Good morning,
A low-pressure system will track northeastward across the SE US bringing snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain to many portions of the state today into tomorrow. The system will be quick to clear the state with precipitation ending by Saturday afternoon. Dry and cold conditions are expected to return Sunday into next week.
Friday – Saturday
- Winter weather will increase across the state from the southwest beginning on Friday morning into the evening. Current timing of impacts is expected to be Friday morning through early Saturday afternoon. Updates to the forecast should be monitored throughout the day as details are refined.
- Precipitation is likely to start as snow mixed with sleet across much of the region with rain across coastal areas. The system’s track will still be key in determining how far inland mixed precipitation, specifically freezing rain and rain will extend. The exact location of this mixed precipitation gradient continues to be difficult to forecast but will result in varying winter weather impacts from north to south. Therefore, uncertainty remains in the exact amounts as mixed precipitation often leads to lower snowfall totals.
- Snow, mixed with sleet in some areas, is forecast across the mountains beginning Friday morning during the morning commute. Areas north of I-40 in western NC have the best chance of seeing mostly snow with areas south of that region seeing snow and sleet. Areas along and south of I-85 will have the greatest chance of seeing freezing rain.
- Snow/sleet is expected to begin across central NC starting in the southwest and Triad region Friday afternoon during the afternoon commute (~3-4pm) and spreading eastward through Friday evening. A transition to wintry mix (snow, sleet and freezing rain) will then be possible Friday night into Saturday. Areas along and north of I-85 in this region have the best chance of seeing more snow while areas south will likely see a transition to wintry mix. Confidence in accumulations, especially ice accumulations, remains low given the uncertainty of where the transitions zone will develop.
- Rain and sleet are likely at the onset Friday evening across inland portions of the Coastal Plain with rain along the coast. A wintry mix (snow, sleet and freezing rain) is likely after sunset with a transition to all rain around sunrise. Light accumulations of snow and ice are possible with northeastern areas of the Coastal Plain having the best chance of seeing higher snow and ice accumulations.
- A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for the Mountains, Piedmont and portions off the Coastal Plain Friday into Saturday. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for remaining areas of the Coastal Plain, except for Brunswick and New Hanover counties at this time. Within these warning and advisory areas, hazardous travel conditions are expected and will quickly deteriorate once precipitation begins to fall.
- Across western NC, snow and sleet accumulations of 2-4” are possible with up to 8” across the southwestern mountains. Higher amounts are possible at higher elevations. Ice accumulations up to 0.1-0.2” are also possible. Mecklenburg, Cabarrus and Union counties may see snow and sleet accumulations up to 2” and ice accumulations between 0.1-0.25”.
- Across central NC, mixed wintry precipitation is expected with snow and sleet accumulations up to 2”. Higher totals up to 4” and a light glaze of ice is possible along and north of I-85 and the NC/VA border. Ice accumulation of 0.1-0.2” will be possible elsewhere.
- Across northeastern portions of the Coastal Plain, snow accumulations up to 2” and ice accumulations up to 0.1” are possible. Elsewhere across the Coastal Plain, snow and sleet accumulations up to 0.5” and ice accumulation around 0.1” are possible.
- Many roads across western NC will be treacherous and impassable late Friday into early Saturday. Hazardous travel conditions are also likely elsewhere during this timeframe and may linger into Saturday night, especially in areas that receive the highest accumulations.
- Areas that receive snow and ice accumulations may also see scattered to widespread power outages due to snow or ice on tree limbs and power outages.
- Precipitation is expected to end from west to east Saturday, ending overnight Friday in Western NC, by mid-morning in central NC and mid-afternoon Saturday across eastern NC. However, lingering snow showers may continue into Saturday in the mountains along the NC/TN border.
Sunday – Thursday
- Dry and cold conditions are expected to return Sunday into next week. Lingering black ice may be possible Sunday night for some portions of the state.
Please let me know if you have any questions.
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