Market Comments: Petroleum futures are higher

It's a turnaround Tuesday, as prices in the energy markets are all taking on a firm tone this morning. The bullish momentum appears linked to traders weighing Middle East disruptions and the supply outlook.

On the domestic front, the threatened closure of the Massachusetts import facility sparked concern about Northeast energy supplies.

No new news out of the Red Sea over the weekend; US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in the UAE today discussing possible peace efforts that he says are needed to avoid a broader conflict in the Gaza Strip. Hapag-Lloyd, as well as Maersk, are continuing to divert vessels away from the disputed area this week as of Monday morning.

Overall, oil and tanker traffic in the Red Sea was stable in December, even though many container ships have been rerouted due to attacks by Iran-Houthi militants. The attacks have driven shipping costs sharply higher along with insurance premiums, but have had less impact than feared on oil flows, with shippers continuing to use the key East-West passage. The Houthis, who have said they are targeting Israel-bound vessels, have essentially attacked non-petroleum goods shipments thus far.

Shell said its fourth-quarter earnings took a hit of up to $4.5 billion in impairments that were offset by significantly higher gas trading, while its overall production volumes are on track to meet targets.

Exxon Mobil expects up to $2.6 billion in impairments in the fourth quarter for its upstream business, primarily related to idle assets in California.
Some softness unfolded in the soybean market at the start of 2024, as prices are trading around $12.34 compared to the high in 2023 at $16.16. This is a $3.82 spread. Some weakness in the near term has been established due to portions of South America receiving much-needed soaking rainfall over North and Central Brazil. In addition, the market is squaring up positions ahead of this week's USDA report, which will be out Friday at 11 AM central.
There appears to be a correlation between the price of oil declining after Saudi Arabia cut official selling prices for all regions, the most significant sign that fundamentals are not improving. Global benchmark Brent fell toward $76 a barrel after rising 2.2 percent last week. State producer Saudi Aramco lowers its flagship Arab Light price to Asis by more than the expected $2 a barrel due to persistent weakness in the global market. It is currently the lowest price it has been since November 2021.
Well, it appears as if Old Man Winter has finally decided to make an appearance in 2024, as the current 8 to 14-day weather model, which is valid through January 21st, is calling for below-average temperatures across the vast majority of the middle sections of the U.S. The propane industry will welcome the colder temperatures as demand for their product has been limited in the second half of 2023 because of warmer-than-normal temperatures across the United States. Current propane stocks are more than adequate to meet demand, but if prolonged cold temperatures would hang around, it would undoubtedly dent domestic stocks.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
12/7/2023: Contract 10% of your spring and fall diesel needs bringing the total to 20% for each timeframe.
12/7/2023: Contract 10% of your summer gasoline needs bringing the total to 20%.
12/7/2023: Fill diesel tanks for you and your customers.
11/16/2023: Contract 10% of your fall/winter 24/25 propane needs.
10/4/2023: Contract 10% of your spring/fall diesel needs.
10/4/2023: Contract 10% of your summer gasoline needs.
The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by MID-CO COMMODITIES, INC. or GROWMARK, Inc. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named. This is not independent research and is provided as a service. As such, this is considered a solicitation.

We require all contracts, futures, and/or option orders be called into our office.

Bridget Chinowth/Melissa Grant/Brian Keith/Eugene McGillian
Jeff O’Brian/Jacqueline Witte/Scott Wilson

Energy Risk Management MID-CO COMMODITIES, INC   
Energy Risk Management
800-550-4820

Bridget Chinowth
309-557-6301
Melissa Grant
309-557-6080
Brian Keith
309-557-6304
Eugene McGillian
309-557-6388
Jeff O’Brian
309-557-6335
Jacqueline Witte
309-557-6313
Scott Wilson
309-557-6435
Energy Customer Care
309-557-6673