On this Valentine's Day -- and with affection for all readers -- we thought we would step back from the usual round of trade developments and recall a few texts that sit side by side in your editor's mind, if not anywhere else.
The first, today's featured quote, is from
Christopher Marlowe's famous poem "The Passionate Shepherd to His Love." We'll not quote the whole thing, but, at the least, you deserve the prompt of the first stanza:
Come live with me and be my love,
And we will all the pleasures prove,
That Valleys, groves, hills, and fields,
Woods, or steepy mountain yields.
The parenthetical (Publication date) after 1599 above is more significant than usual. 1599 is the year in which the poem was published, but that was three years after Marlowe's death. So, he did not see his work's wide public expression, and he certainly was unaware of
Sir Walter Raleigh's reply, published in 1600. We'll get to that.
Marlowe's lines may be idealistic, but they have their appeal. And in a profound sense, they work. Countless young men have won their hearts' desires with just such simple appeals. In trade terms, we'd put Marlowe's proposal right up there with the theory of comparative advantage. We are not going to quote
Adam Smith or
David Ricardo here, in part because we find their work, especially Smith's
An Inquiry Into the Wealth of Nations too rich and nuanced for easy summation.
We shall turn instead to an academic's distillation. Princeton's
Alan Blinder makes the case for free trade in the current issue of Foreign Affairs. "Adam Smith and David Ricardo made the definitive case against mercantilism and for free trade more than 200 years ago," he writes. Further on he explains:
It takes some time to understand why Ricardo was right. His basic insight was this: if Countries A and B trade with each other, Country A can specialize in producing what it is best at, Country B can specialize in producing what it is least bad at, and then the two countries can trade to their mutual advantage.
Fine as that analysis may be, it leaves out a lot. If there is a centerpiece to today's U.S.-China trade clash it is "Made in China 2025." Any consideration of that ambitious set of policies leads ineluctably to the conclusion that for most countries - major powers especially - comparative advantage is not something they merely exploit. It is something they purposely and competitively pursue and not for economic gains alone.
Another article in the current issue of Foreign Affairs is by an academic from Georgetown University,
Oriana Skylar Mastro. In her article on China, "The Stealth Power," she writes.
Thanks to this [relatively quiet, non-confrontational] strategy, China has been able to grow into one of the most powerful countries in the world, second, perhaps, only to the United States. And if it had chosen to persist with this strategy, the country would have continued to stay off the United States' radar screen. But rising powers can delay provocation for only so long, and the bad news for the United States-and for peace and security in Asia-is that China has now entered the beginning stages of a direct challenge to the U.S.-led order. ...
China is no longer content to play second fiddle to the United States and seeks to directly challenge its position in the Indo-Pacific Region.
All of this brings us to the great courtier, adventurer, and favorite of Queen Elizabeth I, Sir Walter Raleigh. In 1600, he published a response to Marlowe's poem. This was "The Nymph's Reply to the Shepherd," and it began:
If all the world and love were young,
And truth in every Shepherd's tongue,
These pretty pleasures might me move,
To live with thee, and be thy love.
***
We were tempted to let Sir Walter have the final word here, but we could not close without some comment on USMCA, without a valentine for North America. As we see it,
America's most immediate and most important trade challenge right now is making the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement a functioning reality. At the moment, it is but a blueprint and without legal force.
Like every issue in trade there are countless dimensions and issues to ponder and debate in the USMCA. Some charges against the agreement have merit. The fact is, however, that during the 25 years of NAFTA, the United States, Canada, and Mexico learned to work together effectively, but there was always a challenge, a political pathogen. With the USMCA, the three countries can - for now and perhaps for a very long time to come - put that challenge aside and continue their mutually beneficial cooperation. First, however, the U.S. Congress needs to approve the agreement and its implementing legislation. With that in mind, we'll give
Robert Browning last word on this 14th of February:
Grow old along with me!
The best is yet to be ... .
HAPPY VALENTINE'S DAY!
