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Election Day
This Tuesday, half of bank executives and board members say they’ll likely vote for Donald Trump, the Republican candidate for president, according to Bank Director’s 2025 Bank M&A Survey. But their support appears to have waned since 2020: Compared to past Bank Director surveys, the percentage voting for former president Trump has declined 19 percentage points.
Trump’s presidency in 2017-20 was marked by bank-friendly policies, including reduced corporate tax rates, legislation in 2018 that rolled back requirements such as stress testing and a less active Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Respondents to the 2025 Bank M&A Survey, conducted in September and available on BankDirector.com Nov. 18, shared their concerns about the regulatory landscape, likely feeling some nostalgia for those days. “The regulatory pendulum is swinging so very far into the weeds that it is going to choke us,” said the CEO of a small, midwestern bank.
Support hasn’t shifted to Vice President Kamala Harris, however, who would get 19% of bankers’ votes, roughly in line with President Joe Biden in 2020. Instead, 27% say they didn’t know who would earn their vote, and a few wrote in other politicians. One respondent wrote, “Can we get another option? Please?”
Who’s in the White House sets the tone for supervision. The results of congressional elections — also determined on Nov. 5 — promise to impact prospective legislation. That’s where Friends of Traditional Banking, a bipartisan super PAC, focuses its efforts, endorsing candidates in tight races. “We're looking for a pro-business, pro-banking congressman,” says Jamie Shinabarger, chair of the PAC and CEO of Springs Valley Bank & Trust Co. in Jasper, Indiana. Often — but not always — they choose a Republican.
Of course, bank leaders cast their votes for a number of reasons, not just bank policy. And like a lot of Americans, bankers seem fatigued by national politics, says Shinabarger. “I think people have been worn down — me included — with the noise and the rhetoric and getting caught up in the small stuff, rather than focusing on policy,” he says.
So far, political polls promise a nail-biter on Tuesday. But no matter the result, banks can expect a regulatory roadmap for the next four years — whether that’s more of the same under Harris or an anticipated easing under Trump.
• Emily McCormick, vice president of editorial & research for Bank Director
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