NC-BEOC | NCEM Weather Updates

Key Takeaways

• Ian strengthened into a hurricane overnight and will likely become a major hurricane by Monday night.

• Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, coastal flooding, and isolated tornadoes will be possible late this week - weekend as Ian moves through the region.

Summary

Overnight, Ian strengthened into a hurricane and is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) tonight as it approaches western Cuba.

• Hurricane Ian is currently southwest of the Grand Cayman moving toward the northwest. Overall, there has been little change to the forecast over the last 24 hours, but confidence in the track beyond Wednesday remains very low. Ian is currently expected to slowly approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday.
• The greatest threat to NC will likely be heavy rain, but gusty winds, coastal flooding, and isolated tornadoes will also be possible. The threat for heavy rain and breezy winds will likely increase late Thursday along the coast, with the greatest and most widespread impacts expected Friday – Saturday. Widespread heavy rain could result in areas of flash flooding and the potential for river flooding.
• is important to not focus on the actual forecast track, but to prepare for impacts within and outside of the cone of uncertainty. Timing, location, and magnitude of impacts will gain clarity over the next few days as the forecast becomes more refined.

• Prior to Ian, most areas will remain dry through Thursday afternoon, but isolated showers/storms will be possible near the coast today and Wednesday.

• The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands that has a 70% (High) chance of development over the next 5 days. While a tropical depression may form in the next few days, conditions will become less favorable for development afterwards and this system is not expected to pose a threat to the southeast United States.

// NCEM All Hazards | Meteorology Team

FL-BEOC (ESF-18) | Private Sector Coordination Call

FL-BEOC (ESF 18) will begin hosting a daily Private Sector Coordination Call on Monday, September 26, 2022, to provide the latest information and updates to the business community. 

Businesses are welcome to participate in the coordination call and share updates about their operational status, supply chain concerns, and barriers to economic resilience.

FL Weather Updates | FL Emergency Management

Tropical Storm Ian:

• As of 5:00 PM EDT Sunday, Ian was located about 220 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman Island, or about 585 miles south-southeast of Key West, Florida, and moving west-northwest around 12 mph.
• A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Monday and north on Tuesday as it emerges into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
• Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.
• Ian is expected to become a hurricane Monday and reach major hurricane strength by Tuesday before it near western Cuba.
• Ian could make landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast on Friday, however, impacts could start in southern Florida on Tuesday and spread northward through the remainder of the week. Therefore, it is important to not focus on the exact forecast track of Ian.

Florida Outlook:

• A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the Lower Keys from the 7 Mile Bridge southward to Key West, and including Dry Tortugas.
• Storm surge values of 1-3’ above normally dry ground may occur along the Florida Keys as then Major Hurricane Ian passes to the west.
• It is too early to determine the exact magnitude and location of storm-specific threats (later in the forecast period) such as storm surge values, highest winds, exact location of the heaviest rainfall totals, and isolated tropical tornadoes; therefore, do not focus on the “center point” on the forecast cone, but remember that hurricane impacts can extend well beyond the forecast cone.
• Tropical rains may begin to overspread across the Florida Keys and southern Peninsula late Monday and tropical storm-force winds may arrive on Tuesday. Tropical storm-force winds may then spread from south to north along portions of the Peninsula through Wednesday and could arrive in the eastern Panhandle/Big Bend on Wednesday.
• Rip currents will increase along the Florida Gulf Coast by Tuesday as swells from Ian move through the Gulf of Mexico.

CISA | Critical Infrastructure Leadership Call

Critical Infrastructure Partners,

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) invites you to participate in a call on Monday, September 26, 2022, at 2 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) to discuss Hurricane Ian preparations.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Tropic Storm Ian is expected to become a hurricane on the evening of September 25, with projected landfall in Florida on September 29.

Date/Time: 

Monday, September 26, 2022, at 2:00 pm Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)

Participant Toll Free Dial in Number: 

800-857-6546; Passcode: 3463413

// Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency

FEMA-NRCC-NBEOC | Cross-Sector Call for Hurricane Ian

You are invited to join a Cross-Sector Business and Infrastructure partners conference series concerning Hurricane Ian, hosted by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).  

These meetings will include an incident overview, discussions on preparations and status of community lifelines, updates from available FEMA and CISA Regional personnel, and an open forum for questions and information sharing. A tentative agenda and a list of questions to facilitate discussion is attached.

Date: Daily, starting Monday, September 26 until further notice

Time:  3:00 pm Eastern

Please click the link below to join the webinar:

https://fema.zoomgov.com/j/1613178768

Passcode: 285232

Or One tap mobile:

US: +16692545252,,1613178768# or +15512851373,,1613178768#

Or Telephone:

Dial (for higher quality, dial a number based on your current location):

US: +1 669 254 5252 or +1 551 285 1373 or +1 646 828 7666 or +1 669 216 1590

Webinar ID: 161 317 8768

Business and infrastructure partners are also invited to access the FEMA NBEOC dashboard via the following link: https://fema.connectsolutions.com/nbeoc

// National Emergency Business Emergency Operations Center

FEMA-NRCC-NBEOC | Hurricane Ian Update

...IAN BECOMES A HURRICANE AND ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY...

At 5am EDT, Hurricane Ian was located 90 miles southwest of Grand Cayman with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 983 mb.

Ian is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph. A turn toward the north is forecast on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major Hurricane tonight when it is near western Cuba.

Storm Surge Watch

* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West

* Dry Tortugas

* Florida Bay

* Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge

* Tampa Bay

Hurricane Watch

* Englewood to the Anclote River including Tampa Bay

Tropical Storm Warning

* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West

* Dry Tortugas

Tropical Storm Watch

* Englewood southward to Chokoloskee

Rainfall

Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday:

* Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches.

* Central West Florida: 8 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 15 inches.

* Remainder of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 8 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect North Florida, eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle Friday and Saturday.

Storm Surge - Heights above ground

* Anclote River to Englewood, FL including Tampa Bay - 5-8 ft

* Englewood to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor - 4-7 ft

* Bonita Beach to East Cape Sable, FL - 3-5 ft

* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay - 2-4 ft

* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas - 2-4 ft

Hurricane Wind Probabilities

• Naples, FL
• 15%
• Ft Myers, FL
• 15%
• Tampa, FL
• 38%
• Cedar Key, FL
• 34%

Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities

• Charleston, SC 30%
• Savannah, GA 42%
• Jacksonville, FL 58%
• Orlando, FL 63%
• W Palm Beach, FL 45%
• Key West, FL 69%
• Naples, FL 81%
• Ft Myers, FL 67%
• Tampa, FL 90%
• Tallahassee, FL 51%
• Panama City, FL 49%