Greetings!
In this week’s issue, we highlight Westinghouse’s recent exclusion from the Czechia’s modified nuclear tender and its implications for U.S. nuclear export competitiveness. We spotlight a Nuclear Energy Institute-sponsored report that examines the evolving landscape of nuclear energy investment and financing. Finally, we highlight key nuclear technology, security, and geopolitical developments, reports, and analyses.
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A Gut Czech on America's Nuclear Export Ambitions
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As the fanfare surrounding the COP 28 decision to triple global nuclear energy by mid-century fades out, what’s coming into focus is the ill-preparedness of the U.S. to lead a global nuclear build out in a world where state support is now the new standard and American influence is receding.
The U.S. government is acting as cheerleader for American technology, and that has been successful in places like Poland and for new reactor development. But it is avoiding the hard choices that would level the playing field for American companies against other state-supported nuclear entities.
The most recent demonstration of this situation is the decision of the Czech government to toss Westinghouse and the AP-1000 out of its nuclear bid.
The original plan was to build one new reactor at the Dukovany nuclear power plant. In this configuration Westinghouse was a very confident bidder.
But this month the Czech government suddenly changed the tender from one to four reactors, two each at Dukovany and Temelin. The government indicated that it “wanted all four units to be subject to binding offers to mitigate risks of price escalation and provide the highest degree of certainty on costs”.
As the head of CEZ, the Czech utility company noted, “Our goal is to get a turnkey delivery with clear guarantees, with a clear price, with clear deadlines, with clear sanctions if those deadlines are not met, and with other clear parameters.”
The demand for this level of clarity poses a high risk for private American nuclear companies as they are unable to rely on a U.S. government financial safety net. As a result, the Westinghouse-Bechtel team was unwilling to offer a binding price on the multiple units.
Comments by the Czech Prime Minister are illuminating about what may have tipped the scale. He stated that four units are, “significantly more advantageous.” And that the “price per unit could be reduced by up to 25%, which in practice means that the last fourth reactor would be more or less free at the current proposed prices.”
The two companies still in the running for the Czech business are France’s EDF and South Korea’s KHNP. EDF is a State-Owned Entity (SOE) and KHNP, is a subsidiary of KEPCO, of which the South Korean government owns more than 50%, so it is a State-Assisted Entity (SAE).
The four-pack of reactors for the Czech’s looks very much like the 2009 $20 billion deal between South Korea and the United Arab Emirates for a quad of KEPCO’s APR-1400s. In the Czech case the Koreans are offering a lower-power reactor, the APR-1000, which was certified for use in Europe in March 2023.
Another similarity to the ROK-UAE collaboration on the Barakah nuclear project is that it came in roughly on time and within the original budget. This project efficiency is unusual in the western nuclear business. And it is in contrast to the $17 billion cost overrun and 7-year delay in Westinghouse’s building of two AP-1000’s at Vogtle in Georgia.
The desire for nuclear project clarity and effectiveness was also on display at a nuclear financing summit convened last week in New York. One of the conference’s core documents was a survey of the financial community’s perspectives on nuclear energy.
It confirmed that there is support for the carbon-free and reliability attributes of nuclear energy. But it noted that cost, project timelines, and committed customers remained major concerns.
These views have particular relevance for the next-generation of smaller and innovative nuclear reactors that are now under development.
The American government at the moment is fixated on the development and demonstration of these new reactors. But the sparkle of new technology is occluding the need to better prepare the market for the entry of these reactors. This is particularly true for exports.
A down-selection of a few next-gen reactor types is inevitable and the demonstration of their capability, reliability, safety, and security features on American soil will be necessary before any other nation will agree to buy them.
That period offers a window of opportunity to develop the global market to ensure that western nuclear technology is viewed as a better choice than that provided by Russia or China.
But, the U.S. doesn’t seem to have a Central Command Center for nuclear market development and reactor commercialization.
It has a team of agencies with differing responsibilities and widely variable budgets. There is certainly coordination among them, but no discernable, effective strategy that can generate the necessary government financing and instill the industry discipline that can reduce risk and improve the chances of capturing international market share.
This roadmap will be necessary in a world where Russia, China, and France own their nuclear entities and other competitors like South Korea actively underwrite theirs.
As one investment firm surveyed for the financing summit noted, “the hesitation to invest in nuclear…is less about project timelines than it is about concerns regarding customer commitments”. Another noted that a better U.S. framework is required to support nuclear projects overseas, particularly an approach that “relaxes requirements for sovereign nation commitments of capital.”
This is the essence of the geopolitical fight for energy allies in which the U.S. is increasingly engaged. Sovereign support is essential for global nuclear share and the U.S. needs to quickly adapt to that reality. Otherwise, it will get hip-Czeched again and again out of key nuclear markets in this century.
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Ken Luongo, President, Partnership for Global Security
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Spotlight
The Nuclear Energy Institute released a report that delves into the evolving landscape of nuclear energy investment. Based on extensive engagements with financial entities, there was a strong sense of the valuable role of nuclear power in meeting global energy demands and climate objectives amidst a burgeoning population. But the surveys also identified a spectrum of opportunities, challenges, and viewpoints surrounding nuclear energy financing. These included the variety of nuclear applications including industrial uses, varied sentiments on conventional versus next-generation technologies, the hurdles of regulatory approval, and risk factors and perceptions among investors. To address these challenges, the NEI report advocates for innovative financing mechanisms, clearer regulatory frameworks, and proactive industry engagement. Implementation of these recommendations aims to create a conducive environment for nuclear energy investments, advancing sustainable energy solutions, and climate resilience on a global scale.
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The Impact of the Ukraine Invasion on Nuclear Affairs and Exports
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Ukraine’s Energy Minister announced that four new units will be added to the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant this year, making it the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Two of the units will use Westinghouse’s AP1000 technology and the third and fourth units will be based on VVER-1000 technology. The expansion of Khmelnitsky will help compensate for the loss of capacity at the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi visited the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to discuss nuclear safety, security, and staffing concerns. Grossi raised concerns about the decision to block staff who have yet to sign a contract with the Russian operators as there are only 4,500 operators on staff currently compared to the 11,500 staff working there before the war began. While staffing is low, the IAEA announced the ZNPP is staffed with the necessary personnel to ensure safe operation.
Ukraine's energy minister is spearheading a long-term strategy to transition away from nuclear energy reactors designed and fueled by Russia. Proposed sanctions on Russia's nuclear industry have not taken off as the country's uranium exports still account for a significant portion of the global supply and immediate sanctions would hurt the West. Nevertheless, there has been a notable surge in nuclear energy initiatives, evidenced by U.S. President Joe Biden urging Congress to approve more than $2 billion for nuclear enrichment, Additionally, Canada has expanded its uranium mining operations, and the United Kingdom is investing millions of pounds on its own enrichment efforts.
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The European Commission has launched an Industrial Alliance dedicated to small modular reactors (SMR), aiming to facilitate the development of SMRs in Europe by the early 2030s. According to the commission, this Industrial Alliance will elaborate a Strategic Action Plan in order to identify technically mature and commercially viable SMR technologies, potential gaps and solutions in the European supply chain for SMRs, and funding opportunities to support SMR development. The European Commission previously set up a European SMR pre-partnership last July with the overall objective of identifying enabling conditions and constraints.
The U.S. State Department’s Project Phoenix selected Slovenia to receive advisory and technical services as part of the project’s initiative to help countries transition from coal to small modular reactors. State Department assistant secretary C.S. Eliot Kang said that Slovenia’s selection is testament to the high quality of the proposal, with Sargent & Lundy working with Slovenian stakeholders to identify priority project areas. Project Phoenix was announced at the COP27 climate conference in 2022 and aims to support energy security and climate goals by creating pathways for coal-to-SMR power plant conversions.
India and the United States look to deepen their cooperation in nuclear civil power. There is a shared interest in energy transition and reducing dependency on fossil fuels and the United States and India are exploring moving forward on large traditional reactors and the use of SMRs. This collaboration would help both countries meet decarbonization goals and according to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt, “India is one of the U.S.'s most important energy relationships in the world”.
Westinghouse has signed an agreement with Community Nuclear Power Limited (CNP) for the construction of four AP300 small modular reactors (SMR) in the North Teesside region of England. Westinghouse said the collaboration will further expand scale for workforce, training, and supply chain localization via multiple deployment projects with commercial operation expected by the early 2030s. This project would be the United Kingdom’s first privately financed SMR fleet as the United Kingdom plans to expand nuclear energy capacity to 24 GW by 2050.
Russia and India signed a new protocol to the intergovernmental agreement on the construction of the Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant. The two sides met to review the progress of the construction of Kudankulam units 3 to 6 and also discussed means to expedite the ongoing construction. The Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant currently hosts two Russian VVER-1000 pressurized water reactors, with four more VVER units currently under construction at the site.
The construction costs of Hinkley Point C, a nuclear power station in Somerset, have climbed to £35 billion in 2015 prices, almost double the original forecast of £18 billion in 2016 and won't open until 2031. The construction of Hinkley Point C was taken on by Électricité de France (EDF) and China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN), but much of the construction costs are now falling on France. The deal was initially intended to represent a nuclear renaissance and for the U.K., the first new nuclear power plant in a generation marked the start of the government’s campaign to replace its aging fleet of reactors.
Belarus and Russia signed a memorandum of understanding to deepen cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear technology. Rosatom stated that the MoU provides for the implementation of joint projects in the field of nuclear medicine, additive technologies, radioactive waste management, and the construction of a multipurpose nuclear research reactor. Belarus and Russia already have close ties in the nuclear field, with Rosatom building Belarus’ first nuclear power plant at Ostrovets.
France and Sweden established a strategic partnership regarding nuclear collaboration. The development of Swedish nuclear power will be based on a partnership between Électricité de France (EDF) and Vattenfall and will support the development, construction, and research of nuclear energy. The Swedish government aims to add two reactors by 2035 and ten more by 2045. In addition to developing Swedish nuclear power, the partnership seeks to support Ukraine, the energy transition, and competitiveness.
Canadian SaskPower and GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy signed an agreement to advance small modular reactor (SMR) development in Saskatchewan. The agreement will allow SaskPower and GE Hitachi to collaborate on project planning, design, fuel sorting, and fabrication for the BWRX-300 SMR and support workforce and supply chain planning. However, SaskPower will not make a decision until 2029 on whether to build an SMR in the region, but it will continue with project development, licensing and regulatory work.
Westinghouse Electric Company, Bechtel, and the Czech Power Industry Alliance signed a memorandum of understanding establishing a working group to facilitate participation of Czech companies in the deployment of up to four AP1000 reactors at the Dukovany and Temelin nuclear power plants. This agreement could be impacted by the decision of the Czech government to remove the AP-1000 from its reactor bidding process.
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Nuclear Policy, Governance, and Geopolitics
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The Czech government announced it will seek bids to build four new nuclear power plant units, widening its long-running tender aimed at expanding its nuclear power capacity. The government stated it would invite the amended bids from Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) and Électricité de France (EDF) by April 15, while U.S. group Westinghouse did not meet the conditions for the tender. The Czech Republic is seeking a greater nuclear power capacity as it needs to cover rising consumption and shut down its coal-fired plants.
The Council of EU member states and the European Parliament agreed to label nuclear power as a strategic technology for the EU’s decarbonization, following months of negotiations over the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA). The NZIA aims to speed up the deployment of technologies that can contribute to meeting the EU’s net-zero emissions target, as well as accelerate permitting procedures for industrial production sites involved in the manufacturing of components needed for renewable energy technologies and nuclear power.
Poland’s General Director for Environmental Protection (GDOŚ) issued the scope of the environmental report for Orlen Synthos Green Energy’s (OSGE) small modular reactor project in Stawy Monowskie. GDOŚ indicated the main areas that the report will cover, including a natural inventory, technological solutions that affect nuclear safety and radiological protection, and indicating how the power plant will be integrated with the energy transmission network. In April 2023, OSGE announced it had shortlisted seven locations in Poland, ultimately choosing Stawy Monowskie to host SMR plants based on GE-Hitachi’s BWRX-300 technology.
Five companies have submitted applications expressing interest in the construction of two new proposed units at Bulgaria’s Kozloduy Nuclear Power Plant. The initial part of the selection process will be to check that those expressing interest meet the qualifying criteria, with candidates from Russia being specifically excluded. Bulgaria is seeking to build two new Westinghouse AP1000 reactors at Kozloduy, with the target date for completion of the first unit in 2033 and the second unit to follow 2-3 years after the first one.
Iran has begun construction on four more nuclear power plants in the southern part of the country according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), with an expected total capacity of 5,000 MW. Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran’s atomic agency, stated it will take up to 9 years to complete the new plants and will cost some $20 billion. Iran seeks to produce 20,000 megawatts of nuclear energy by 2041, while the IAEA remains concerned that Iran has increased the rate at which it is producing near-weapons grade uranium.
Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob stated that a cross-party summit has agreed on the need for both renewables and nuclear energy as part of the path to a carbon-free future. Those attending the meeting included Slovenia’s President, the President of the National Assembly, the President of the National Council, and leaders of the parliamentary parties. The Slovenian government has also planned a referendum on expanding the nuclear capacity of the Krško Nuclear Power Plant, with the aim of a final investment decision in 2027 or 2028 and the new capacity online in the 2030s.
France’s nuclear energy fleet will boast its most available capacity in at least five years in 2024 following the completion of prolonged maintenance shutdowns. France had 79% of its operational nuclear capacity available in January and may rise to 83% in February. France’s nuclear industry has been dealing with dwindling generation in recent years due to extended plant halts, with as little as 40% of the nuclear fleet available during August 2022. The outages and soaring gas prices contributed to Europe’s worst energy crisis in decades.
Rosatom’s Mining and Chemical Combine (MCC) said the research and development work on its molten salt research reactor project is now complete with a preliminary design developed. The MCC said the creation of the preliminary design was the next step towards creating a reactor which plans to use circulating molten salt fuel in a closed fuel cycle. The project is targeting a license for construction in 2027 and a launch in 2031.
Ontario’s provincial government is supporting Ontario Power Generation (OPG) to go ahead with the refurbishment of units 5-8 at the Pickering Nuclear Power Plant. The government is supporting OPG’s CAD 2 billion ($1.5 billion) budget for the initiation phase of the project, which will include engineering and design work as well as securing long-lead components to ensure materials are available as needed. OPG is more than half-way through a CAD 12.8 billion project to refurbish the four units at its Darlington plant, which is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2026.
Holtec International announced a new power plant which will combine nuclear and solar. The Combined Nuclear/Solar Plant (CNSP) features the company’s SMR-300 reactor model, its HI-TERM HSP solar thermal system, together with its Green Boiler energy storage system. Holtec believes the most immediate application of the CNSP technology is to repower coal-fired power plants, thereby minimizing the cost of the transition from coal to clean energy.
Chiltern Vital Group (CVG) bought a former nuclear power station in Berkeley, England to redevelop the site with small modular reactor (SMR) technology. Working with Rolls Royce, CVG plans to use the site to attract companies developing SMRs and technology related to SMR deployment. Rolls Royce is currently leading the development of SMRs in the United Kingdom.
Swiss nuclear engineering startup Transmutex raised $23 million to further develop and commercialize its subcritical nuclear energy system. Transmutex also announced a new round of financing to further develop its solution for proliferation-resistant nuclear energy technology, with the A2 round co-led by Union Square Ventures and Steel Atlas. Transmutex is looking to reinvent nuclear energy with the design of a subcritical reaction technology which has several benefits over self-sustaining nuclear energy solutions.
The Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC) initiated a tender process for the establishment of a domestic nuclear fuels assembly fabrication facility. The facility will produce fuel assemblies for the Barakah nuclear power plant. It will be specifically designed for the industrial fabrication of fuel assemblies, encompassing the assembly process from various components, while excluding enrichment or reprocessing activities. The Barakah nuclear power plant is a key component of the UAE’s energy strategy which has the goal of generating 25% of its electricity from nuclear power by 2025.
The IAEA conducted its follow-up Integrated Regulatory Review Service (IRRS) mission to the United Kingdom. The seven-day follow-up mission took place at the headquarters of the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) and Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR). The team found that the United Kingdom has a strong commitment to nuclear and radiation safety and has made progress to reinforce its regulatory functions. However, the IRRS team also noted that the inability of the United Kingdom to recruit and retain specialists and inspectors has had an impact on the regulatory processes of some bodies.
The IAEA Task Force conducting the safety review of Japan’s discharge of Fukushima Daiichi’s treated water issued its first full report since the water discharge began last year. The Task Force found the discharge to be consistent with international safety standards and reaffirmed the conclusions from the Agency’s comprehensive safety report issued in July last year. The Task Force also made several other conclusions, including that a robust regulatory infrastructure is in place to provide operational safety oversight of the treated water. The IAEA will continue to conduct Task Force review missions and maintain its presence at the Fukushima Daiichi NPS Office to monitor and assess the ongoing discharge.
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Domestic Civil Nuclear Developments
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The Biden administration is poised to lend $1.5 billion for the restart of the Palisades Nuclear Power Plant in Michigan, which would be the first restart of a shuttered U.S. nuclear plant. The funding will be offered as soon as next month to Holtec International and is set to get conditional backing from the U.S. Department of Energy. The Biden administration is prioritizing maintaining the nation’s fleet of nuclear plants to help meet its climate goals, and the Department of Energy has warned that as many as half of U.S. nuclear reactors are at risk of closing due to economic factors.
TRIGA International has begun fabricating fuel for the U.S. Department of Energy’s MARVEL microreactor project. The microreactor program plans to submit MARVEL’s preliminary safety analysis report for review later this summer, with the first shipment of fuel expected to be delivered in spring 2025 and the reactor projected to come online in 2027. MARVEL will be one of the first new reactors built at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in more than four decades and will be used to advance new reactor technologies.
TerraPower announced the selection of five suppliers to support its Natrium Reactor Demonstration Project. The supplier awards include GERB Vibration Control Systems, Thermal Engineering International, Hayward Tyler, Framatome US Government Solutions, and Teledyne Brown Engineering. The Natrium project features a 345 MWe sodium-cooled fast reactor with a molten salt-based energy storage system, and TerraPower is currently developing the demonstration project in Wyoming.
Xcel Energy is proposing to keep operating its two Prairie Island nuclear power reactors in Minnesota until the early 2050s. The latest resource plan Xcel submitted to state regulators calls for extending the life of its two nuclear units at Prairie Island by 20 years, as well as extending the Monticello Nuclear Power Plant’s license to 2050. The resource plan requires the approval of the state’s Public Utilities Commission after public hearings and extensive review, and extending the licenses of the nuclear plants would also require federal approval.
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) stated that the agency expects to receive 25 licensing applications in the next five years for small modular reactors (SMR) and advanced reactors. The planned SMR units will likely be up to about 200 megawatts in size. The NRC is currently reviewing applications for license extensions of 16 nuclear reactors “with more to come”.
The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) completed a pre-conceptual design review of NANO Nuclear Energy Inc’s ODIN low pressure coolant microreactor design. INL reviewed the technical information provided by NANO Nuclear on the reactor design, fuel and decommissioning strategy, culminating in a panel review workshop to discuss every applicable area of the design and the future work required to successfully deliver an optimized product. NANO and INL announced a Strategic Partnership Project Agreement in April 2023.
NASA announced the completion of the initial design phase of its Fission Surface Power Project. NASA outlined that the preliminary design must include the reactor’s power conversion systems, heat rejection mechanisms, and power management and distribution systems. NASA has been actively working to build a stable power source for future lunar colonies, with the anticipated timeline for delivering a reactor to the launch pad set for the early 2030s.
Two bills in the Hawaii State House have been proposed that would pave the way for a nuclear power plant in the state. House Bill 1516 would establish a nuclear energy commission to study the potential benefits of nuclear energy in Hawaii, and House Bill 1741 proposes an amendment to the Hawaii Constitution to allow the construction of a nuclear power plant without legislative approval. While nuclear power is receiving more legislative support in Hawaii, the recently proposed bills also face opposition from environmental groups.
Westinghouse Electric Company has shipped 25 irradiated experimental nuclear fuel rods to the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for testing and examination. Developed and manufactured by Westinghouse with technical assistance from several national laboratories, the new fuel technology is designed to enable nuclear power plants to extend their operating cycle from 18 months to 24 months. The fuel will be analyzed and tested at INL’s Materials and Fuel Complex and will also be subjected to safety tests with simulations of power excursions or loss-of-cooling events in a controlled environment.
The operation of the second new nuclear reactor at Plant Vogtle has been delayed again due to the detection of vibrating pipes in the unit’s critical cooling systems. While Georgia Power stated that the problem has been fixed, the resulting delay will push the reactor’s in-service date into the second quarter of this year and perhaps beyond. This announcement is the latest setback for the Plant Vogtle expansion, a project billions of dollars over budget and vexed by years of delays.
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Litigation corporation Morgan Lewis released a new report reviewing recent developments in rules and guidance from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Department of Energy that have impacted various aspects of the U.S. nuclear energy industry. Areas covered in the report include cybersecurity, small modular reactors, advanced reactors, sustainability, export controls, plant decommissioning, microreactors, and fusion systems. The report also considers potential future developments that may further affect the nuclear industry in the coming year.
The Nuclear Innovation Alliance (NIA) published a report reviewing the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) current licensing process for new nuclear power plants. The report concludes that it is unlikely the agency could reasonably scale existing licensing processes as they are currently implemented to meet the potential future high volume licensing demand to meet mid-century goals. The NIA subsequently identifies major licensing processes that most significantly constrain NRC licensing capacity and presents three specific proposals that aim to enable high-volume licensing of advanced nuclear energy in the long term.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) published a report analyzing the global electricity trends that occurred in 2023 and forecasts trends to 2026. The IEA found that global electricity demand is expected to rise at a faster rate over the next three years, with about 85% of additional electricity demand set to come from outside of the world’s advanced economies through 2026. When it comes to nuclear energy, global nuclear generation is forecast to exceed its previous record by 2021, with Asia remaining the main driver of growth in nuclear power. The region’s share of global nuclear generation is projected to reach 30% in 2026.
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Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, February 6
E&E News, February 6
Forbes, February 6
Politico, February 6
Utility Dive, February 6
Power Technology, February 5
Real Clear Energy, February 5
CNN, February 1
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 31
Maryland Matters, January 31
Bloomberg, January 30
Cosmos Magazine, January 29
Sifted, January 29
Yahoo! Finance, January 28
The Daily Sentinel, January 28
DW News, January 28
Eureka Alert, January 26
Payload, January 26
Forbes, January 25
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News items and summaries compiled by:
Patrick Kendall, Program Manager, Partnership for Global Security
Emily Day, Della Ratta Fellow, Partnership for Global Security
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For twenty-five years the Partnership for Global Security (PGS) has developed actionable responses to global security challenges by engaging international, private sector, and multidisciplinary expert partners to assess policy needs, identify effective strategies, and drive demonstrable results.
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