10th Ave S, Minneapolis MN • 612.489.1863 • cap@orourkesc.com |
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Post-Election Breakdown & Analysis |
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Greetings!
Well those hoping for a red wave in Minnesota are not happy campers today. Governor Walz’ was the first significant race to be called. As the night progressed and legislative returns came in it was clear - pretty early on - that there were going to be a lot of close races. The first two incumbents to be defeated were both GOP House members and largely, that trend continued.
Kurt Daudt called Melissa Hortman to concede the Majority after midnight and, this morning the GOP conceded it will lose the Senate by the slimmest of margins; one seat. The DFL also swept all constitutional offices.
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Governor
Governor Walz fell off of his vote totals from 2018 slightly, but not enough to make it very close. He handily won the major population centers, which just made it too hard for Jenson to overcome.
Jenson's campaign could never really get the momentum that it needed over the summer. One of the bigger hurdles was that, while he gained traction for his stance on Covid and vaccines, internal polls showed that most Minnesotans actually supported how Walz handled the pandemic. This left Jenson to talk about issues that were outside of his comfort zone and - the Dodd ruling in the spring gave Walz a very critical separating issue to run on.
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House
I predicted that if the House DFL won it would happen in the suburbs, and that was certainly true. Incumbent defeats in Anoka, Coon Rapids and Chanhassen, along with a rash of victories in open seats, led the way for the DFL House caucus to retain their majority - even while losing 4 outstate seats, including 2 incumbents. One of those was Rep. Mary Murphy, the matriarch of the House, serving 46 years. She lost by 32 votes. The other incumbent DFLer, Ecklund is down by 15 votes. Both could be subject to a recount.
Here’s how the Key House races we were watching all came out:
*Incumbents are in BOLD type.
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Outstate
3a Ecklund v Skraba: Arrowhead area
3b Murphy v Zeleznikar: Duluth suburbs
7b Lislegard v Norri: Iron range
14a Wolgamot V Henning; St Cloud
11a Radosevich v Dotseth: Open Seat Cloquet
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Suburbs
35a Stephenson v Heinrich: Anoka
35b Newton v Mattesson: Open Coon rapids
48b Rehm v Boe: Chanhassen
36b Curran v Gunderson: Open Vadnais Heights
47b Cha v Fenton: Open Seat Woodbury
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Senate
The DFL flipped the Senate by one vote. In addition to winning suburban open seats with favorable lines, the real key was their wins in greater Minnesota, particularly in Moorhead, St Cloud, and on the Range.
Two races that the GOP will be kicking themselves over are SD3 and SD41. In both cases the GOP House candidates won the A&B sides (pending recounts) but the DFL Senate candidates walked away with a win. In SD41 the former GOP House member (Tony Jurgens) lost his Senate primary and then later endorsed the DFL candidate, a few days before the election.
Here’s how the Key Senate races we were watching all came out:
*Incumbents are in BOLD type.
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Outstate
3 Zupanich v Hauschild: Open Seat North Shore
7 Farnsworth v Denucci: Open Seat Iron Range
4 Bohmer v Kupec: Open Seat Moorhead
14 Putnam v Theis: St Cloud
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Suburbs
36 Chamberlain v Gustafson: Lino lakes
35 Abeler v Rehrauer: Anoka
41 Seeberger v Dippel: Open Seat Hastings
55 Port v Myrha: Burnsville
48 Coleman v Kessler: Savage
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By my count there will be more than 65 new legislators. Now, some have previous elected experience and may be simply moving from one body to the other, but even then, there are a lot of new faces and there will be a learning curve for everyone, come January.
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Statewide
With all the hype and prediction about his year being the first year that GOP could win a statewide election many thought that AG Keith Ellison or even State Auditor Blaha were vulnerable. Even with the underperformance of Walz and some local candidates, both Ellison and Blaha garnered enough votes to claim victory Wednesday morning.
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Congress
In the 2nd Congressional, Angie Craig and Tyler Kistner face off again - but in a slightly new (redrawn) district that seems to be more red now. It was a tight race that went back and forth last night, but ultimately Craig emerged victorious.
Control of the US Senate will once again be decided in a Georgia runoff, as neither candidate achieved 50%+ of the vote (deja vu 2020 anyone?)
Meanwhile it looks like Republicans will probably secure enough seats to flip the US House, but by how large of a margin is yet to be determined. Minnesota Representative Tom Emmer will almost certainly be elevated to a leadership position of some kind if Republicans do in fact take over.
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MANY KUDOS (again) to all Election Officials - as well as city and county staffers - who all work very hard to make safe and fair elections possible in Minnesota! You are very much appreciated. |
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What's Next? ...
When the election results are formally finalized in a few weeks, the REAL work will begin.
This week, all four caucus will convene to elect leadership. Obviously the MN Senate will have a new leader and I am hearing that there are at least 3 candidates. I fully expect Melissa Hortman to remain the Speaker, but now that Rep. Winkler is gone, there is an open leadership position and I expect there will be a contest for that.
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Cap O'Rourke
O'Rourke Strategic Consulting
612.483.1863
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Both GOP caucuses will also pick leadership. When elections don't go as expected there can often be ramifications, so pay attention to see if Daudt and Miller are able to keep those positions or if there will be new people stepping into those roles.
As I said on Monday, countless staffers - both in campaign and legislative offices - woke up today facing the realization that they’ll need to find a new job. This can be a difficult time so if you know of someone like this, please reach out to them and buy them lunch ... or a coffee ... or a puppy (ok, maybe not a puppy).
The first day of the 2023 MN Legislative Session will begin on Tuesday, January 3, at 12:00 p.m., with a House Floor Session and I look forward to being in touch with you shortly thereafter, with the first weekly update of session. In the meantime, HAPPY (all the upcoming) HOLDAYS!
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