Restaurants: Hoping for a Better 2025
by John Gordon, Principal and Founder, Pacific Management Consulting Group
As observed at the outstanding Restaurant Finance and Development Conference (RFDC2024) last week, the question de jour was of course, what does 2025 look like. Without question, the restaurant lending community, which was present in force, was cautiously optimistic. Many felt that the concluded election, a now cumulative year 75 basis points decline in the Fed Funds Rate, the building impact of some weaker restaurant locations being closed via bankruptcies, more positive signs from lenders, and improved October sales via Census Department’s Advance Food Service Sales tracker is setting the stage for an improved 2025.
The upcoming ICR Conference will tell you more. Here, 25-30 public restaurant brands are present, along with 10-15 up-and-coming brands. I will attend as usual and will report more about brand outlook for 2025.
We as an industry want it and need a better 2025. We have continued backwash from the 2020 Pandemic. We lost a full year of normalized sales in most casual dining brands, raging double impact food and labor cost inflation, especially in 2022-2023. The industry, both in the US and international markets finally had our cumulative price increases catch up with us. We now have a negative reaction worldwide. And now, to no surprise, we have experienced a dramatic US price war, especially centered in the QSR sector. This was led by McDonald’s, which talked about sales softness for three quarters, and then finally rolled out a $5 “Mead Dea” which improved the US traffic trend, but did not generate material positive SSSs and profitability.
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