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USGCRP Hosts National Climate Assessment
for Northeast Region Webinar
The U.S. Global Change Research Program hosted the twenty-sixth installment of its National Climate Assessment (NCA5) webinar series on February 22. Attendees heard from Northeast Region Chapter Lead Jess Whitehead and Co-authors Erin Lane, Melissa Finucane, and Mark Bove as they discussed the central findings and future considerations for building northeastern climate resilience.
Instead of focusing on micro state-level developments, the Northeast Chapter is oriented around five key messages designed to “tell a story of what’s happened since the last USGCRP NCA in 2018.” While climate change is expected to result in similar disruptions to communities and ecosystems as elsewhere in the country, the northeast region stands apart as a leader in promoting adaptation, mitigation, and resilience strategies.
Key messages one and two concern the degree to which climate change will disrupt terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and together these messages constitute the “foundation of [the] chapter.” Extreme weather events are becoming more common - the prevalence of days with two inches of rainfall has increased 50 percent and days with five inches 100 percent since 1958. Heat waves will last longer and become more severe, but the authors do not expect the incidence of drought to change in the coming decades. Marine ecosystems will not be immune to these developments, and Whitehead warned that “Ocean and coastal habitats in the northeast are experiencing changes that are unprecedented in modern history.” Species abundance, distribution, and migratory patterns have begun to change, and several economic marine species (including lobsters, cod, and right whales) will experience population declines. Oceanic warming, acidification, and severe marine heat waves will continue to exacerbate and accelerate these trends.
The third and fourth key messages underscore the importance of designing equitable climate action plans because climate impacts will be disproportionately concentrated within minority, elderly, and low-income communities. Almost every state in the region has published or updated a climate impact assessment, and where there hasn’t been state action, municipalities have stepped up. Many of these assessments include emissions reductions targets, but few states have met their ambitious goals. According to co-author Melissa Finuncane, “Progress is taking place, but it is deliberately fraught progress.” Equity remains a weak spot - relative to racially integrated communities, redlined areas experience warmer annual temperatures and more extreme summer weather. Climate change will not impact everyone in the same way, so the authors stressed that solutions should be designed to address significant existing disparities in climate readiness and resilience.
One solution the chapter explores is ensuring that adequate capital is allocated toward adaptation and mitigation. While many coastal households possess flood insurance, inland coverage rates are as low as one percent in some counties. Given the increasing frequency of flash flooding events, co-author Mark Bove spoke of the urgent need to “figure out ways to get more flood coverage into individuals’ hands.” Private sector investments in climate resilience have traditionally overlooked insurance coverage, but mobilization of private capital has begun to increase in recent years. The northeast region currently leads the nation in directing public funding to resilience projects, although funding levels will need to be maintained to ensure certainty.
The Midwest Region Chapter is available for download here, and you can find a recording of the webinar on the USGCRP YouTube channel accessible here.
Reported by NEMWI Intern Ethan Groboski, Brown University
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