Road Chatter

From the New York State LTAP Center - Cornell Local Roads Program

November 2023

The only real valuable thing is intuition. - Albert Einstein

Read more at https://www.brainyquote.com/search_results?x=0&y=0&q=intuition

We had no preconceived ideas. We were on this football team to go out and win ballgames and try to win a championship, that's all. To Brian and me, it was no big deal.  - Gale Sayers

Read more at https://www.brainyquote.com/search_results?q=preconceived&pg=4

I was listening to a podcast recently that was discussing recent research into human intuition, that feeling that something is just not right or that this is the perfect time to do something even though there is nothing you can measure that says the time is now. It turns out that we are actually pretty good at things like this even if we do not know why.

The problem is that we also carry preconceived notions about what is the right thing to do. This causes us to not listen to that instinct, fall back on that old saw of "we always do it this way," or twist our instincts into the answer we want to hear. I suspect the solution is to listen to our instincts, but temper them with any facts we can get. If you hear a large animal on the trail in front of you, don’t assume it’s just a noisy chipmunk.

Let's apply this idea to the upcoming winter. My instincts tell me we are going to see another light winter, but not the very limited snow we got in most of the state last year. My preconceived notion is that we have to be ready for a much worse winter, just in case. The Old Farmer's Almanac says more snow than normal, but milder for at least the eastern half of New York State. The National Weather Service says above-average temperatures and average or below-average precipitation through February for the whole state.

https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

Combining my gut with these facts, I would anticipate we will get some moderate or even large storms but may not keep the snow cover most of the winter. So, more mud, more chances of ice, and still a couple of big storms. I hope I am wrong because it does not sound like my snowshoes will get used as much as I would like, and I really don’t like ice (except when playing hockey). We will see in the spring how my intuition with fact tempering did for this winter. (And, we still need to be ready for the really big storm anyway.)

-  David Orr, P.E.