Volume 18, Issue 22

June 4, 2021

As the world continues to open, the rice world is ready to meet in person and talk about the market at the luxurious Woodlands Resort in Texas, this July 6-8th. Its obvious rice farmers, mills, allied industries, importers, exporters, and an assortment of officials connected to the rice market are anxious to discuss the issues and network with the entire rice trade community. Make your plans, go to www.RiceMTConvention.com in order to register. 

The Texas Rice Council, US Rice Producers Association, and the rice industry from throughout the United States express their sincere condolences to the family of Gary Wayne Skalicky (August 16, 1942 – May 31, 2021) upon the news this week that his courageously fought battle with cancer had come to an end.

Gary was loved by all due to his active participation in his community while serving on numerous boards and committees during his career in rice farming including the Texas Rice Council and Texas Rice Improvement Association. Gary also served as the President of Rice Marketing of El Campo and as Director of Rice Growers of Texas and many other important organizations supporting farmers.

We will truly miss Gary because the industry and the community have both lost an irreplaceable advocate. “Gary spoke as if a 1,000 farmers were sitting over his shoulder listening”, says Dwight Roberts, President & CEO of the USRPA, adding that, “Gary was a strong believer in the purpose of both the Texas Rice Council and the US Rice Producers.” Gary Skalicky was a rice farmer 24/7.

President Joe Biden released his full budget request for fiscal 2022 which includes details on plans to ramp up spending at the Agriculture Department for climate research and agricultural adaptation. Under the current law, the 2022 request for discretionary budget authority to fund programs and operating expenses is $29.9 billion, almost 9 percent increase or $2.6 billion above the 2021 enacted level. Of the $2.6 billion increase, 54 percent, or $1.4 billion, are program increases and 46 percent, or $1.2 billion, is an elimination of the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) rescission. This request also includes funding for Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), Rural Development, Forest Service, food safety, research, and conservation programs.

The overall budget includes both the Administration's annual spending requests for departments and agencies as well as the sweeping, longer-term proposals under his American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan to address climate change, build roads and other infrastructure and reduce economic inequality. The $29.9 billion in budget authority that Biden is requesting for FY22 at USDA includes $914 million earmarked for climate research and resilience programs as well as clean energy. The administration proposes no cuts in farm programs, including the crop insurance program, and is requesting funding to support an estimated $10.4 billion for farm loans to an estimated 52,000 farmers, Funding for mandatory programs is estimated to be $168.1 billion, a $20 billion decrease from 2021 enacted levels.

USDA's $29.9 billion budget request, which would be a 9% increase over fiscal 2021, is for discretionary spending programs that are subject to annual appropriations by Congress. USDA’s total estimated budget for FY22 is $198 billion, which includes the cost of farm programs, nutrition assistance and other mandatory spending programs where the cost is set by law or depends on program eligibility. Compared to FY 2021, this amount represents a decrease of almost $17.4 billion. The budget assumes a pay cost increase of 2.7 percent and includes an increase of $200 million across the Department to cover the pay and benefit increases. and the budget would fully fund USDA's network of county offices.

The 2022 fiscal year starts Oct. 1.

Of note, there is no mention in the budget of using the Commodity Credit Corp. for climate-related spending, such as a carbon bank. Total CCC spending for FY22 is estimated at $10.3 billion, far below the CCC $30 billion in spending authority. Proposals to use the CCC to support carbon markets has run into intense Republican opposition.

Climate-related spending increases in the budget include funding such as:

The Natural Resources Conservation Service's budget for conservation technical assistance would increase by $43 million to $774 million to support the administration's emphasis on helping producers implement climate-friendly farming practices.

Funding for USDA’s climate hubs, multi-agency regional centers that provide advice and analysis on climate adaptation, would increase by $3 million to $23 million in FY22.

The Agricultural Research Service’s budget authority would increase from $1.6 billion to $1.9 billion in FY22, with increases of $99 million for clean energy and $92 million for climate science.

The National Institute of Food and Agriculture, which funds extramural research at land-grant universities and other institutions, would see its budget authority increase from $1.8 billion to $2.2 billion. Some $91 million would be earmarked for climate research.

The Economic Research Service’s budget would increase from $85 million to $91 million in FY22, allowing for a $4 million increase in climate research.

To review the USDA budget proposal here.

The long-grain milled market is limping into summer, hoping for fresh demand from any buyer. Carryout is expected to be tighter this year than in the past, and with a short crop having just been planted, there is potential for a firming market despite the current lack of demand. Arkansas is 89% emerged as of May 30, which is right in line with historical norms. Louisiana is slightly behind with 91% as of May 30, compared to a five-year average of 97%. Missouri is ahead, as is California. The crop condition is looking like a mixed bag so far. Notably, Arkansas is only 57% in good condition, with 21% registering as fair, and 20% as poor. Louisiana is showing 52% good, and 45% fair, with only 3% as excellent. The heavy rains that delayed or prevented planting altogether are taking their toll on the emerging crop.

On the ground, cash prices in Texas are trading at $13.83/cwt if one can find a price, which is right in line with Louisiana with prices at $13.89/cwt. In Mississippi, the range is $12-$13 delivered, as are both Arkansas and Missouri. With Haiti in the doldrums and no Iraq business, demand is scarce throughout the region moving into summer, and finding any cash business is difficult in the current environment.

Net sales show a decrease of 31% from last week, and 50% from the four-week average, settling at 24,500 MT on the week. Exports of 34,100 MT were down 54% from both last week and the four-week average. The bulk of exports came in the form of fulfillment of a Japanese tender out of CA, with the balance being shipped to El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, and Canada.

In Asia, Vietnamese prices have dropped this week as buyers are seeking cheaper origins. India has remained the low-price leader throughout the year and continues to put pressure on other origins—even in the face of their COVID-19 outbreaks. Thailand has also been the recipient of some of the buying interest that is falling off from the high-priced Viet rice. Viet prices are still as high as $480-490/MT, but the expectation is that prices will drop to converge with Thai prices in the $460-465/MT range. India is unchanged at $390/MT. High freight rates and increased fuel costs are biting into rice prices as well, making delivery more expensive. The rally in commodities has extended fully into the dry bulk market, where bullish indicators have been sustained now for five consecutive months.

A recent GAIN report on Mexico has revised the total rice production upwards to 306,000 MT of rough rice, or 210,000 MT of milled rice. This increase, which is nearly 25% in the Spring/Summer crop cycle, is largely attributed to the government's Guarantee Price program to ensure higher prices to producers. The increase in production has resulted in a bump in stocks, with estimates now up to 220,000 MT.