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The House and Senate are in session this week. After the Senate released its bipartisan border security and foreign aid supplemental bill last night, it will hold its first crucial procedural vote on Wednesday. In contrast, lawmakers in the House will vote on an Israel-only aid package this week.
On Sunday evening, a bipartisan group of negotiators (Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.)) released the 370 pages of bill text for the Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 (Senate amendment to H.R. 815), which includes border security measures in exchange for national security supplemental funding for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and the Indo-Pacific region. Specifically, the legislation would limit the number of migrants claiming asylum. The total cost of the package is $118.3 billion, including $20 billion for border security, $60 billion in support of Ukraine, and $14 billion in emergency aid for Israel. In the Senate, the prospects of passing the bill are limited. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will place the bill on the Senate floor on Wednesday for its first procedural vote. The critical 60-vote threshold to pass the filibuster will need at least nine Republican votes. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said that 20 to 25 Senate Republicans are open to reviewing the measure, with another 20 to 25 leaning towards a no vote. In the House, the bill in its current form has no chance of passing. If passed in the Senate, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) reported that the bill is “dead on arrival,” meaning the House will not consider the bill on the floor. Speaker Johnson recently announced that the House would vote on a $17.6 billion Israel-only funding bill with no additional legislative changes or funding for border security or additional international aid.
Last Wednesday, the House passed the bipartisan $78 billion Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024 (H.R. 7024) to expand the child tax credit and extend cuts to business taxes by a vote of 357-70. The bill includes $33 billion for an expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC) for three years, allowing more low-income families access to the CTC and many families to benefit from a larger CTC. As it heads to the Senate, it faces several significant legislative hurdles. Passage in the Senate faces a difficult road as many Republican Senators feel spurned over being cut out of the negotiating process between Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) Some sticking points when the Senate considers the bill are CTC access to migrants and parolees and the belief among some that the bill could add $400 billion to the federal deficit over the next decade. In addition, timing plays a significant role, as senators will place priority on passing the national defense supplemental (as discussed earlier); the Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 government funding bills, which face deadlines of March 1 and March 8; the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) five-year authorization bill, which expires on March 8 (the Senate has not yet marked up their version of the bill, as of Feb. 5); and the likely House impeachment of Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas.
The House will consider nine bills under suspension of the rules, including the Wildlife Innovation and Longevity Driver Reauthorization (WILD) Act (H.R. 5009), which reauthorizes wildlife habitat and conservation programs; and the Drought Preparedness Act (H.R. 4385), which extends authorization of the Reclamation States Emergency Drought Relief Act of 1991. The House will also vote on the impeachment resolution for Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas (H. Res. 863); the Protecting Health Care for All Patients Act of 2023 (H.R. 485), which prohibits federal health programs from using cost-effectiveness measurements for medical treatments that place different values on patients’ lives; and a $17.6 billion emergency supplemental funding bill for Israel. The Senate will vote on the nomination of Kurt Campbell to be Deputy Secretary of State and Amy Baggio to be U.S. District Judge for the District of Oregon.
For the remainder of the week, the House will hold several committee hearings, including a Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Aviation hearing on “The State of American Aviation and the Federal Aviation Administration.”
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