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Good Tuesday morning,
Down go the bulls!
It was an epic battle yesterday as the bears punched first in the overnight session as sellers pushed price down, taking futures lower early into Monday's trade, however, that didn't last long as buyers re-emerged and took prices right back up! Basically, from around 10:00 AM EST right up until 2:50 PM EST, buyers were winning the day. Things were looking very good for the bulls heading into the final hour of trade yesterday until the bears delivered a devastating blow, and knocked the bulls right off of their feet! Selling became very aggressive and the tide turned!
Now please remember what we said yesterday morning.....the market was up 17% from the April 7th lows, and up 3% last week alone. The market was overbought and needed to correct, and that is exactly what we saw yesterday afternoon. This is not a surprise at all! As always, stay fluid with the markets, and today this is more important than ever. Why? Because we have a true gap lower outside of prior day's range and overnight inventory is 100% net short, so this tells us there could be a fade higher first before more downside! Unless buyers can take price back into yesterday's range today, look for more downside in the near future!
In the profile pic and key targets below, /ES futures are down -50 points right now, and currently we have a true gap below the prior day's range. The first key level to watch today once the opening bell rings is the overnight low, currently at 5616.50. IF price can move below that level, and then move back higher over it, that is a long signal as overnight inventory needs to correct. If the overnight low does not get taken out, then look for a long over the first one-minute bar high. Stop would be just underneath the one-minute low, then of course trail stop to break even as soon as possible, then trail stop higher. In either scenario, if the trade plays out that way to the long side, look for overnight 1/2 back at 5644, then a gap fill to prior day's low at 5655.25. Then monitor for continuation and look for upper targets.
Now, if sellers keep price below the first one minute high, or below the overnight low (whatever that happens to be once the opening bell rings), then that is a "go with" trade. The rule is: go with all gaps that do not fill right away, so please keep that in mind. The lower targets are 5590 - 5580 then possibly 5560 - 5550
Futures are trading at 5620 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: Another brand new VPOC was added yesterday, however, this one was added above price at 5709. We also took out 5658 below as we mentioned was in play. We now have 7 above and 16 below. Closest one to the downside is 5536 but that should not be in play today, but obviously we never know for sure. At least now you have the targets!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5700 - 5720
Key Level: 5655.25 Yesterday's low and ON 1/2 back 5645
downside target is: 5590 - 5580 then 5560 - 5550
/NQ upside target is: 20,200 - 20,240
Key Level: 19,985 Prior day's low and 19,930 ON 1/2 back
downside target is : 19,870 - 19,840
/RTY upside target is: 2035 - 2045
downside target is: 2000 - 1980
Economic Data: ( Red Star)
4-Week Bill Settlement
8-Week Bill Settlement
4-Month Bill Settlement
FOMC Meeting Begins
International Trade in Goods and Services @ 8:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement
More Color By : Rich Rickus
- /ES - Key Demand $5655 then at $5630 with Supply at $5706
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5650 looking to play a break and retest above $5660 long targeting $5685 then $5710
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5640 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5630 targeting $5605 then a break down into $5590
- SPY Key demand at then at $562 -561 with Supply above at $567-568
Bullish Sellers trapped above $562 looking to play a break and retest from $563 long targeting $565 then a breakout mid high $566s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $561 after a break and retest below $559 targeting $557’s then a breakdown into $555’s
- /NQ Key demand at $19960 with Supply above at $20200
Bullish Sellers trapped above $19950 looking to play a break and retest above $19960 long targeting $20,100 then a breakout back into low $2200’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $19900 looking to play short from below $19850 targeting $19780 then $19650
- QQQ Key Demand at $483 with Supply at $490-489
Bullish Sellers trapped above $483 looking to play a break and retest from $484 targeting $486 then a breakout into low mid $488s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $483 looking to play a break and retest short from $482 targeting $481 then $479s
Have a great day!!
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