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Good Tuesday morning and Happy New Year's Eve!!
It's hard to believe but 2024 is about to be in our rear view mirror and we would like to wish everyone a very Happy New Year and a great and prosperous 2025! There will be some new things coming in the new year for subscribers so we are very happy you are here with us for the journey! Trading is not easy but we hope you are finding value in the information we provide everyday and we strive to make it even better for 2025!!
Yesterday, sellers won the day and the key levels proved to be valuable once again! As we mentioned, because of the way price action was acting prior to the bell, we were looking for downside moves if certain price points could not be taken out above and to look for lower targets, and this turned out to be the case. As stated....
"We are already below Friday's low and overnight inventory is almost 100% net short on a true gap lower, and on top of that people are trapped above, so this is a recipe for lower! If sellers keep price below 5982.75, then look for the additional lower targets of 5950, then 5915, then ultimately the Friday December 20th low of 5866!"
Well early on in the session, buyers were overwhelmed by sellers and our target of 5915 was almost nailed. Yesterday's low was 5918...not too shabby! Now ultimately the buyers stepped back in and took price over Friday's low of 5982.75 however, it barely broke back into range and closed back outside @ 5958.75. This is still bearish! Heading into the holiday, and yes the markets will be closed tomorrow for New Years Day, today's price action could be tricky.
In the key levels and profile pic below, we had a fairly decent range yesterday where there was a great two sided battle between the bulls and the bears, and I expect more of the same today. Any price action that stays below the POC @ 5980.25 still gives the edge to the bears. However, if bulls step back in and take out the POC, then look for a retest of Fridays low and if price can stay above that level for at least 15 minutes, then look for upper targets! If price cannot get back above the POC and price remains anywhere between the POC @ 5980.25 and 1/2 back @ 5956, then expect back and forth choppy action in that zone!
Only if tempo and momentum accelerates to the downside and takes out 5956, then look for lower targets with the first being 5944 which is the overnight low, then 5941 which is the Value Area Low, then 5918 which is yesterday's low. Then of course 5910-5900. Futures are trading @ 5972 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: YES another new VPOC was added above yesterday @ 6027.25 so we now have 5 above and 26 below current price with the closest sitting @ 5870. You can see how the VPOC's are now stacking above versus how they were continually stacking below for a very long time. This is a significant change and a bearish tell!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6000 - 6010
Key Levels: 5980.25 POC 5956 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5910 - 5900
/NQ upside target is: 21,615 - 21,645
Key Level: 21,520 POC
downside target is : 21,230 - 21,200
/RTY upside target is: 2265 - 2270
downside target is: 2225 - 2210
Economic Data: VERY LIGHT
4-Week Bill Settlement
8-Week Bill Settlement
4-Month Bill Settlement
2-Yr Note Settlement
5-Yr Note Settlement
5-Yr TIPS Settlement
7-Yr Note Settlement
20-Yr Bond Settlement
Case-Shiller Home Price Index @ 9:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index @ 9:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
8-Week Bill Announcement @11:00 AM ET
4-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
SIFMA Early Close @ 2:00 PM ET
Farm Prices @ 3:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - KEY DEMAND $5910-20 then below that at $5880-60 with Supply $6040-20
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $6040 after a pullback below $6030 looking to play SHORT targeting $6005 then $5985
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $6040 after a break and retest above $6045 - 50 playing LONG targeting $6100 then new HOD.
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SPY - Demand at $586-587 with Supply at $595- 594
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $587 after a break and retest above $588 looking to play LONG targeting high $590 then breakout into $591 or strong breakout above and pullback hold from $595 where Supply flips back to Demand targeting $597 then $598
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $594 after a retest from $593 targeting $592 then breakdown into $591
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/NQ - Key Demand at $21255 - 21350 with Supply at $21750 -21700
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $21750 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $21755 targeting $21825 then $21900
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $21700 looking to play SHORT after a pullback holds below $21650 targeting $21550 then $21500
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QQQ - Key Demand at $518-519 with Supply above at $523- 522
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $522 looking to play long from a break and retest at $523 targeting high $524s then a breakout into $525 and $526
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $522 after a break and retest below $521 looking to play short targeting $519 then mid high $516s
Also watching
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NVDA Demand flipped back to Supply at $138-137 with Demand below at $135-134
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $138 after a break and retest from $137 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $ $135 then high $133s
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $138 after a break and retest from $139 looking to play long targeting $141 then $142
Have a great day and a very HAPPY NEW YEAR!!
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