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Good morning friends!
Well that 5000 mark was hit and even Michael Jordon is a bit envious of that elevation and hang time!!! lol Another record setting day folks!
Markets still remain intact from a structural standpoint but things are now getting a bit stretched! It doesn't mean it still can't go higher (and it probably will) but we MUST remain vigilant!!
As I noted yesterday, there was some weakness I saw two days ago in a few of the Mag 7 names but that was short lived. As mentioned.....
I am seeing cracks in some of the Magnificent 7 as there was noticeable weakness in META, NFLX and NVDA. This could be something or it could be nothing at this point as one day does not make a trend, but keep an eye on these three for short plays. They have certainly been bid up to the moon!
Well obviously it turned out to be nothing but we must keep an eye out for these kinds of signs because one of these days the pullbacks will hold and the overstretched names will be first to sell off!!! And when the trap door does actually get swung open and we head lower, we don't want to be caught flat footed. As I have stated many times before the hard part is figuring out when. Remember I do not have a crystal ball but we will see some tell tale signs!!!
Yesterday's gap and hold is very bullish and we actually had whats called a "P" pattern. Look at the profile pic below and you can see the market profile session looks like a small case letter "P". This happens when people are 1.) either too short and the market squeezes them or 2.) there is some kind of news or emotionally charged trading action and I think yesterday we had a bit of both!!! So far there seems to be no end in sight to this rally, and don't fight it, but remain on the lookout for the eventual "rug pull"
As always please pay attention to the profile pic below. The levels we have given out have been money and it's not that I know anything ahead of time but when I see price action hold above (or below) key levels then you want to pay close attention and go with that trend!!! Remember when I said 5000 is our target if 4975 held?! Well that kept me on the long side yesterday and it paid off.
Futures are mixed this morning and overnight inventory mixed to net short and we are opening inside of prior days range. No real "edge" at the bell but today is pretty simple....if we hold the "Key Zone" noted on the profile pic below, then nothing changes and bulls remain in firm control. Overnight low and 1/2 back are right around 5004 and the top of the spike is around 5002 so as long as price remains bid above those levels buyers are still present. Below those levels sets up a nice short opportunity and first target would be 4997 then 4990! We shall see!
Another new VPOC below at 4962 so we not sit with 17 untested points of control below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5030-5040
downside target is: 5010-5000
/NQ upside target is: 17,900-17,925
downside target is: 17,825-17,800
/RTY upside target is: 1970-1972
downside target is: 1957-1955
Economic Data Today:
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM EST
Wholesale Inventories (preliminary) @ 10:00 AM EST
Natural Gas Inventories @ 10:30 AM EST
**FED member Barkin speaks today.
More Color.......
/ES - Demand at $5000- 4990 and at then at $ 4950-4960
- Consolidating inside Supply at $4020-4030
- I want to play long off failed rallies to the downside
- Below $4990 leaves room to the downside
SPY - Key Demand at $492-493 then at $488-490
- Key Supply zone at $498-497 with Supply flipping to Demand at $488
- Ideally I want to see a sell off into $493 are to play long
- I would like to see sellers trapped at the open to play a break and retest long
from $495 targeting $497. If price breaks below $492 I will look short
SPX - Key Demand areas at $4920- 4930 and at $4970-4980
- I would like to play long after sellers become trapped above $4970
- Below $4969 leaves room to the downside to play short off a break and retest
/NQ - Consolidating inside Supply at Key Supply at $17880- 17850
- Supply flipped to Demand at $17750 -17780
- I would only want to play short if price breaks and hold below $17740
QQQ - Consolidating inside Supply at $433-432
- Supply flipped to Demand at $429-431 with Demand below that at $ 427-425
- Ideally I would like to see sellers trapped at the open play long above $430
Also Watching …
AMD - Key Demand at $168-166 looking to play long off a break and retest
- Demand flipped to Supply at $173 -175 ( failed rallies below I will look to short)
META - Key Demand at $450-455 with Supply at $470-473
TSLA - Gap Up into Key Supply overnight at $190-188
- Key Demand below that is at $180-182
AMZN - Up trend from Demand at $$168-167 with Supply above at $174-172
- A failed rally above $173 I will look to play short targeting $171.50
- Sellers at the open trapped above $168 I will look to play long
DIS - Earning made price jump with some consolidation / Demand at $104-105
- I would like to play long off a break and retest $104/ below I will play short
Have a fantastic day.
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