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All 80 members of the general Assembly and all 40 members of the NJ state Senate are running along with local races. Legislative districts have been redrawn based on the 2020 census. Currently, the Democrats hold 25 seats in the Senate and 46 seats in the Assembly. Republicans hold 15 seats in the Senate and 34 in the Assembly. Republican need six seats in the Senate to take control: seven in the Assembly.
We’re expecting massive turnover in the NJ legislature. On the Senate side, eight are retiring. In the NJ Assembly, twenty-three Assembly members are either retiring or running for state Senate seats. This year is notable given the large number of incumbents that have chosen not to run for reelection. They are either retiring, lost party support or are running for another office (i.e. Senate, or municipal/ county office).
Some of the campaign issues include (but are not limited to): parental rights in K-12 education, property taxes, abortion, and issues related to Governor Murphy’s Energy Master Plan (i.e. off-shore wind power infrastructure, gas cars, and “gas-stove bans.” Although Democrats outnumber Republicans by almost a million registered voters, some polling suggests that Republicans might have some advantages on some of the issues this election cycle.
Two recent Monmouth University polls indicate both parental rights and wind energy are issues that could help Republicans. The poll on parental rights found that more than three-quarters of people said schools should notify parents if their child wants to be identified as a different gender than is on their school registration, even as the state attorney general has gone to court to stop such notifications. The other poll, also released last month, found barely more than a majority of New Jersey residents support offshore wind development — a 30-point drop from 2011. Some 40% opposed wind farms off the coast, saying they could hurt the summer tourism economy, and 45% said offshore wind exploration is contributing to whale deaths.
Republican leaders and strategists agree they have the best chances of success in the following legislative districts: 4 (Gloucester Co.), 11 (Monmouth Co), 16 (Hunterdon/Mercer Co) and 38 (Bergen/Passaic). Most likely, however, Republicans will not gain control of either the Senate or Assembly, as the math is on the Democrat’ side. For them to maintain their majorities in both houses, Democrats don’t need to win in any Republican or even swing districts, as there are enough districts that lean Democrat for them to win. By comparison, Republicans would need to win in every Republican district, every swing district, and then they’d still need to win in a couple of Democratic-leaning districts to win a majority in either house of the legislature.
Turnout will also play a major role. In 2021, during the gubernatorial election, turnout was 40.5% (Compared with 38.5% in 2017 and 39.6% in 2013). In 2019, the last time both the Senate and Assembly were up for reelection at the same time, turnout was about 27%.
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