Good Morning,

Idalia rapidly strengthened overnight and will likely make landfall as a category 4 hurricane this morning in the Florida Big Bend region. Heavy rain and areas of flooding remain our greatest concern late this evening and through the day Friday. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the entire NC coast, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds with Tropical Storm Watches in effect farther inland across the southeast.

Rainfall

• Rain continues to be the primary threat, and a Flood Watch remains in effect for areas along and southeast of the I-85 corridor 2PM this afternoon through Thursday evening, where scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding will be possible, some of which could be significant. Scattered showers and storms will increase in coverage through the day, but the heaviest rain is expected to move into southeastern NC this evening. Since yesterday, expected rainfall totals along the I-85 corridor have decreased as there will likely be a very sharp gradient across portions of or just southeast of the Triangle and Charlotte Metro.
• Southern portions of the I-95 corridor northeastward into central portions of the coast are expected to see the heaviest rainfall with amounts of 5-8”, with isolated totals up to 10” possible.
• Rainfall is expected to taper off southwest to northeast during the afternoon hours Thursday, but some showers could linger near the coast through Thursday night.
• While the threat of riverine flooding will not be as great as flash flooding, several rivers will likely rise above Minor Flood Stage. Isolated moderate river flooding is possible and the N.E. Cape Fear River near Burgaw is now forecast to rise above Moderate Flood Stage on Saturday.

Wind Gusts

• Gusty winds will increase tonight, peaking early Thursday morning through Thursday evening Idalia makes its closest approach to NC. As Idalia moves away from the coast, gusty northeasterly winds will continue along northern portions of the coast due to a pressure gradient with high pressure to the north and Idalia to the southeast.
• The strongest gusts 40-60 mph are expected along the immediate coast.
• Farther inland, Gusts of 25-40 mph will be possible across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain.
• Gusty winds combined with saturated soils could result in downed trees and power outages.

Storm Surge

• A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Beaufort Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina, as well as the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers where 2-4’ of inundation will be possible. While areas south of Beaufort Inlet and north of Ocracoke Inlet to Duck are not under a Storm Surge Watch, these areas could see 1-3' of inundation if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.
• Gusty northeasterly winds will continue the threat of elevated water levels (2-4' above ground) along the sounds, as well as ocean overwash and beach erosion along the Outer Banks on Friday and possibly into the weekend.

Severe Storms

• A few tornadoes will be possible this evening through early Thursday morning along and near the coast as the SPC has placed southeastern NC under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for scattered severe storms. Tornadoes associated with tropical systems are typically brief but offer very little lead time.
• Make sure to have several ways to receive emergency alerts as severe weather at night can be particularly dangerous.

Marine Conditions

• Rough seas and strong winds could also result in moderate beach erosion and dangerous conditions for mariners.

Please let me know if you have any questions. The next NCEM Hazardous Weather Update will be sent by 6:30PM Wednesday evening.

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