Market Comments: Petroleum futures markets are trading mixed his morning.

Crude is higher this morning but had a weaker tone overnight, due to Chinese industrial output data disappointed, although April's refining numbers pointed to more positive signs of demand.

China has dramatically increased its use of the yuan to buy Russian commodities over the past year, with nearly all of its purchases of oil, coal, and some metals are now settled in the Chinese currency instead of dollars. Chinese imports of major commodities from its northern neighbor totaled $88.3 billion in 2022, up 52 percent from 2021 as reformers utilities and smelters snapped up discounted Russian resources after Western buyers shunned the trade shortly after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations plan to tighten sanctions on Russia at their summit in Japan this week, with stops aimed at energy and exports aiding Moscow's war efforts. New measures announced by the leaders during the May 19-21 meetings will target sanctions evasion involving third countries, and seek to undermine Russia's future energy production and curb trade that supports Russia's military. Separately, U.S. officials also expect G7 members will be free to adjust their approach to sanctions so that, at least for certain categories of goods, all exports are automatically banned unless they are on a list of approved items.

In his first interview since taking office, Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said that "there will be no additional reduction, as for Iraq, we cannot reduce further." OPEC+ cut production in late 2022 as the demand outlook weakened, then surprised markets with another cut of 1.2 million bpd in early April. The next meeting is scheduled for June 4.

According to the USDA, U.S. corn planting stands at 65 percent completed vs. 40 percent last week and the five-year average of 5 percent. As for soybeans, 49 percent of the crop is planted, vs 35 percent last week and the five-year average of 36 percent.
According to the EIA, they revised down the crude oil price forecast in May because of rapid declines in the price of crude oil at the end of April and in early May. Between April 12, 2023, and May 4, 2023, the price of Brent crude oil fell $16 per barrel to $73/b. Over the same period, the price of WTI crude fell $15/b to $69/b. The declines followed news of a decrease in China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, an indicator of economic conditions, which added to concerns about China's economic growth and to concerns regarding a possible U.S. recession. Additional concerns about the banking sector following the closure and sale of Frist Republic Bank also added uncertainty in the market. Oil flows from Russia have also remained higher than expected, raising global supply.
Last year the soybean market topped out at $17.84 before beginning a shift into a slide to the downside with a period of a slight rebound. Recently prices slipped below the psychological $14.00 support region but quickly rebounded to trade back above it. Some of the weakness has come at the hands of the USDA expecting record U.S. corn and soybean production this fall. However, the corn market might be propped up to a certain degree due to U.S. wheat stockpiles expected to tall to a 16-year low (see Graph Below). U.S. wheat fields have become so plagued by drought that farmers are now poised to abandon crops at the highest rate in more than a century. Producers are expected to harvest about 67 percent of their planted acres, according to the USDA. If realized that would be the lowest harvest ratio since 1917. If wheat prices would run into the summer months, it has the potential to pull U.S. corn prices higher due to the interchangeability of the two commodities.
Conway contract prices for fall winter 2023/2024 continue to decline and have dipped below the 3-year average but continue to hold over the five-year average. Some of the recent weaknesses could be linked to a softening crude oil market and builds in propane stocks. The latest DOE report, which was released last week pegged U.S. propane stocks at 61.4 million barrels vs. 59.3 million last week and 44.2 million this same time a year ago.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
5/4/2023: Contract 10% of your Fall/Winter 23/24 Propane needs, bringing the total to 30%.
5/4/2023: Contract 15% of your Summer Gasoline needs, bringing the total to 30%.
4/27/2023: Contract 5% of your Fall Diesel needs, bringing the total to 30%.
4/27/2023: Contract 10% of your Fall/Winter 23/24 Propane needs, bringing the total to 20%.
1/27/2022: Contract 10% of your Spring and Fall Diesel needs, bringing the total to 25%.
12/9/2022: Contract 5% of your Spring and Fall diesel needs bringing the total to 15%.
12/9/2022: Contract 5% of your Summer Gasoline needs bringing the total to 15%.
12/7/2022: Fill diesel storage for you and your customers.
11/18/2022: Contract 10% of your Spring and Fall Diesel.
11/18/2022: Contract 10% of your Summer Gasoline.
9/27/2022: Contract 10% of your Fall/Winter 23/24 propane.
The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by MID-CO COMMODITIES, INC. or GROWMARK, Inc. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named. This is not independent research and is provided as a service. As such, this is considered a solicitation.

We require all contracts, futures, and/or option orders be called into our office.

Bridget Chinowth/Melissa Grant/Brian Keith/Eugene McGillian
Jeff O’Brian/Jacqueline Witte/Scott Wilson

Energy Risk Management MID-CO COMMODITIES, INC   
Energy Risk Management
800-550-4820

Bridget Chinowth
309-557-6301
Melissa Grant
309-557-6080
Brian Keith
309-557-6304
Eugene McGillian
309-557-6388
Jeff O’Brian
309-557-6335
Jacqueline Witte
309-557-6313
Scott Wilson
309-557-6435
Energy Customer Care
309-557-6673