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In the latest example of false climate alarmism reporting, The Guardian insists that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMOC) is in danger of reaching a “tipping point” that will lead to its “almost certain” collapse.
The AMOC is the Atlantic component of the global ocean conveyor belt, a large-scale ocean circulation system that circulates water from north to south and back in a long cycle within the Atlantic Ocean. This circulation brings warmth to various parts of the globe.
According to The Guardian, collapse of the AMOC would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50-100 centimeters (20-39 inches) to already rising sea levels around the Atlantic.
What do they think will cause the collapse of the AMOC? The “climate crisis” allegedly caused by “global heating” allegedly caused by increased CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. The source of their claim is a dozen computer climate models which predict a slowdown of the AMOC anywhere from 42% to 58% by 2100 and “a level almost certain to end in collapse”.
Except, not really.
First, the available data over 30+ years gives no indication of slowdowns in the AMOC despite the rise in global temperatures and CO2 levels over that time (see figure).
Second, as Carl Wunsch – one of the most distinguished oceanographers of the past 50 years – notes, the Gulf Stream (a key part of the AMOC) is a result of the large-scale wind system over the North Atlantic Ocean and fluid motion on a rotating planet. Since neither the wind system nor the rotation of the planet is going to stop, the chance of the AMOC collapsing is basically zero.
Third, The Guardian contradicts itself by first accepting the climate model estimates of a “slowdown of 42% to 58% in 2100, a level almost certain to end in collapse", and then admitting: "The AMOC system is highly complex and subject to random natural variations, making precise predictions impossible.”
Lastly, if global heating up to the present has been caused by natural variability and not man-made CO2 emissions - and there is compelling evidence this is the case - then any natural-warming-caused slowdown in the AMOC that might occur in the future will probably reverse itself.
Bottom line, the AMOC is fine.
This was written for this Weekly Update by CO2 Coalition Senior Science Advisor Maaneli Derakhshani, Ph.D.
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