The last full week of October was a box full of surprises.
First, U.S. economic growth exceeded expectations. The devastation wrought by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria was widely expected to stifle U.S. quarterly growth, according to
NPR. The
Atlanta Federal Reserve predicted 2.5 percent gross domestic product (GDP)* growth for third quarter, down from 3.1 percent the previous quarter. Instead, U.S. GDP grew by 3.0 percent.
In fact, productivity has been flourishing around the globe. The
Financial Times reported:
"...activity has again broken upwards in recent weeks, with growth in the advanced economies close to the highest rates seen since before the Great Financial Crash (GFC), apart from in the immediate recovery phase in 2010. Furthermore, world trade volume has now joined the recovery, and corporate expenditure on jobs and machinery is picking up. Overall, it seems that some of the symptoms of "secular stagnation" are beginning to fade..."
Tech companies were a sensation last week, too. Several of the biggest firms beat earnings estimates by wide margins, pushing share values higher, reported
CNBC. Despite tech's strong performance, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) has delivered third quarter earnings growth of 4.7 percent with more than half of companies reporting.
Earnings are lower than they would have been without the hurricanes, according to
FactSet. With insurance industry earnings excluded, the S&P 500's earnings growth pops from 4.7 percent to 7.4 percent.
The final surprise for the week was the doldrums. October is supposed to be the most volatile month of the year, according to
Barron's. Instead, we've experienced the calmest October since 1928.
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both finished last week at new all-time highs.
*GDP is the value of all goods and services produced in a region.
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Data as of 10/27/17
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
|
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks)
|
0.2%
|
15.3%
|
21.0%
|
9.6%
|
12.8%
|
5.3%
|
|
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S.
|
-0.2
|
20.5
|
20.2
|
4.4
|
5.2
|
-1.2
|
|
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)
|
2.4
|
NA
|
1.8
|
2.3
|
1.7
|
4.4
|
|
Gold (per ounce)
|
-1.2
|
9.3
|
0.0
|
1.0
|
-5.8
|
4.9
|
|
Bloomberg Commodity Index
|
0.7
|
-1.9
|
-0.4
|
-9.8
|
-9.6
|
-7.2
|
|
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index
|
-1.4
|
5.8
|
9.8
|
7.5
|
10.0
|
6.2
|
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.