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TUESDAY, JULY 02, 2024

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Recent spate of heat waves, prolonged droughts, and intense floods are the clearest indictment yet of climate change. (AFP)

FROM THE DIRECTOR'S DESK


Mounting Costs of Failing to Address Climate Change

ARAB NEWS


In the face of record-breaking temperatures, mounting carbon dioxide emissions, and rampant agricultural disruptions, the world grapples with the escalating costs of climate change inaction. Last year's global temperatures approached critical thresholds, painting a grim picture of our planet on the brink. With agriculture, a cornerstone of human survival, under threat and global food prices spiraling, the urgency for a unified response has never been clearer. However, despite the obvious challenges and a broad consensus on the need for action, the global response remains fragmented and sluggish, hindered by geopolitical tensions and bureaucratic inertia.



A seedling breaks through the cracked earth of a cereal field in Berrechid, Morocco.Photographer: Fadel Senna/AFP/Getty Images

Drought Gripping Morocco Is Bad Omen for Global Food Supplies


BLOOMBERG — Morocco faces a debilitating drought, the worst in three decades, leading to plummeting wheat yields and driving the country towards record wheat imports as local farmers grapple with dry wells and failing crops. The agricultural crisis, compounded by successive droughts, threatens not only Morocco's food security but also risks increasing food prices globally, with potential echoes of the unrest seen during the Arab Spring.

‘Whack-a-mole situation’: Algerian officials wrestle with water shortage anger

‘Whack-a-Mole situation’: Algerian Officials Wrestle with Water Shortage Anger


THE GUARDIAN Algerian officials are struggling to ease public anger caused by intense water shortages, as state efforts to quickly implement desalination projects fall behind needs amidst the worst drought in decades. The drought has led to water rationing and protests in towns like Tiaret, prompting emergency government interventions. Critics argue that Algeria’s response to acute water management problems is reactive and piecemeal, failing to address larger systemic issues of climate change and water scarcity.

Depuis 2021, le président tunisien Kaïs Saïed (ici en août 2023) a révélé sa vraie nature, supprimant la Constitution, l’ARP, les institutions démocratiques, et envoyant en prison une soixantaine d’opposants politiques. © Imago/Abaca

.TRANSLATED.


How “The Mess” Killed Tunisian Democracy


LE POINT — In Tunisia, the term "bordélisation," describing the chaotic and disruptive behavior within the Tunisian Parliament from 2019 to 2021, contributed significantly to the decline of the nascent democracy established after the 2011 revolution. This turmoil, instigated by two populist parties and resulting in physical altercations among members, undermined public trust in democracy and set the stage for a return to dictatorial rule under President Kaïs Saïed.

European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen and Egypt president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi pictured during a diplomatic meeting on March 17, 2024, in Cairo, Egypt. - DIRK WAEM/BELGA MAG/AFP via Getty Images

Egypt Looks Set to Secure $1.1B EU Loan to Boost Economic Recovery


AL-MONITOR — Egypt and the EU finalized a €1 billion ($1.07 billion) macro financial assistance deal. The latest injection is part of a larger package from the 27-member bloc to help the North African country's struggling economy. In March, the EU pledged a €7.4 billion ($8 billion) package as part of a strategic partnership deal that includes €5 billion in loans over four years. The release of the rest of the financial package is contingent on Egypt's adoption of EU-mandated reforms and will be given over three years.

Austria Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer, Greece Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen, Egypt president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides, Belgium Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and Italy Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni pictured at a diplomatic meeting on March 17, 2024 in Cairo, Egypt. © 2024 Olivier Hoslet/AP Photo

Sisi Government's Repression Taints Egypt-EU Investment Conference


HRWThe Egypt-EU Investment Conference, aimed at bringing significant investment to Egypt, is overshadowed by the Sisi government's oppressive policies, despite the EU's recent €7.4 billion pledge to the country. Human Rights Watch and other human rights organizations have called on the EU to tie its financial assistance to Egypt with demands for human rights improvements, criticizing the Egyptian government's unchecked control and economic mismanagement.

Egypt Gap in Bank Foreign Buffers Turns to $14.3 Billion Surplus

Egypt Gap in Bank Foreign Buffers Turns to $14.3 Billion Surplus


BLOOMBERG — Egypt has transitioned from a significant gap in net foreign assets to a surplus of $143 billion, following a substantial investment deal with the United Arab Emirates. This turnaround, marking the first surplus since early 2022, resulted from a notable increase in foreign assets and a decrease in foreign liabilities within Egypt's banking system. The shift comes after economic shocks and a major UAE investment totaling $35 billion, revitalizing Egypt's financial status with improved capital buffers and record-high net international reserves.

Morocco's central bank cut its key interest rate, making it the first north African central bank to lower borrowing rates in a sign of confidence that inflation had been tamed.

Morocco Central Bank First In North Africa To Cut Key Rate


MORNINGSTAR — Morocco's central bank became the first in North Africa to cut its key interest rate to 2.75 percent from 3 percent, a move signaling confidence in controlling inflation, which remains low at an annual rate of 0.4 percent in May, down from a peak of 10.1 percent early in 2023. This decision, influenced partly by declining food prices and the eurozone's recent rate cut, reflects an optimistic outlook for inflation to average 1.5 percent this year. The cut anticipates further reductions in alignment with a stabilizing economy and controlled inflation expectations.

World Bank Supports Public Performance Improvement in Morocco

.PRESS RELEASE.


World Bank Supports Public Performance Improvement in Morocco


WORLD BANK — The World Bank has allocated $600 million to bolster Morocco's public sector performance and inclusivity in public services, focusing on state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform and public administration modernization. The investment aims to improve SOE governance, fair competition, digitization, and financial management, aligning with Morocco's aim for inclusive growth through its New Development Model. Notable achievements include increased female SOE board representation, boosted tax revenues, and the introduction of climate and gender-sensitive budgeting.

German Economic Cooperation and Development Minister Svenja Schulze speaks during the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin, Germany, June 11, 2024. REUTERS/Nadja Wohlleben/File Photo

Germany, Morocco Agree Alliance to Support Green Hydrogen Production and Exports


REUTERS — Germany and Morocco have established a climate and energy alliance aimed at bolstering renewable energy and green hydrogen production in Morocco, with Germany planning to import hydrogen as part of its strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in industrial sectors. The partnership, underscored by Germany's investment in Moroccan renewable energy projects including the world's largest solar thermal power plant in Ouarzazate, seeks to ensure a fair green hydrogen economy and advance the energy transition through technological cooperation and trade.

As Mauritania’s green hydrogen law nears adoption attention must turn to project development and finance

As Mauritania’s Green Hydrogen Law Nears Adoption Attention Must Turn to Project Development and Finance


GH2 — Mauritania's draft green hydrogen law is on the cusp of adoption, setting the stage for the development of its substantial renewable energy potential, estimated at 85 GW, with a goal to produce 12 million tonnes of green hydrogen annually. As the government and developers navigate the balance between attractive financial incentives and long-term economic benefits, attention shifts towards project development, finance, and establishing global agreements to advance industrial projects.

Moroccan Royal Armed Forces Inspector General and Commander of the southern military zone Major General Mohammed Berrid (Centre-R) and the Commander of US Africa Command (AFRICOM) General Michael Langley (C) inspect an honour guard suring the annual “African Lion” joint military exercise between US and Moroccan forces in the Tan-Tan region in southwestern Morocco on May 31, 2024. (Photo by FADEL SENNA / AFP) (Photo by FADEL SENNA/AFP via Getty Images)

Africa’s Sahel is ‘Less Safe’ After Troop Withdrawal: AFRICOM Commander


BREAKING DEFENSE Following the withdrawal of US and French troops from Africa's Sahel region, the area has seen a surge in extremist activities, making it "less safe," according to Gen. Michael Langley, the Commander of US Africa Command (AFRICOM). Extremist groups like JNIM, ISIS, and Boko Haram have expanded, threatening the stability of West Africa's coast, exploiting weak governance and ungoverned areas. Langley emphasized the importance of engaging with Sahelian countries to devise sustainable, government-led solutions to combat the rising instability and extremist influence.

المبادلات التجارية المغربية الإسرائيلية تتجاوز 53 مليون دولار في 5 أشهر

.TRANSLATED.


Moroccan-Israeli Trade Exceeds $53 Million in 5 Months


HESPRESS — Despite geopolitical challenges and boycott campaigns following the Gaza war, Morocco-Israel trade has grown significantly, reaching $53.2 million in the first five months of this year, a 64 percent increase compared to the previous year. This growth is backed by the Abraham Accords signed in December 2020, enhancing bilateral economic collaborations through multiple sectors, including technology and agriculture. Israeli exports to Morocco notably surged by 128 percent last year, showcasing an expanding economic alliance underpinned by technological and security investments.

The Israel Navy's new landing craft, the INS Komemiyut, called in at Tangier for supplies, when sailing between the US and Israel.

Israel and Morocco Defense Cooperation Deepens


GLOBES — Defense cooperation between Israel and Morocco is intensifying, as evidenced by the Israel Navy's new landing craft, the INS Komemiyut, stopping in Tangier, Morocco for supplies during its journey from the US to Israel. This development is part of a broader trend of increasing military collaboration. Despite these deepening ties, public sentiment in Morocco remains largely against normalization efforts with Israel, reflecting an undercurrent of tension and divergent perspectives.

Hakan Fidan’s building of the Turkish axis: China, Russia and the BRICS

Turkish Foreign Minister's Building of the Turkish Axis: China, Russia and the BRICS


HARICIDr. Hakan Fidan, Turkey's Foreign Minister and former intelligence chief, has been actively engaging with China, Russia, and the BRICS, marking a significant shift in Turkey's foreign policy. His visits and meetings signal Turkey's strategic pivot towards these nations and bloc, aiming to enhance economic, cultural, and political ties. This diplomacy underlines Turkey's movement towards a multilateral and multifaceted foreign policy orientation, striving for greater autonomy and regional and global influence amidst changing global dynamics.

Hisham Matar

..SPECIAL..


Hisham Matar Wins Orwell Book Prize for 2024


THE BOOKSELLER — Pulitzer Prize-winning author Hisham Matar won the 2024 Orwell prize for political fiction for his novel "My Friends," which delves into the impact of the 1984 Libyan embassy shootings in London on three Libyan men in exile. The award, which came with a prize of £3,000, recognized Matar's work for its nuanced portrayal of exile, friendship, and the complexities of love and distance. "My Friends" emerged triumphant from a shortlist of eight novels to claim the prestigious literary accolade.

Professor Gordon Gray confirmed that the situation of Tunisians is worse now than it was when Kais Saied took office.

.TRANSLATED.


Former US Ambassador: Kais Saied Will Win Unfair Elections in Tunisia


ARABI21 — The former US Ambassador to Tunisia, Professor Gordon Gray, predicts President Kais Saied will be reelected in unfair and unfree elections, amidst an economic downturn and deteriorating political rights in Tunisia. The government's actions, including the imprisonment of political opponents and journalists and restricting freedom of speech, are seen as moves away from the democratic gains post-revolution. With the looming presidential elections amidst a significant political crisis, the international focus remains divided, limiting external pressures for democratic processes.

Anna Bjerde, World Bank Managing Director for Operations

.TRANSLATED INTERVIEW.


World Bank Official: “We Are Proud to Help Egypt Build A Sustainable and Inclusive Economy”


AHRAM — Anna Bjerde, Vice President of the World Bank, expressed pride in the Bank's role in supporting Egypt through various development projects aimed at boosting the economy and improving social welfare. In her interview with Al-Ahram Hebdo, Bjerde highlighted ongoing collaborations in sectors such as transportation, health services, and sanitation, which are pivotal for Egypt's sustainable development. She reaffirmed the World Bank’s commitment to aiding Egypt in tackling economic challenges and promoting inclusive growth.

World Bank Country Classifications by Income Level for 2024-2025 - This map was produced by the Cartography Unit of the World Bank Group. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of the World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

WORLD BANK


World Bank Country Classifications by Income Level for 2024-2025


Algeria has progressed to the 'upper-middle-income' category in the World Bank's 2024-2025 country classifications, reflecting significant economic growth and revisions to national accounts that align with international standards. This advancement places Algeria alongside Libya as the second North African country to achieve this classification, marking a notable shift in the region's economic landscape with no countries classified as 'low-income'.

Ukrainian servicemen fire an anti-aircraft gun towards Russian positions on a frontline near the town of Bakhmut, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine January 15, 2023. REUTERS/Oleksandr Ratushniak TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

ATLANTIC COUNCIL NORTH AFRICA INITIATIVE | PODCAST


Mercenary Meat Grinder: The Price of Bakhmut


In this episode of the Guns for Hire podcast, host Alia Brahimi is joined by the Russian photographer and journalist, David Frenkel, to consider the staggering toll of the “Bakhmut Meat Grinder.” David also examines the numbers that were killed, the question marks over whether promised death payments were made, and why the Wagner Group turned to prisons for manpower in the first place.


Guns for Hire podcast is a production of the Atlantic Council’s North Africa Initiative. Taking Libya as its starting point, it explores the causes and implications of the growing use of mercenaries in armed conflict.

LISTEN

PERSPECTIVES

Morocco and Algeria are on divergent courses. Morocco is building relations and investing in Sahel countries, whereas Algeria is focused on excluding Morocco from the Arab Maghreb Union. Morocco’s approach is showing new promise, while Algeria’s is deepening its isolation.

WILSON CENTER | VIEWPOINTS SERIES


SAFAE EL YAAQOUBI


Maghreb Disunion: Morocco and Algeria’s Divergent Strategies in Shaping Future Regional Geopolitics


The relationship between Morocco and Algeria is characterized by divergent foreign policies and competition for regional influence, particularly in North Africa and the Sahel. Morocco is actively engaging with Sahel countries through various economic initiatives, including the ambitious Atlantic Initiative to boost access to the Atlantic Ocean, augment regional economies, and foster stability.


Algeria, contrastingly, is deepening its regional isolation with a defensive stance, such as excluding Morocco from the Arab Maghreb Union and forming a new advisory bloc only with Tunisia and Libya. While Morocco advances its influence with proactive strategies and investment, Algeria's inward pivot includes moves like suspending loans to countries engaging with Moroccan initiatives, potentially diminishing its stabilizing role in the region.


The differing approaches—Morocco's inclusive pragmatism versus Algeria's rigid policy—underscore the shifting dynamics and future of regional geopolitics.


Under President Kais Saied’s regime, growing socioeconomic inequality and state-sanctioned police violence push Tunisians and marginalized communities to risk irregular migration and exploitation abroad.

THE TAHRIR INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST POLICY (TIMEP) / SAM KIMBALL


Trapped by Inequality: The Role of Police Violence and Poverty in Tunisia’s Migration Crisis


In Tunisia, systemic inequalities, police violence, and poverty have significantly contributed to a migration crisis. The enforcement of stringent policing intended to suppress dissent and political unrest, especially in economically marginalized communities like Gafsa, exacerbates the existing social disparities. This oppressive environment, coupled with high unemployment rates and a struggling informal economy, propels Tunisians to risk irregular migration to Europe. The situation is further complicated by President Kais Saied's authoritarian governance, which intensifies the repressive security measures and racial tensions, underscoring a deeper crisis of human rights and dignity.

Tunisian National Guard intercept boats of migrants trying to cross the Mediterranean Sea before returning the migrants to the shore of southern city of Sfax on June 9, 2023 / Shutterstock: Hasan Mrad

WILSON CENTER / DEFNE ONAL


EU Migration Deterrence in North Africa: Countries North and South of the Mediterranean Must Step up Collaborative Solutions


Efforts by the European Union (EU) to deter migration from North Africa through an externalization approach have not curbed the dangerous crossings of the Mediterranean, with Tunisia and Libya being primary departure points. The EU's policies have been criticized for their lack of rights-based strategies and for contributing to the perils faced by migrants, including dealings with the Libyan coastguard linked to militia and trafficker abuses. A recent memorandum signed in Tunisia, despite promising financial aid, has faced backlash for its neglect of human rights conditions. There is a need for the EU to create safe, legal migration paths and to address root causes of migration, suggesting collaborative, humane solutions over political deterrence.

Potential or Peril: Carbon Trading in Africa

POLICY CENTER FOR THE NEW SOUTH / MANNAT JASPAL


Potential or Peril: Carbon Trading in Africa


Carbon trading offers a means for climate finance in Africa, a region with low emissions yet plagued by the impacts of climate change and financial limitations exacerbated by COVID-19. However, critiques highlight the market's systemic issues, including questionable carbon credits, underrepresentation of African credit generators, and inequitable benefit distribution. The article urges the strengthening of African countries' engagement with carbon markets, strategic sector selection, and improved capacity-building initiatives to overcome these challenges and leverage carbon trading for sustainable development.

REPORTS & PUBLICATIONS


UNITED NATIONS



The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2024


The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2024 details the significant challenges the world is facing in making substantial strides towards achieving the SDGs based on the latest data and estimates. It features areas with setbacks while also showcasing where tangible progress has been made, for instance, in reducing global child mortality, preventing HIV infection, and access to energy and mobile broadband. The report also highlights where action must accelerate, particularly in critical areas undermining SDG progress - climate change, peace and security, inequalities among and between countries, among others.

REPORT

OPINION


Reframing the Role of Water for a More Climate-resilient Middle East


Water scarcity, a pressing issue in the Middle East due to its arid conditions and limited freshwater sources, has led to prioritized water management efforts. Despite the reliance on desalination to address the shortfall in water supply, the area faces broader water management challenges exacerbated by climate change, highlighting the need for comprehensive strategies beyond augmenting water supplies.

ONE-PAGER REPORT


LAND-at-Scale Egypt: Participatory Land-Use Consolidation for Climate Resilience and Inclusive Business Models


In Egypt, particularly in Upper Egypt, the predominance of smallholder farming combined with a growing population and restricted cultivatable land has led to land fragmentation, impeding sustainable agricultural practices and efficient resource management. This fragmentation not only hinders productivity and income for smallholder farmers but also poses an obstacle to establishing organized agricultural production services and value chains.

BOOK


The History of the Maghrib: An Interpretive Essay


This survey of North African history challenges both conventional attitudes toward North Africa and previously published histories written from the point of view of Western scholarship. The book aims, in Professor Abdallah Laroui's words, "to give from within a decolonized vision of North African history just as the present leaders of the Maghrib are trying to modernize the economic and social structure of the country."

BOOK


Violence and Social Transformation in Libya


Ten years after Libya descended into conflict, the contours of a new society are emerging. How has violence remade the country—what has happened to inter-community and inter-personal relations, to social hierarchies and elite composition? How has the violence contributed to create new communities, both inside the country and in exile? This volume brings together leading researchers, both foreign and Libyan, to examine the deep changes undergone by Libya’s society amid civil war.

VACANCIES


Advocacy Advisor, MENA


Open Society Foundations is looking for an Advocacy Advisor that will design, advise, and lead advocacy support for OSF’ programming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). They will ensure coherence, rigor, and innovation across various organizational and regional advocacy priorities and lead collaborative work to develop organizational messaging narratives and positions on issues of pertinence to OSF’s mission.


APPLY BY: JULY 09, 2024


Humanitarian Safety & Security Specialist


Plan International is recruiting for a Humanitarian Safety & Security Specialist to join a global roster, ready for deployment on short notice to support emergency responses in high-risk contexts. The position involves risk assessment, security management, and capacity building across diverse settings for contracts up to six months.


APPLY BY: DECEMBER 03, 2024

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The Maghreb Weekly is produced by the North Africa Initiative of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute with a focus on developments that impact the region's dynamics. This weekly digest includes an overview of the latest published research, studies and reports from think tanks and policy centers, covering long-term perspectives and analyses of North Africa's challenges and opportunities. 

Any views expressed in the articles above, as well as any errors, are solely those of the authors.