Yes, there is a bit of good news in today's featured quote, a silver lining. It comes at the beginning when we are told that African swine fever is not a disease that affects people. The rest of the news is pretty bad, and the numbers for China are staggering.
Donald Marvin captured the scale quite well in a short, effective piece he wrote for Forbes last month. He began with this statement:
Pork is the most widely consumed meat in the world, and China, as the largest consumer and producer, is the primary reason why pork has earned its status as the world's favorite protein.
Then he added some statistics:
China consumes about 56 billion pounds of pork per year, more than half of total global consumption. Likewise, the Chinese hog herd numbers more than 440 million head, which is nearly three times larger than all of Europe and almost six times larger than the U.S., the second largest pork-producing nation.
Even in a "normal" trading environment, ASF would have significant consequences. We assume those would include an increased demand from China for U.S. pork, a drop in the demand for soybeans, and intense international cooperation among veterinary experts. The political fever across the Pacific that is cutting two-way trade between the United States and China is clearly a further complication. How it is playing out is a question for the experts. When it will end is anyone's guess.
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