November 2024 Newsletter

Yes, this newsletter is coming to you sandwiched between Black Friday and Cyber Monday. But I want to look back to Thursday for just a moment. Thanksgiving. A day to take inventory of our blessings. It occurs to me that I could write a newsletter composed solely of the many things for which I am grateful. For now let me just say that I remember a Black Friday deal I snagged on a laptop. It was the first purchase I made six years ago as I began to lay the foundation for my own financial planning business. Somewhere along the way, you showed up and now I am fortunate to make a living working on interesting challenges with people I care about. For that I am thankful.

Post Election Analysis

This was a common topic of conversation for me in November. Many of you asked, “What do I need to think about financially-speaking under the next administration?” Here are a few key takeaways.



• The Trump Trade: The stock market cheered the election results. This was a blend of several factors. The new administration promises lower regulation and corporate tax rates and is generally expected to create a business friendly environment. For example, the heavily regulated banking industry rose 11% the day after the election (as measured by the KBW Bank Index). Markets also loathe uncertainty. The market broadly rallied simply due to the fact that concerns of delayed results or even political violence never materialized. 

• Taxes: The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is set to expire at the end of 2025. The Republican-controlled congress is likely to extend many of these benefits. Pay attention to developments regarding individual income tax rates, the standard deduction, itemized deductions, and the Child Tax Credit. We may even see the unpopular cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions go away.

• Tariffs: Economists generally agree that tariffs are blunt tools that raise prices for consumers. Perhaps if Ben Stein’s character in Ferris Bueller’s Day Off had been a bit more dynamic, the message would have gotten through to Trump’s advisors. But is there another angle here? Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, paid a visit to President-elect Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago yesterday to discuss Trump’s threat of 25% tariffs on Canadian imports. It’s possible tariffs are largely a negotiating tactic. Time will tell, but some are suggesting buying big ticket items before potential tariffs arrive. Your next car, iPhone or television could see a big jump in price.

• Summary: Strong portfolio gains and lower taxes are likely to provide a boost to many individual investors. Whether tax and trade policies lead to longer term inflationary pressures and greater national debt remain to be seen.

US Economic and Stock Market Summary

The US economy continued its steady growth in November, driven by strong consumer spending. While inflationary pressures have eased, the Federal Reserve remains vigilant. The central bank has maintained its target interest rate, suggesting a potential pause in rate hikes.

In November the US stock market delivered the strongest performance of any month this year, with the S&P 500 gaining 5.7%. This positive momentum was fueled by a mostly positive Q3 earnings season and an overall optimistic economic outlook. However, concerns about high valuations persist among some analysts.

Other key economic indicators include:



• The U.S. housing market showed stabilizing trends, including a drop in mortgage rates. A 30 year mortgage is about 6.5% currently. Going back to 1971 Freddie Mac says the average rate is about 8%.
• Job Market: Remains robust with low unemployment rates.
• US Dollar: Strengthened against many foreign currencies.

Where I've Found Wisdom

Wall Street Journal personal-finance columnist Jonathan Clements wrote an article (apologies for the paywall, if you're not a subscriber) earlier this month which was an odd mix of poignant and practical. He’s living out what he expects to be his final year, with a cancer diagnosis and a short timeframe to organize his affairs. His very practical, even cheerful, approach has been frustrating at times to his family. But having helped clients and their families at times like this, this article contained important advice.

Communication is paramount. Just yesterday there was another good article in the WSJ about how Warren Buffett talks to his family about his estate plans. The more openly you talk about your intentions, the less likely your survivors are to wonder or bicker over your affairs.

Being financially organized is such a gift to your survivors. I’m a big proponent of doing all you can to bring simplicity and flexibility to your finances. Guess what? Not only does this create peace of mind for yourself, it also makes it easier to settle your affairs after you’re gone.

Survivors dealing with your death have a very strange mix of grief and administrative tasks to work through. Anything you can do to simplify the latter will help them work through the pain of loss. 

Want to do something today? Check out your beneficiary designations on your retirement plans, IRAs or insurance policies. Do they align with your plans and intentions? Let’s talk if you’re interested in learning more about tips and tools to simplify and organize your finances.

We hope you enjoyed the November edition of the Dyer & Co. newsletter! We are here to support your journey towards financial wellness and achieving your goals. Don't hesitate to reach out with any questions or concerns.

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