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Good Friday morning!
Yesterday left me feeling a bit uneasy as traders and investors took back a big chunk of Wednesday's gains, however, the /ES closed in an area that still leaves the door open for potentially higher prices. As the sign above says, "Volatility Ahead". We have all recently seen some of the most volatile trading in many years, so expect more of the same, as this is not going to change anytime soon.
The VIX still sits in the 40's, so intraday ranges will continue to be huge. To put this into context and perspective, not too long ago, we had anywhere from a 30-50 point expected daily range in the /ES futures. Yesterday's range was over 240 points and the day before was over 545 points! Today, we could see anywhere between 150 - 350 point range! The /NQ futures are even bigger with expected ranges between 500 - 1600 points! As we said yesterday, expect continued intraday volatility!
In the profile pic and key levels below, futures are higher across the board, however, overnight inventory is mixed. There is no edge in either direction once the opening bell rings. That being said, I have identified the key levels to watch as the day progresses! If buyers can keep prices over the 1/2 back at 5269 and over the POC at 5302, then we will be looking for upper targets. If the buying pressure continues and the shorts get squeezed even further, then we could be looking at our second set of upper targets.
If sellers take the price below the POC and then below 1/2 back, we should focus on lower targets! Door # 3 of course is balance. IF price stays between 5375 and 5269, then expect back and forth responsive trade. Traders are getting fatigued and we could be in for chop after all the volatility we have seen. Watch your backs and guard your wallets! Futures are trading at 5316 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: A new VPOC was added yesterday at 5400. High of the day was 5389. That new VPOC is definitely in play today. We now have 8 above and still 18 below!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5375 - 5400 then 5450 - 5500
Key Levels: 5302 POC then 5269 Prior day 1/2 back
downside target is: 5200 - 5150 then 5050 - 5025
/NQ upside target is: 19,450 - 19,500 then 19,700 - 19,800
Key Level: 18,486 POC
downside target is : 18,000 - 17,900
/RTY upside target is: 1950 - 2000
downside target is: 1800 - 1750
Economic Data: Red Star Event Today
PPI-Final Demand @ 8:30 AM ET
Susan Collins Speaks @ 9:00 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 AM ET
Alberto Musalem Speaks @ 10:00 AM ET
John Williams Speaks @ 11:00 AM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5250 then $5150-5175 with Supply at $5400 -5425
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5250 looking to play a break and retest above $5275 long targeting $5316 then $5368s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5250 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5240 targeting $5215 then a break down into $5175
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SPY Key demand at $515 with Supply above at $533-30 and $540
Bullish Sellers trapped above $534 looking to play a break and retest from $535 long targeting $543 then a breakout mid high $545s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $520 after a break and retest below $519 targeting $518 then a breakdown into $516
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/NQ Key demand at $17919 with Supply above at $19200
Bullish Sellers trapped above $19000 looking to play a break and retest above $19115 long targeting $19250 then a breakout back into low $19400’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $17919 looking to play short from $17900 targeting a breakdown into $17800s then high $17610
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QQQ Key Demand at $444 - 445 Supply $455-454
Bullish Sellers trapped above $444 looking to play a break and retest from $445 targeting $446 then a breakout into low mid $448
Bearish Buyers trapped below $443 looking to play a break and retest short from $442 targeting $440s then $438s
Have a great day and a tremendous weekend!!
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