Hello all,

The market is still kicking. I return to Westchester and Putnam counties for clients and their family/friends. Lately, I have been focused in the river towns. It's quite active with a recent sale selling for $501,000 over asking on an $850,000 listing. Not sure what's nuttier - going 62% over asking or feeling the need to put a grand on top "just in case."

The driveway and adjacent parking lot filled with cars at an open house felt like pandemic days all over again. It seems we no longer have that level of fever in Dutchess County, although it is still active and multiple offers are still happening with certain properties.

From buyer tsunami engulfing the Hudson Valley in 2020 to industry shakedown in 2024 to a week met with either joy or wounds still too fresh to discuss, this has been quite the four year stretch. Among several other burning issues, affordability in and outside of real estate is pressing in our country. How will policies and priorities unfold?

Here's one thing to count on: if you are looking to buy, the likely best bet of realizing noticeably lowered mortgage rates near term comes down to better credit and lower debt. I discussed credit, credit scores and preparing for lender discussions in more detail in the September supplement issue.

Since 2022, I have believed (and shared in The Brick) that at some point in 2025 we will move to at least a neutral market, which is the healthiest of market conditions as it represents balance in buyers and sellers. It may or may not feel like the healthiest of conditions that gets us there, though. The market has been adjusting for 2+ years with our region still experiencing sellers market conditions, albeit simmered in many areas compared to days past.

With the norm being one in a year, if that, there have been four market shifts in 2024 alone. The first started in October, 2023 when mortgage interest rates hit peak at over 8% for the first time since 2000. While it settled down later in the month, there was a shift that took more fuel out of the jets, which rolled into Q1, 2024. Activity did pick back up during that quarter. Interestingly, it was also an October when there was a shocking "8" involved in interest rates, but that one was October,1981 when rates hit their highest on record at 18.63%. The three other shifts that followed revolved around politics and were noticed more in other parts of the country further advanced in market adjustment.

Let's dive in. Here's what's on tap:

• Rates and 2025
• The Five D's
• Home Sales
• Demographic Shifts in Housing
• The Swoop
• Presidents Circle
• Clear Cooperation and the MLS
• Logo redesign vote
• Private Mortgage Insurance
• Luxury
• TM Meditation

Rates and 2025



There was much enthusiasm in lender and realtor circles for Q1, 2025. Anticipation of noticeable rate cuts pushed lenders to forward gamble with downward adjustments ahead of the September cut. I put out a video on social media urging buyers to contact their lenders ahead of the anticipated September cut as adjustment on the actual date was expected to be minimal in so far as mortgage rates were concerned with many lenders downward adjusting not on the anticipated September cut, but more so in anticipation of Q4 2024 and particularly Q1 2025. That's exactly what happened.

This enthusiasm appears now met with a degree of cooling in so far as expectations for 5-5.5% mortgage rates near term. I still expect 2025 to be a busy and solid market, but I also expect it to be a different market, particularly as we press farther into it. I am a bit skewed as I had one of my best years in 2024 with sales down for many colleagues over the same period. Good or bad, I fully believe 2025 will be a defining year for realtors. Covid hoopla is done. We are back to the basics of skill and just like any other profession, not all have it.

We were spoiled with record low interest rates and a decade of low interest rates, in general. While the average fixed rate mortgage from 2010-2020 was 4.40%, according to Bankrate, the 30 year historic average on fixed rate mortgages as of November is 7%.

I have several seller clients planning to list in spring market. I have been counseling clients to list in January/February/March unless there is need to enter with peak competition. My January and February sellers have consistently done well. If you're interested in selling, now is a very good time to meet and discuss how to best prepare and timing that makes the most sense for your circumstances and/or goals.

Question has surfaced as to whether rates low enough to move a noticeable amount of sellers off the perch and into the market will be as swift as anticipated. Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute shared "Thursday's rate cute benefits anyone that borrows based on short term lending. This includes corporations and consumers tackling credit card debt and sometimes car buyers. It's really not going to be impacting mortgage rates at all." Rates should continue to see decrease, but the 5-5.5% range may not be near term.

The Five D's

Rates aren't the only trigger that could move sellers off the perch and into the market. There are five factors that bring sellers and buyers into the market no matter the interest rates, politics, etc.: death, diamonds, divorce, diapers and debt. There is a gridlock of sellers and buyers with pent up need to transition that have been waiting on lowered interest rates.

Should debt, including tax debt, be the impetus, the worst thing to do is put head in sand. The tax lien foreclosure proceeding can move much more quickly than a standard foreclosure. I am skilled in short sales and foreclosures. If debt has become an issue and you're considering selling, let's talk through options with goal putting this swiftly behind with least, if any, forward impact.

Inventory and Home Sales

In 2023, home sales dropped nationwide to the lowest level in nearly three decades until September, 2024, when sales fell another 3.5%. Nationwide, sales of existing homes in the US are on track for the worst year since 1995.

There is considerable variation in listing supply and market condition nationwide. While the Hudson Valley is down in closed sales, the National Association of Realtors reported the Northeast as the only region not down in sales nationwide. The Hudson Valley holds in a sellers market but there are pockets around the country that have moved into a neutral or buyers market.

The "Inventory Levels" graphic in this section was created for the November, 2023 issue of The Brick. Numbers posted were directly from the OneKey MLS and Mid Hudson MLS systems. While OneKey MLS, based in Westchester, is reporting Dutchess, Putnam and Westchester counties down YOY in single family detached inventory, all three counties are actually up based on their own data and my data from Mid Hudson MLS before the merge with OneKey.

Current inventory levels for single family detached homes as of November 9, 2024: Dutchess: 626 versus 508 in November 2023, Putnam: 183 versus 156 in November 2023 and Westchester: 782 versus 687 in November, 2023. While all counties are in fact up year over year, the normal trending inventory levels of 2019 show we are still painfully low in all counties. See graphic.

I have found it imperative to have back issues of The Brick as sadly it is the only way I have been able to keep an accurate pulse on certain aspects of the market. OneKey, the MLS service based in Westchester with over 40,000 multi county member agents, has been disseminating from what I can tell erroneous data with refusal to correct. It is important for realtors to have accurate data to best counsel their clients. I have preserved data because of this newsletter. Not sure how everyone else is getting by.

Inventory is still lower than our last normal trending market throughout the region, but better than our rock bottom low. For example, in Dutchess County there are currently 626 single family detached listings active on the market versus rock bottom lows in the 370 range during Late Winter/Early Spring Market, 2022 so we are making our way. Regardless of interest rates, continued increase in inventory is expected in 2025. Sellers that need to transition can only hold out for so long. It is feeling like a gridlock in the moment.

The following numbers are single family detached sales, YOY September (October numbers have not yet posted). Westchester closed sales were down 7.9%, median sale price up 9.6% to $915,000, Dutchess County closed sales down 10.3%, median sale price up 10.2% to $459,500, Putnam down 13.5% in closed sales, median price up 11.6% to $530,000, Ulster County numbers are wholly inaccurate in OneKey and I will not report, Rockland closed sales down 7.8% median price up 11.5% to $725,000 and Orange County closed sales down 13.1% with median sale price up 5.9% to $450,000.

Demographic Shifts in Housing and the Split Level Home

Key forces that impact demographic shifts: government, economy, societal shifts and technology. One demographic shift that surfaced during the John Burns Consulting 2025 Housing Market Outlook conference are home designs continuing to decrease in size and multigenerational living continuing to gain interest to save on housing costs.

The split level home is very well aligned for multigenerational living. Here's one I sold in the south side of Poughkeepsie. Rather than walk into stairs as is the layout with a raised ranch, the main level is first to greet. There are a limited number of up and down stairs from the main level, often leading to bedrooms in each area. Finished basements can add a perk of recreation and/or living space. This can render a great deal of space while also offering generational privacy with bedrooms on different levels with more limited stairs than certain other layouts. I fully expect the split style home layout to see increased interest in days forward.

Clear Cooperation and MLS

I'm going to date myself here, but when I first started in real estate real estate listings came out in books. (I can see my teen rolling her eyes that I just shared that). The system has been around for over one hundred years in different forms - first starting in the late 1800's with realtors simply meeting with each other to discuss listings.

The now digital form propelled efficiency in this marketplace for realtors, buyers and sellers. The latest of issues at hand in the real estate industry is "clear cooperation." This policy was initiated by the National Association of Realtors ("NAR") in 2019 with intention to defray what they viewed as unfair "pocket listings" by mandating NAR affiliated MLS services house new listings within 24 hours.

There are varied positions on this topic. I align most with Anywhere, parent company of my brokerage Coldwell Banker, with the middle of the road approach. My seller clients have realized pre marketing a listing can ignite a swift and successful sale. It's form with our local MLS service is in "coming soon" status, which allows up to a 14 day window to market a property before changing status to "available." I leverage the bejesus out of this option for my clients. I could see the window extending up to 30 days for luxury as that segment takes longer to set for launch with nationwide and global colleagues and contacts, including the press on tap for reach for starters.

This has been one prong in a multi prong approach for my clients listings to hit the market like a bomb from Day 1. The properties are not allowed to be shown by myself or any others during that "coming soon" window in order to allow fairness for all buyers to see the property once available. I personally think this is the answer to "clear cooperation" as it both allows pre marketing while maintaining fairness to all buyers and their agents by having a specific off market (or "coming soon") window. Pre marketing .also allows buyers to be at the ready to see a home once it changes to active status, as well.

As a sidebar, with commission fields no longer present in the system, MLS services across America will most likely be called to task to demonstrate their value to realtors and brokers funding their existence in the days ahead (the National Association of Realtors should consider themselves in that bucket too.) OneKey MLS could serve themselves well by getting their act together, IMHO. But I digress...

Client Testimonial

"After two years with three other realtors, Sandi had us in multiple offer within a few weeks." T. Mian

L U X

I have some interesting luxury slated for 2025. I look forward to introducing to the market. I am a global luxury specialist with an extensive global network with proven consistent success in this space.

SOLD

Dutchess County homes $5M+ that have sold in the past 6 months. The property on Route 44 in Millbrook originally listed for $14M. Less than one month later they adjusted to $8M. They had their buyer in two weeks through multiple offer. Sold bidding fashion through auction. Nice over asking sale for a close over $2M higher. See the lineup here.

ACTIVE

There are currently 16 listings in the $5M+ range active in Dutchess County. Half of them are in Millbrook. Rhinebeck and Millbrook are usually the top sellers in the county at the high end, but interestingly not one of the current listings is in Rhinebeck. Click here to see.

TM Meditation

I just started TM meditation and can't recommend it enough. It settles everything down and makes your mind feel a bit like an elevator going down. It's pretty amazing and doesn't have all the "breath this way" "sit this way" requirements to it. It's quite simple and I'm finding incredibly peaceful. Highly recommend! I have great coaches, too. Really looking forward to a healthy, happy and productive 2025!

It's a wrap! I would appreciate keeping me in mind for those who have questions on the market or are looking for a solid real estate partner to counsel through a purchase and/or sale. I am never too busy for your referral and take very good care of those sent my way.

We are making the "big move" at the end of the month from the Town of Rhinebeck to the Village of Rhinebeck. Unless something big happens (which you never know) December will likely be a light issue between moving and holidays. (yes, only one cup of coffee to read rather than two LOL)

Join my social media community for content in between The Brick. I'm on LinkedIn, Facebook, YouTube, Tik Tok and Instagram. YouTube and Instagram are great starting grounds for my content. Each channel has unique aspects. All around I'm either Sandi Park or HudsonValleyNest.

Happy Thanksgiving all!

If you know someone interested in buying or selling, pass The Brick along!

Best,

Sandi