Hello all,
The market is still kicking. I return to Westchester and Putnam counties for clients and their family/friends. Lately, I have been focused in the river towns. It's quite active with a recent sale selling for $501,000 over asking on an $850,000 listing. Not sure what's nuttier - going 62% over asking or feeling the need to put a grand on top "just in case."
The driveway and adjacent parking lot filled with cars at an open house felt like pandemic days all over again. It seems we no longer have that level of fever in Dutchess County, although it is still active and multiple offers are still happening with certain properties.
From buyer tsunami engulfing the Hudson Valley in 2020 to industry shakedown in 2024 to a week met with either joy or wounds still too fresh to discuss, this has been quite the four year stretch. Among several other burning issues, affordability in and outside of real estate is pressing in our country. How will policies and priorities unfold?
Here's one thing to count on: if you are looking to buy, the likely best bet of realizing noticeably lowered mortgage rates near term comes down to better credit and lower debt. I discussed credit, credit scores and preparing for lender discussions in more detail in the September supplement issue.
Since 2022, I have believed (and shared in The Brick) that at some point in 2025 we will move to at least a neutral market, which is the healthiest of market conditions as it represents balance in buyers and sellers. It may or may not feel like the healthiest of conditions that gets us there, though. The market has been adjusting for 2+ years with our region still experiencing sellers market conditions, albeit simmered in many areas compared to days past.
With the norm being one in a year, if that, there have been four market shifts in 2024 alone. The first started in October, 2023 when mortgage interest rates hit peak at over 8% for the first time since 2000. While it settled down later in the month, there was a shift that took more fuel out of the jets, which rolled into Q1, 2024. Activity did pick back up during that quarter. Interestingly, it was also an October when there was a shocking "8" involved in interest rates, but that one was October,1981 when rates hit their highest on record at 18.63%. The three other shifts that followed revolved around politics and were noticed more in other parts of the country further advanced in market adjustment.
Let's dive in. Here's what's on tap:
- Rates and 2025
- The Five D's
- Home Sales
- Demographic Shifts in Housing
- The Swoop
- Presidents Circle
- Clear Cooperation and the MLS
- Logo redesign vote
- Private Mortgage Insurance
- Luxury
- TM Meditation
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Rates and 2025
There was much enthusiasm in lender and realtor circles for Q1, 2025. Anticipation of noticeable rate cuts pushed lenders to forward gamble with downward adjustments ahead of the September cut. I put out a video on social media urging buyers to contact their lenders ahead of the anticipated September cut as adjustment on the actual date was expected to be minimal in so far as mortgage rates were concerned with many lenders downward adjusting not on the anticipated September cut, but more so in anticipation of Q4 2024 and particularly Q1 2025. That's exactly what happened.
This enthusiasm appears now met with a degree of cooling in so far as expectations for 5-5.5% mortgage rates near term. I still expect 2025 to be a busy and solid market, but I also expect it to be a different market, particularly as we press farther into it. I am a bit skewed as I had one of my best years in 2024 with sales down for many colleagues over the same period. Good or bad, I fully believe 2025 will be a defining year for realtors. Covid hoopla is done. We are back to the basics of skill and just like any other profession, not all have it.
We were spoiled with record low interest rates and a decade of low interest rates, in general. While the average fixed rate mortgage from 2010-2020 was 4.40%, according to Bankrate, the 30 year historic average on fixed rate mortgages as of November is 7%.
I have several seller clients planning to list in spring market. I have been counseling clients to list in January/February/March unless there is need to enter with peak competition. My January and February sellers have consistently done well. If you're interested in selling, now is a very good time to meet and discuss how to best prepare and timing that makes the most sense for your circumstances and/or goals.
Question has surfaced as to whether rates low enough to move a noticeable amount of sellers off the perch and into the market will be as swift as anticipated. Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute shared "Thursday's rate cute benefits anyone that borrows based on short term lending. This includes corporations and consumers tackling credit card debt and sometimes car buyers. It's really not going to be impacting mortgage rates at all." Rates should continue to see decrease, but the 5-5.5% range may not be near term.
The Five D's
Rates aren't the only trigger that could move sellers off the perch and into the market. There are five factors that bring sellers and buyers into the market no matter the interest rates, politics, etc.: death, diamonds, divorce, diapers and debt. There is a gridlock of sellers and buyers with pent up need to transition that have been waiting on lowered interest rates.
Should debt, including tax debt, be the impetus, the worst thing to do is put head in sand. The tax lien foreclosure proceeding can move much more quickly than a standard foreclosure. I am skilled in short sales and foreclosures. If debt has become an issue and you're considering selling, let's talk through options with goal putting this swiftly behind with least, if any, forward impact.
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Inventory and Home Sales
In 2023, home sales dropped nationwide to the lowest level in nearly three decades until September, 2024, when sales fell another 3.5%. Nationwide, sales of existing homes in the US are on track for the worst year since 1995.
There is considerable variation in listing supply and market condition nationwide. While the Hudson Valley is down in closed sales, the National Association of Realtors reported the Northeast as the only region not down in sales nationwide. The Hudson Valley holds in a sellers market but there are pockets around the country that have moved into a neutral or buyers market.
The "Inventory Levels" graphic in this section was created for the November, 2023 issue of The Brick. Numbers posted were directly from the OneKey MLS and Mid Hudson MLS systems. While OneKey MLS, based in Westchester, is reporting Dutchess, Putnam and Westchester counties down YOY in single family detached inventory, all three counties are actually up based on their own data and my data from Mid Hudson MLS before the merge with OneKey.
Current inventory levels for single family detached homes as of November 9, 2024: Dutchess: 626 versus 508 in November 2023, Putnam: 183 versus 156 in November 2023 and Westchester: 782 versus 687 in November, 2023. While all counties are in fact up year over year, the normal trending inventory levels of 2019 show we are still painfully low in all counties. See graphic.
I have found it imperative to have back issues of The Brick as sadly it is the only way I have been able to keep an accurate pulse on certain aspects of the market. OneKey, the MLS service based in Westchester with over 40,000 multi county member agents, has been disseminating from what I can tell erroneous data with refusal to correct. It is important for realtors to have accurate data to best counsel their clients. I have preserved data because of this newsletter. Not sure how everyone else is getting by.
Inventory is still lower than our last normal trending market throughout the region, but better than our rock bottom low. For example, in Dutchess County there are currently 626 single family detached listings active on the market versus rock bottom lows in the 370 range during Late Winter/Early Spring Market, 2022 so we are making our way. Regardless of interest rates, continued increase in inventory is expected in 2025. Sellers that need to transition can only hold out for so long. It is feeling like a gridlock in the moment.
The following numbers are single family detached sales, YOY September (October numbers have not yet posted). Westchester closed sales were down 7.9%, median sale price up 9.6% to $915,000, Dutchess County closed sales down 10.3%, median sale price up 10.2% to $459,500, Putnam down 13.5% in closed sales, median price up 11.6% to $530,000, Ulster County numbers are wholly inaccurate in OneKey and I will not report, Rockland closed sales down 7.8% median price up 11.5% to $725,000 and Orange County closed sales down 13.1% with median sale price up 5.9% to $450,000.
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Demographic Shifts in Housing and the Split Level Home
Key forces that impact demographic shifts: government, economy, societal shifts and technology. One demographic shift that surfaced during the John Burns Consulting 2025 Housing Market Outlook conference are home designs continuing to decrease in size and multigenerational living continuing to gain interest to save on housing costs.
The split level home is very well aligned for multigenerational living. Here's one I sold in the south side of Poughkeepsie. Rather than walk into stairs as is the layout with a raised ranch, the main level is first to greet. There are a limited number of up and down stairs from the main level, often leading to bedrooms in each area. Finished basements can add a perk of recreation and/or living space. This can render a great deal of space while also offering generational privacy with bedrooms on different levels with more limited stairs than certain other layouts. I fully expect the split style home layout to see increased interest in days forward.
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The Swoop
With apples holding the September/October spotlight, November and December are historically known for "cherry picking." While a finale pop is expected this year, these two months are historically the slower in real estate in our area. This can translate to deal hunting, particularly vacant homes that are a pure bleed on sellers through the winter months.
Rejoice if you see a property 30-45+ days on market. Days on market are your friend if you're a buyer. Not so much if you're a seller. New listings that are priced well and effectively marketed are generally still moving swiftly with certain ones continuing to realize multiple offer.
Even during the absolute height of Covid frenzy, I helped a number of clients secure properties for multiple thousands below asking price. Make the reduction your own before the seller publicly reduces, which could trigger multiple offers if mark is hit as we still are in low inventory. I lovingly call it the "swoop." The New York Times referenced me as "Swoop Sandi" in their real estate cover feature article "Finding a Home in this Overheated Market"
There is a listing on the market right now that is making me salivate.
This property has many qualities that remind me of a classic historic home I sold on Linden Avenue in Red Hook at the beginning of Covid frenzy in September, 2020. It was listed for $489,000. People could not believe it sold for $700,000; setting the record in Dutchess County for highest percentage over ask. I knew when the buyers bought it what it could be. That 1840 colonial sat on eight bucolic acres. It had an in ground swimming pool that hadn't been opened in at least five years and housed an entire microcosm of life, but at a minimum, there was a hole. That was a giving home with solid bones and historic detail. It was honest with it wounds and showed what it needed. Three years later it flipped back into the market restored and updated with an over ask sale of $3,755,000. See the before and after of 256 Linden Avenue in Red Hook here.
Whether flip or live, there is another house in Red Hook available right now that I think is being missed under radar for its potential. It's not resting on eight private acres as the Linden house did. It does sit back from 9G, but it's a true set back and we are talking panoramic Catskill views with five+ acres. The original owner was aligned with Bard. It's been on the market for over a month. Here's the full listing. It really needs to be experienced, though. I don't feel the pics do it full justice. I did a clip on certain of the historic details of it here. If you or someone you know is interested, please reach out. I fully see the value and want to sell this worthy house. The last owner happily lived to over 100 there.
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President's Circle
So far my sales for 2024 have landed me the President's Circle award - top 5% out of over 100,000 agents worldwide. Goal is one more up - the top 2% International Elite. Let's see how the year closes out!
I'm not a "unit heavy" realtor. I don't foresee ever getting an award based on number of units sold. I wouldn't want to stretch myself thin and risk impact on the service my clients expect and deserve. My awards have always been transaction volume based. I sell across price points with goal for next year set at $20,000,000.
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Clear Cooperation and MLS
I'm going to date myself here, but when I first started in real estate real estate listings came out in books. (I can see my teen rolling her eyes that I just shared that). The system has been around for over one hundred years in different forms - first starting in the late 1800's with realtors simply meeting with each other to discuss listings.
The now digital form propelled efficiency in this marketplace for realtors, buyers and sellers. The latest of issues at hand in the real estate industry is "clear cooperation." This policy was initiated by the National Association of Realtors ("NAR") in 2019 with intention to defray what they viewed as unfair "pocket listings" by mandating NAR affiliated MLS services house new listings within 24 hours.
There are varied positions on this topic. I align most with Anywhere, parent company of my brokerage Coldwell Banker, with the middle of the road approach. My seller clients have realized pre marketing a listing can ignite a swift and successful sale. It's form with our local MLS service is in "coming soon" status, which allows up to a 14 day window to market a property before changing status to "available." I leverage the bejesus out of this option for my clients. I could see the window extending up to 30 days for luxury as that segment takes longer to set for launch with nationwide and global colleagues and contacts, including the press on tap for reach for starters.
This has been one prong in a multi prong approach for my clients listings to hit the market like a bomb from Day 1. The properties are not allowed to be shown by myself or any others during that "coming soon" window in order to allow fairness for all buyers to see the property once available. I personally think this is the answer to "clear cooperation" as it both allows pre marketing while maintaining fairness to all buyers and their agents by having a specific off market (or "coming soon") window. Pre marketing .also allows buyers to be at the ready to see a home once it changes to active status, as well.
As a sidebar, with commission fields no longer present in the system, MLS services across America will most likely be called to task to demonstrate their value to realtors and brokers funding their existence in the days ahead (the National Association of Realtors should consider themselves in that bucket too.) OneKey MLS could serve themselves well by getting their act together, IMHO. But I digress...
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Client Testimonial
"After two years with three other realtors, Sandi had us in multiple offer within a few weeks." T. Mian
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PMI
I have pulled comparatives for mortgaged clients that did not put at least 20% down on a conventional loan to check current valuation range. If you still have PMI, you may want to ask your realtor to do the same for you. Here's the deal:
Twenty percent down was standard before Private Mortgage Insurance ("PMI") came about to protect lenders from expense involved should a buyer default. PMI created home ownership opportunities that may not have existed if they didn't have 20% down. PMI is required for buyers putting less than 20% down on a conventional mortgage. Lenders have an automatic termination date preset that calculates the value at purchase and payments applied to principal. Once equity is between 18-20% (depending on lender), then PMI drops off.
PMI can add up over time, regardless if the monthly payment is contained or into the hundreds. The amount of PMI is highly dependent on credit score and interest rate. More on PMI, breakdown of varied loan amounts combined with interest rates and credit scores in the September supplement issue. But what if your property has increased in value since purchased? That is up to the homeowner to raise with the lender. Once PMI is taken off, it's off for good. We are still in a sellers market with favorable valuations so check into it!
It could be worth checking with lender for the number the home would need to appraise at in order to have PMI lifted. I have had clients save thousands with this exploration at the cost of an appraisal. While it can't be guaranteed, it is most ideal to have a high degree of confidence it would appraise for at least the number needed, which is where your realtor can come in and pull a comparative for you.
Haven't secured a realtor yet and plan to buy? These are the types of things I automatically do for my clients. Let's talk!
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L U X
I have some interesting luxury slated for 2025. I look forward to introducing to the market. I am a global luxury specialist with an extensive global network with proven consistent success in this space.
SOLD
Dutchess County homes $5M+ that have sold in the past 6 months. The property on Route 44 in Millbrook originally listed for $14M. Less than one month later they adjusted to $8M. They had their buyer in two weeks through multiple offer. Sold bidding fashion through auction. Nice over asking sale for a close over $2M higher. See the lineup here.
ACTIVE
There are currently 16 listings in the $5M+ range active in Dutchess County. Half of them are in Millbrook. Rhinebeck and Millbrook are usually the top sellers in the county at the high end, but interestingly not one of the current listings is in Rhinebeck. Click here to see.
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TM Meditation
I just started TM meditation and can't recommend it enough. It settles everything down and makes your mind feel a bit like an elevator going down. It's pretty amazing and doesn't have all the "breath this way" "sit this way" requirements to it. It's quite simple and I'm finding incredibly peaceful. Highly recommend! I have great coaches, too. Really looking forward to a healthy, happy and productive 2025!
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It's a wrap! I would appreciate keeping me in mind for those who have questions on the market or are looking for a solid real estate partner to counsel through a purchase and/or sale. I am never too busy for your referral and take very good care of those sent my way.
We are making the "big move" at the end of the month from the Town of Rhinebeck to the Village of Rhinebeck. Unless something big happens (which you never know) December will likely be a light issue between moving and holidays. (yes, only one cup of coffee to read rather than two LOL)
Join my social media community for content in between The Brick. I'm on LinkedIn, Facebook, YouTube, Tik Tok and Instagram. YouTube and Instagram are great starting grounds for my content. Each channel has unique aspects. All around I'm either Sandi Park or HudsonValleyNest.
Happy Thanksgiving all!
If you know someone interested in buying or selling, pass The Brick along!
Best,
Sandi
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Sandra "Sandi" Park
Licensed Real Estate Broker
Global Luxury Specialist
Senior Transition Partner
Hudson Valley Nest | Coldwell Banker Realty
M: 914-522-6282
Email: spark@hudsonvalleynest.com
www.HudsonValleyNest.com
| Serving the Hudson Valley and Global Luxury Markets | |
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