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#FROM THE DIRECTOR'S DESK#
Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray Are Sleepwalking into War
The 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, which ended Ethiopia's two-year conflict in Tigray, is unraveling. Renewed clashes among factions within the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) threaten to reignite widespread violence. The original war, from 2020 to 2022, resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and displaced millions. The ceasefire aimed to establish an interim Tigray administration and facilitate disarmament, but unresolved issues persist. Eritrea, excluded from the Pretoria talks, reportedly maintains forces in parts of Tigray, exacerbating tensions. A power struggle between TPLF leaders Debretsion Gebremichael and Getachew Reda has further destabilized the region. Ethiopia's renewed pursuit of Red Sea access, particularly through Eritrea's port of Assab, adds complexity. A resurgence of conflict could destabilize neighboring areas, including Sudan and Somalia, and strain relations with Egypt over Nile water rights. Immediate diplomatic intervention is essential to prevent a regional crisis.
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Illicit Oil Trade in Libya: How Political Rivalries are Fueling Instability
Libya's illicit oil trade, involving armed factions and international smugglers, diverts resources from the National Oil Corporation, undermining economic stability. The eastern government's authorization of private entities like Arkenu Oil Company to export oil independently has generated over $600 million since 2023. Concurrently, the Tripoli-based administration's fuel subsidies enable smuggling, with gasoline priced at approximately 0.150 Libyan dinars per liter, among the world's lowest. These practices exacerbate political divisions and deprive the national budget of essential revenue.
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Algeria Expels Moroccan Deputy Consul in Oran
Algeria has expelled Moroccan Deputy Consul Mohamed Sefiani from Oran, declaring him "persona non grata" and ordering his departure within 48 hours. The Algerian Foreign Ministry cited unspecified "suspicious actions" incompatible with diplomatic duties and in violation of the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations. This incident further strains Algerian-Moroccan relations, already tense since Algeria severed diplomatic ties with Morocco in August 2021.
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Morocco Sees F-35 in Action, A Source Hints at 32-Jet Mega-deal
Morocco is nearing a $17 billion agreement to acquire 32 F-35 fighter jets from the United States, potentially becoming the first Arab nation to operate these advanced aircraft.This move aims to modernize the Royal Moroccan Air Force's capabilities amid regional security concerns.The acquisition would significantly enhance Morocco's aerial combat proficiency, positioning it strategically within North Africa's evolving military dynamics.
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UfM Warns of Rapidly disappearing Euro-Mediterranean glaciers ahead of World Water Day
The Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) reports that Euro-Mediterranean glaciers, particularly in the Alps and Pyrenees, have diminished by 40% over the past 25 years, with many projected to vanish in the coming decades. This accelerated melting threatens to exacerbate flooding, droughts, and sea-level rise in a region already grappling with water scarcity, where over 250 million people are expected to face water poverty by 2040. The UfM advocates for integrated strategies addressing the interconnected challenges of water, energy, food, and ecosystems.
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Tunisia: Chinese Company Ready to Buy Cement Factory for $100 Million
A Chinese cement company plans to acquire a Tunisian factory for over $100 million, marking one of the largest Chinese direct investments in Tunisia in recent years. The company intends to upgrade the facility with modern, environmentally friendly technologies to enhance productivity and efficiency.
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World Bank Photobook: Shades of Libya: Contrasts, Hope, and Resilience
The World Bank unveiled "Shades of Libya: Contrasts, Hope, and Resilience," a photobook highlighting Libya's diverse landscapes, rich culture, and the resilience of its people. Featuring work from young Libyan photographers, the publication aims to broaden the narrative beyond the country's political instability, emphasizing its potential for growth and prosperity.
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF) | DATA MAPPER & MOODY'S ANALYTICS
Mauritania Economy Snapshot
| Mauritania's economy is dominated by extractive industries (oil and mines), fisheries and agriculture. Half the population still depends on farming and raising livestock, even though many nomads and subsistence farmers were forced into the cities by recurrent droughts in the 1970s, 1980s and 2000s. Recently, GDP growth has been driven largely by foreign investment in the mining and oil sectors. Mauritania's extensive mineral resources include iron ore, gold, copper, gypsum, and phosphate rock, and exploration is ongoing for tantalum, uranium, crude oil, and natural gas. | | |
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ATLANTIC COUNCIL | NORTH AFRICA INITIATIVE
Trump 2.0 and the Middle East
Adapting to a Shifting Political Landscape
April 02, 2025 | 09:00 AM — 12:30 PM ET
The Atlantic Council's North Africa Initiative, in collaboration with the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, will host a public event to analyze President Donald Trump's first hundred days in office, focusing on his administration's policies toward the Middle East and North Africa and their impact on regional geopolitics.
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INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH & STUDIES ON THE ARAB & MUSLIM WORLD | BI-ANNUAL SEMINARS
Geopolitics of the Maghreb
March 18 — May 20, 2025 | 06:30 PM to 08:30 PM
The Maghreb, i.e., Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya constitutes a vast area bordering the rest of the Arab world and the Sahel and an immediate neighbor of the European Union, separated only by the Mediterranean. Since their independence in the 1950s and 1960s, these countries continue to face significant challenges, particularly economic, political and security, which directly affect their stability as well as their development prospects. The objective of this seminar is to study the main components of these challenges while attempting to restore them, both in their immediate context – national and regional – as well as in all the much broader ones – globalization, in particular – which make the Maghreb a necessary actor in world developments.
Classes are held in French.
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MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE
Sovereignty First: Reshaping International Cooperation in North Africa
North African nations are increasingly adopting a "sovereignty-first" approach, favoring bilateral agreements over multilateral partnerships to assert greater control over their domestic and foreign policies. This shift is evident in Morocco's diversification of arms imports following the 2020 Abraham Accords and Algeria's expanded military procurements from Turkey and China, balancing its traditional ties with Russia. Tunisia has implemented nationalist economic measures, including 2022 import restrictions on various consumer goods. Public sentiment, influenced by perceptions of unequal relationships with Western nations, has led countries like Algeria and Egypt to deepen engagements with China, attracted by its non-conditional loans and arms deals. This pragmatic, results-oriented strategy reflects a preference for concrete benefits over broad political commitments, reshaping international cooperation dynamics in the region.
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AN AFRICANIST PERSPECTIVE
The Problem of Organizing Weak States; And Why Africa Needs A New Model of Pan-Africanism
African international organizations (IOs) often struggle with effectiveness due to the inherent weaknesses of their member states. This dynamic leads to limited delegation of authority, hindering robust regional cooperation. To address this, a shift toward a pragmatic Pan-Africanism is proposed, granting regional powers greater influence in continental affairs. This approach suggests that empowering nations like Nigeria and South Africa to lead could enhance policy implementation and strengthen IOs. Such a model aligns with Pan-African ideals by prioritizing the collective advancement of African peoples over rigid state equality, aiming to bolster the continent's resilience in a multipolar world.
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BROOKINGS
Leveraging Africa’s Inner Strength to Realize Its Full Economic Potential
Africa's economic advancement hinges on harnessing its internal strengths: abundant natural resources, a burgeoning youth population, and expanding digital innovation. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), operational since January 2021, has bolstered intra-African trade, which previously accounted for only 12-18% of total trade. Effective management of natural capital, exemplified by Botswana's mining sector, can drive prosperity and reduce inequality. Strategic global partnerships further enhance Africa's private sector development and sustainable growth. By capitalizing on these assets and fostering regional integration, Africa can position itself as a formidable player in the global economy.
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WORLD BANK | BLOG
Connecting 300 million People to Electricity and Building A Resilient Future in Africa
The World Bank Group and the African Development Bank have launched "Mission 300," aiming to provide electricity access to 300 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030. Currently, nearly 600 million individuals in the region lack electricity, representing 83% of the world's unelectrified population. This initiative seeks to enhance quality of life, stimulate economic growth, and improve resilience against climate-related challenges. Access to electricity is expected to boost healthcare and education services, create jobs, and support climate adaptation efforts. The program will focus on expanding renewable energy infrastructure, integrating digital technologies, and strengthening energy systems to withstand extreme weather events. By addressing the energy deficit, "Mission 300" aims to foster sustainable development and reduce poverty across the continent.
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WORLD BANK | BLOG
MENA is Open to Work: Tackling the Jobs Deficit
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces a persistent employment crisis, with youth unemployment at 25%—the highest globally—and female labor force participation at just 16%.Despite a 40% increase in average years of schooling over the past two decades, job creation remains insufficient.By 2050, nearly 300 million young people in MENA will seek employment.Addressing this challenge requires structural reforms to stimulate private sector growth, enhance education systems to align with market needs, and implement policies that promote higher workforce participation, particularly among women.Additionally, tackling widespread informality is crucial, as informal employment comprises 69% of total employment in Egypt, 59% in Morocco, and 77% in Jordan.Comprehensive strategies are essential to unlock MENA's human capital potential and drive inclusive economic development.
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BROOKINGS
Morocco’s Journey toward Achieving the SDGs: Prioritizing Economic Resilience and Social Transformation
Morocco has transitioned from a low-income to a lower-middle-income country, achieving an average annual GDP growth of 3.2% over the past decade. Strategic investments in renewable energy, automotive manufacturing, and agriculture have diversified its economy. The Noor Ouarzazate Solar Complex, for instance, has positioned Morocco as a leader in solar energy. Despite these advancements, challenges persist, including economic disparities and vulnerability to climate change. The government aims to generate 52% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, with specific targets of 20% from solar, 20% from wind, and 12% from hydropower. Continued reforms focus on enhancing education, fostering innovation, and improving governance to promote inclusive growth and social transformation.
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WORLD BANK | REPORT
Global Economic Prospects (January 2025)
Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development. Emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the 21st century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies feeble catch-up toward those of advanced economies. Most low-income countries are not on course to graduate to middle-income status by 2050.
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POLICY CENTER FOR THE NEW SOUTH | PUBLICATION
The Water-Energy Nexus: The Path to Solving the Water Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa
MENA faces a severe water crisis, with 12 of the world’s 17 most water-stressed countries. Climate change, population growth, inefficient water management, and weak governance drive this challenge. The region must integrate renewable energy, especially solar power, into water solutions like desalination. Inaction could shrink GDP by up to 14% by 2050, while a $500 billion investment over the next decade could secure water resources.
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MIXED MIGRATION CENTER | RESEARCH REPORT
Beyond Restrictions: Migration & Smuggling Across the Mediterranean, the Atlantic & the English Channel
Against the backdrop of increasingly restrictive migration policies, this study explores recent irregular migration dynamics to the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom(UK). It aims to understand how migration and smuggling dynamics have shifted since 2023 and the impact of these shifts on people on the move. It also considers the trends and changes that may continue to emerge in the face of increasing migration restrictions in Europe.
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MIXED MIGRATION CENTER | POLICY PAPER
The Role of Smuggling in Shaping Migrants' Journeys, Finances and Risks in the Central Sahel
This paper looks at the role of smugglers in facilitating migrant movement amid the worsening political and security situation in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Findings reveal that migrants rely on smugglers to bypass occasional border restrictions between members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and to navigate increasingly dangerous routes within Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—three countries that formed the Alliance of Sahel States (ASS) in 2023.
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GLOBAL INITIATIVE AGAINST TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME | REPORT
After the Fall: Russia's Influence on Illicit Economies Post-Wagner
This report assesses what the post-Prigozhin period has meant for Wagner assets in Africa, how Russia’s strategic objectives have become more ambitious, and how these two aspects intersect with the changing political climate in West and Central Africa. Its arguments and conclusions draw upon the GI-TOC’s expertise and networks, coordinated through three regional observatories in Africa and the Observatory of Illicit Markets and the Conflict in Ukraine, permitting a big picture view of the impact of Russia’s invasion on the criminal ecosystem.
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GLOBAL INITIATIVE AGAINST TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME | REPORT
Mercenaries & Illicit Markets: Russia's Africa Corps and the Business of Conflict
This paper reviews how Russia’s Wagner Group and the Africa Corps have developed since the death of Wagner’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in a plane crash (likely to have been a Russian state-sponsored assassination) in August 2023, including their evolving role in illicit markets, and the implications for African peace and security. It builds on research published in a Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC)’s report, The Grey Zone: Russia’s Military, Mercenary and Criminal Engagement in Africa.
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GLOBAL INITIATIVE AGAINST TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME | REPORT
Libya: Hybrid Human Smuggling Systems Prove Resilient
This is the latest GI-TOC monitoring report on human smuggling in Libya. It builds on the series of annual reports that has been issued since 2017, tracking the evolution of human smuggling in Libya, as well as the political, security and economic dynamics that influence it. The report details the key trends and developments in human smuggling in Libya in 2023. In large degree, the year was one of continuity with the patterns seen in 2022.
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BOOK
Un Crime D'ētat
Farid Alilat's book investigates the assassination of Krim Belkacem, a key figure in the Algerian revolution and signatory of the Evian Accords of March 1962, which ended 132 years of French presence in Algeria. On Tuesday, October 20, 1970, Krim Belkacem's body was found in room 1414 of the Intercontinental Hotel in Frankfurt, Germany. He bore signs of strangulation. In the room, two belts, a bouquet of flowers, and an ashtray containing Algerian cigarette butts were discovered. In the bathroom, a broken light bulb from a powerful anesthetic was found. Thus begins the investigation into this state crime, which unfolded between Algiers, Rabat, Paris, Geneva, Lausanne, Beirut, Düsseldorf, and Frankfurt.
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Recruit Exceptional Global Talent from Johns Hopkins SAIS!
JHU SAIS Graduate Students bring advanced expertise, analytical rigor, and a global perspective to complex challenges. With 96% of graduates securing employment or further academic opportunities within six months, our candidates are well-prepared for roles across the private, public, non-profit, and multilateral sectors.
Employers can advertise job and internship openings, access curated resume books of highly qualified candidates, and engage through employer presentations, site visits, and career treks.
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Give today, support students and drive positive change in the world.
Consider contributing to the North Africa Initiative by selecting 'Other' and specifying 'The North Africa Initiative' when making your gift. Your support plays a vital role in advancing research and programming, fostering development, stability, and prosperity in the subregion.
Your gift has an immediate impact on students, staff and scholarships at Johns Hopkins SAIS!
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Stay informed.
Stay ahead.
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See the latest analyses and posts by FPI Senior Fellow & Executive Director of The North Africa Initiative (NAI)
Also, catch Hafed's latest and other columns in Arab News.
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You can contact the North Africa Initiative (NAI) by emailing:
Deputy Director
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The Maghreb Weekly is produced by the North Africa Initiative of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute with a focus on developments that impact the region's dynamics. This weekly digest includes an overview of the latest published research, studies and reports from think tanks and policy centers, covering long-term perspectives and analyses of North Africa's challenges and opportunities. | | Any views expressed in the articles above, as well as any errors, are solely those of the authors. | | | | |
![The flags of Algeria (L) and Morocco flutters in Algiers, Algeria. [FAROUK BATICHE/AFP/Getty Images]](https://files.constantcontact.com/de1a1f11601/e457e796-c72b-497e-9757-fe529f5a2602.jpg)
