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Good Wednesday morning!
The bulls tried yesterday but the picture above says it all. "Epic failure!" The bounce Tuesday lasted about 45 minutes and then sellers re-entered the fray and took price right back down. That being said, the playbook was laid out for you, both bullish and bearish, and the key levels and targets worked their magic yet again! As mentioned in Morning Color prior to the opening bell yesterday.....
"If sellers take price back down below 5180 - 5160, then look for VAH (Value Area High) at 5138.50, then ON low at 5115 then the POC (Point of Control) at 5095.50. If selling persists beyond the POC, then we could be seeing the lower targets of 4950 - 4910."
Yesterday's low was 4940.50.
With the VIX (Volatility Index aka the Fear Gauge) over 57 expect wild, HUGE intraday swings, so please take that into account. If you are not used to trading these types of markets, and most are not, then you should be sitting on your hands and waiting it out. There is no harm in holding cash.
In the profile pic and key levels below, overnight inventory is almost 100% net short and we are currently slightly above the prior low at 4940.50. IF buyers can push and keep price above 4940.50, then look for 4964, then the POC at 5018.50, then upper targets. If sellers take price back below 4940.50, then look for lower targets at 4890-4860. That being said, 4860 is a very key level and I will be looking for a buy down in that area. I will keep a close eye and trail my stop up if we get the bounce. Futures are trading at 4967 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added or taken out yesterday so we still have 9 above and 18 below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5090 - 5140 then 5180 - 5200
Key Levels: 4940.50 Prior Low and VAL then 4964 then 5018.50
downside target is: 4890 - 4860 key level
/NQ upside target is: 17,375 - 17,550 then 18,100 - 18,150
Key Level: 17,693.50 Prior day low
downside target is : 16,750 - 16,700
/RTY upside target is: 1825 - 1855
downside target is: 1700 - 1680
Economic Data: Light Day Today
MBA Mortgage Applications @ 7:00 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary) @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary) @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
Thomas Barkin Speaks @ 12:30 PM ET
10-Yr Note Auction @ 1:00 PM ET
FOMC Minutes @ 2:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $4978 then at $5010 and above at $5114 with Supply at $5286 then $5330
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $$5330 looking to play a break and retest above $5340 long targeting $5385 then $5420s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5110 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5100 targeting $5050 then a break down into $4980s
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SPY Key demand at 507- 509 with Supply above at $525-524 and $533
Bullish Sellers trapped above $525 looking to play a break and retest from $526 long targeting $528 then a breakout mid high $529s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $507 after a break and retest below $506 targeting $504 then a breakdown into $502s
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/NQ Key demand at $17892 then $17600 with Supply above at $18300
Bullish Sellers trapped above $17900 looking to play a break and retest above $17910 long targeting $18100 then a breakout back into low $18300’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $17600 looking to play short from $17570 targeting a breakdown into $17290 then high $17110
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QQQ Key Demand at $414 then at $420 with Supply at $444 then at $449-450
Bullish Sellers trapped above $420 looking to play a break and retest from $421 targeting $423 then a breakout into low mid $425s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $420looking to play a break and retest short from $419 targeting $417s then $415s
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AMD - Key Demand at $82-83 with Supply above at $89-88
Bullish - Sellers trapped above $82 with it forming Support looking to play a break and rest long from $83 targeting $85s then $86s
Bearish - Buyers trapped below $82s after a break and retest below $81 targeting $79 then low LOD $77
Have a great day!!
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