THE NOVACK TEAM

MONTHLY MARKET WATCH

MARCH 2026

BUYERS MOVING INTO ACTION THIS SPRING

March 2026 saw a meaningful pickup in activity, with contracts signed up 30% month-over-month—a typical seasonal step-up as the market moves into spring—though still 3% below last year.

While supply increased 62% over the same period, it remains below typical seasonal levels. As of March month-end, inventory sits just under 6,000 homes—still well short of the 7,400–7,500 range where listing volume typically peaks in late May.

While the trifecta of Easter, Passover, and Spring Break somewhat tempered activity over the last two weeks, there is a sense of energy beginning to coalesce in the market.

Buyers are engaging more decisively—less theoretical, more in action—but remain disciplined, acting when something aligns while staying firmly within their perceived value range.

Sellers should also keep in mind that the spring market offers a longer peak selling window than the fall, which is beginning to play out now.

LUXURY MARKET: CLEAR DEMAND, LIMITED SUPPLY

In March, there were 163 contracts signed above $4 million (15 townhouses, 106 condos, and 42 co-ops)—up from 123 in February, though slightly below March of last year.

The year-over-year decline is less about demand and more a function of limited supply for more specific, high-end buyers.

In fact, active listing inventory at the top end of the market—defined as the top 10% of sales by price—fell about 27% year-over-year in the first quarter and now sits near a two-decade low.

WHAT I'M WATCHING

I’ve continued to get questions about whether there has been any impact on the luxury market following the recent mayoral election. With a few months of data now behind us, the answer appears to be no.

Contracts in the luxury segment rose roughly 24% in the 60 days following the election versus the 60 days prior, while listing discounts tightened modestly.

As long as there are no material changes to taxation policy—which, so far, Governor Hochul has indicated she does not plan to pursue—I would expect this dynamic to remain relatively stable.