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The Numbers Don't Lie
Inflation has been on a sharp climb since February. It sat at 2.4% in January and February 2026 and had been at 3% or below since June 2024. Then the Iran conflict started, energy costs rose, and the numbers began going in the wrong direction.
Because inflation was so close to the Fed's 2% target, many people had real hope that rate cuts were right around the corner. This should have lead to more sellers here in Northern NJ. That hope has faded quickly and it seems to me we will continue to be sitting with a limited amount of homes for sale this year.
The conversation has shifted from when the Fed will cut rates to whether they may need to raise them. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on June 3rd: "I am increasingly concerned that higher interest rates could be necessary later this year." A majority of traders now expect the Fed to raise rates by at least a quarter point by October.
The June 17 meeting is expected to be a hold, no movement either way. But the tone going into that meeting is very different from just a few months ago.
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