Let your friends and clients know that it's National Remodeling Month with these resources provided by NAHB!

Join us for a Housing Industry night at the ballpark!

Thursday, May 18      First pitch @ 7:00pm

$12 per person

Sit with our team and go home with Baby Cakes gear!

Thank you to our sponsors!

Common Framing Errors & How to Avoid Them

In this session, taught by an experienced APA field representative, participants will examine the most common wood-framing and sheathing errors found in today's construction market, their consequences, and practical solutions for avoiding them. Topics include:
* Buckled sheathing
* Squeaky floors
* Over-sized holes
* Connection dos and don'ts

11:00am - Noon : Presentation

Noon - 1:00pm : Lunch provided by RoyOMartin

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Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is President of GraphsandLaughs, LLC and can be reached at [email protected]. His daily 70 word economics and policy blog can be seen at www.econ70.com.

There are four main reasons why oil prices are again declining.  Firstly, the decision to cut global production set off a flurry of buying by hedge funds, which pushed up prices.  However, the rise in prices also encouraged American shale producers to ramp up drilling and production.  To wit, the number of oil rigs in operation has more than doubled in the past 12 months.  Since OPEC announced that production cuts were coming, US production has increased by almost 500,000 bbl/day.  Moreover, the number of wells that are drilled but uncompleted (DUCs) has risen from 1,250 to 1,750.  As oil prices recover, DUCs, which can be quickly completed, are likely to flood the market with yet more supply.  

Second, several OPEC nations, including Iran, Libya, and Nigeria, were, for any number of reasons, not asked to cut production and have instead all increased production dramatically.  Further complicating matters is that many of the nations that have been called upon to make cuts do not have a great history of compliance.  In addition, Canada and other non-OPEC nations that are in no way involved with OPEC are also increasing production.  

The third factor is that in the months leading up to January 1, 2017, when the above-mentioned production cuts were to commence, most OPEC nations sharply raised production levels and exports to maximize short-term revenues.  And, after weeks of transatlantic travel, this oil is now finally reaching US shores. 

The final factor is the shape of the curve of futures prices, which is closely related to inventory levels.  Inventory levels continue to rise and are now at a record 540 million barrels.  With inventories so large, near-term prices for oil are lower than long-term prices, a relatively infrequent situation known as a contango.  When the contango is sufficiently large, such that storage costs are less than the long-term price of oil minus the short-term price, which is currently the case, investors and speculators buy oil and store it.  In the process, the near-term price of oil is driven lower still.

	June 3-4 & 10-11, 2017

Whether you're a builder or an advertiser, take advantage of one of HBA's biggest media opportunities!

Builder Deadline: April 5

Advertiser Deadline: April 7

Builders  Builder Entry Packet

Advertisers Guidebook Ad Rates  and Sponsorship Information

Guest Speakers:

Richard Haase, President Latter & Blum, Inc.

Dr. Wade Ragas, PhD, MAI, SRA Real Property Associates, Inc.

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is President of GraphsandLaughs, LLC and can be reached at [email protected]. His daily 70 word economics and policy blog can be seen at www.econ70.com.

Recently, Senator Tom Cotton from Arkansas and Senator David Perdue from Georgia introduced legislation aiming to reduce legal immigration to slightly more than 500,000/year from the current rate of one million/year.  The explanation given by both senators was that reducing the number of immigrants would shrink the pool of labor, thus raising wages, and hopefully encouraging some of the many Americans who have quit the labor force to return.  While sounding plausible, the data does not support this position.  Moreover, reduced immigration will bring the US perilously close to a situation it has never seen: near-zero population growth.

Per an exhaustive study carried out by the US National Academy of Sciences, immigration does not drive down wages.  Rather, immigration was found to have a "very small" and short-term effect on native-born workers lacking a high school degree.  Another study that looked at non-European immigration into Denmark between 1991 and 2008 found that immigrants didn't reduce wages, and instead freed natives to do more agreeable work.  And when only high-tech immigration is analyzed, at worst, studies find that wages of American computer workers and scientists are depressed by up to 10%, but the overall economy is better off by boosting innovation and reducing prices for consumers.         

While somewhat counterintuitive, these studies demonstrate that rather than taking jobs performed by natives, immigrants create new employment opportunities, and along the way, can push the natives into higher paying jobs.  The mistaken belief that immigrants reduce employment opportunities for Americans is based on a false notion that there is a fixed amount of work to be done, and that job gains made by immigrants come at the expense of natives who are displaced. 

In addition, immigrants often bring skills that are in great demand.  For example, at present, there is a shortage of occupational and physical therapists, nurses, construction workers, engineers, metal workers, etc.  However, wages in these professions do not appear to be rising substantially faster than those in occupations where labor shortages are less severe.  This is because more construction and metal workers simply cannot be found, regardless of the wage offered.  Thus, employers have been forced to cut back on production because of a dearth of skilled labor.  This situation helps no one.    

Separately, ponder this: on average, the working-age population grew by 1.4% per year between the years 1965 and 2015, and economic growth averaged 3%.  Assuming current fertility and immigration rates, the working-age population will grow just 0.3%/year between now and 2037.  With only 500,000 immigrants per year, the working-age population will grow by just 0.1%/year.  And with no immigration, the working-age population shrinks by 0.1%/year.  Under these conditions, we will be lucky to see annual GDP growth of 1.5%/year, not to mention declining house prices.  House prices would be expected to fall in cities in counties with declining populations, as the number of buyers would progressively decline.

While many Americans fear that immigrants -- in particular illegal immigrants -- threaten their employment opportunities and wages, in almost all situations that is not the case.  Frequently, immigrants perform demanding physical work that Americans prefer not to do, and even when that is not so, immigrants often have skills that are in short supply.  Lastly, in an economy that is rapidly aging and slowly growing, immigration is the key to population growth. That growth will allow us to avoid a host of painful problems, including declining property values and rising tax burdens that we would be wise to avoid.