Matthew Lekushoff |

Most markets have been trading higher since our last letter with the exception of the emerging markets (EMs) being about even.

Hoping to keep and attract foreign capital, Turkey's central bank raised interest rates from 17.75% to 24%, which has partly contributed to the EM slump. Although the Turkish lira rallied last week, it has since lost ground again to trade almost 40% lower against the U.S. dollar than it was on January 1. Further hikes and major economic restructuring may be needed, however, President Erdogan seems resistant to make many adjustments.

While Turkey's economy is relatively small, being an emerging market has affected the credibility of other EMs in a guilty-by-association manner.

On the home front, little progress has been made on NAFTA negotiations. A key sticking point continues to be Canada's protectionist dairy policies. While our dairy industry is a relatively small contributor to the economy, once you consider that about half of Canadian dairy farms are in Quebec and a federal election looms, the government's over-weighed desire to protect dairy farmers becomes more obvious.

Hopefully, a deal is made in the near future, but given the political climate, don't hold your breath.


Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction  by   Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner: When I first heard this book's title, I was skeptical. I'm generally not a fan of people who make forecasts. I've seen too many "expert predictions" be catastrophically wrong. After listening to an interview with Philip Tetlock and having this book referred to me by people I respect, I softened my opinion and bought it. I'm glad I did. This book is not only insightful, but is backed by research and the results from several years of prediction completions. Although it can help you make better predictions, I feel the real value is helping you become a better thinker!
How to hire the best people you've ever worked with by Marc Andreessen: Great advice for those hiring people.
Getting Rich vs. Staying Rich  by Morgan Housel:  Knowing how to make money is important. Knowing how to hold onto money is even more important.  
Want Less-Biased Decisions? Use Algorithms by HBR: One of the reasons decisions are often sub-optimal is humanity's inherent tendency to be biased by prior beliefs. As it's unlikely this will change any time soon, an alternative is to turn to algorithms for help.
Survival of the Kindest: Dacher Keltner Reveals the New Rules of Power by Farnam Street: A great conversation with UC Berkely psychologist Dacher Keltner on the main drivers of personal happiness and life satisfaction, how to have a more positive influence, and how to check our biases.
Fault vs. Responsibility by Will Smith: When things go badly it's easy to dwell on who or what is to fault. Unfortunately, concentrating on fault rarely makes the situation better. In this short video, Will Smith (yes, that Will Smith) breaks down the difference between fault and responsibility in a practical way we can all relate to.
Real Estate Bubbles: The 8 Global Cities at Risk   by Visual Capitalist: It shouldn't surprise you that two of the eight cities are in Canada...


"For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded." - Philip Tetlock

"It's very hard to master and if you're not learning all the time, you will fail. That being said, humility in the face of the game is extremely different than humility in the face of your opponents." - Philip Tetlock

"It don't matter whose fault it is that something is broken, if it's your responsibility to fix it." - Will Smith

"There is a large body of research on algorithmic decision making that dates back several decades. And the existing studies on this topic all have a remarkably similar conclusion: Algorithms are less biased and more accurate than the humans they are replacing." - Alex P. Miller, HBR on algorithms

  • In response to Mark Wahlberg's "unique" daily routine reveal, Ryan Reynolds has posted a weekly routine of his own, which includes picking up his kids from the celebrity child kennel, brainstorming world peace, and finding a new hairstyle :)

Matthew Lekushoff

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