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The data point I can use to prove the market is shifting is the amount of time it takes for a home to sell (Days on Market: DOM), and the time is getting longer. For the last few years now we have seen this number be less than 30 days on average in Northern NJ. In some areas, less than 20 days. What was normal for a home to sell in a weekend is now taking 3-4 weeks and might require a price adjustment, which is more than double the time.
Don't get me wrong, homes are still selling quickly and are maintaining a strong sale value. But, we aren't seeing 10%+ median sale price increases any more. They are selling more than last year, it's just a lot closer to the asking prices with nearly the same amount of inventory compared to the year prior.
That tells me we are plateauing at rising sale prices and the comparable home sales from just a few months ago are becoming less of a good basis for strong list prices. The mentality shift of buyers are changing for multiple reasons; affordability, rate drop expectations, needs changes etc.
To further emphasis prices are coming down slightly is that homes are selling at just 101.9% over asking, which is -1.5% less than last year according to the Garden State Multiple Listing Service. Which means that sales are moving closer to list price, not further away.
It will take some time, but if this keeps up we will eventually see sellers adjusting their prices lower than what some of the comparables are.
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