General Election Preview – Legislature
House Races to Watch
HD 3: Debo Powers (D) v. Cathy Mitchell (R) - Flathead
This brand-new Flathead seat has a partisan lean of 53%, favoring Democrats, and incorporates the communities of Olney, Ford, West Glacier, Essex, and Polebridge. Whitefish and Columbia Falls are split between this district and HD 4, with HD 3 containing northwest Whitefish and northern Columbia Falls. Powers, a retired teacher, was appointed to a more Columbia Falls-based district after Rep. Zac Perry (D) resigned when he moved in 2019, but she lost her re-election bid to Rep. Braxton Mitchell (R) in 2020. Cathy Mitchell is a nurse practitioner, and this is her first run for public office. Read more about the race here:
HD 4: Lindsey Jordan (D) v. Lyn Bennet (R) - Flathead
Another new seat in the Flathead, HD 4, is a 50-50 district with the bulk of Columbia Falls and the southeast section of Whitefish, including downtown. Jordan is a social worker, and Bennet is a former nurse and president of the Glacier Country Pachyderm Club. She ran and lost to Rep. Dave Fern (D-Whitefish) in 2022. Read more about the race here:
HD 19: Jane Webber (D) v. Hannah Trebas (R) – Great Falls
This new district in downtown Great Falls is the friendliest to Democrats of all the districts in Cascade County but is still only a 50-50 district. Webber is a former forester and Cascade County Commissioner, and Trebas is a home educator and is married to Sen. Jeremy Trebas (R). More about the race here:
HD 20: Rina Moore (D) v. Melissa Nikolakakos (R) – Great Falls
HD 20 contains the west downtown portion of downtown Great Falls and is another 50-50 swing district. Moore is a realtor and the former Cascade County Clerk and Recorder, who lost her re-election bid in 2022 by 38 votes. Nikolakakos is a teacher and the wife of Rep. George Nikolokakos (R). More about the race here:
HD 27: Rep. Paul Tuss (D) v. former Rep. Ed Hill (R) – Havre
This will be a redo of the 2022 race that saw Tuss winning by about 300 votes, but redistricting made this seat a tad more Republican, and it now has a partisan lean slightly favoring the GOP. Tuss is the ideal Democratic candidate with strong ties in the community, serving as the head of the local economic development agency for nearly thirty years. Hill is retired from BNSF and served one term in the House before being defeated in 2022. He is the chair of the Hill County Republican Central Committee. This seat would be ripe for a GOP pick-up in a Presidential election year where the GOP nominee is expected to win big, but Tuss’s strong local ties might be too much to overcome. Read more about the race here:
HD 47: James Reavis (D) v. Stephanie Moncada (R) – Billings
This district focused on downtown Billings presents Democrats with a pick-up opportunity since the partisan lean favors Democrats at 55%. Reavis is an attorney, and Moncada is a retired law enforcement officer. Reavis previously ran for the legislature in 2022 against Mallerie Stromswold (R) but lost by 103 votes. Moncada defeated her primary election opponent with 52% of the vote.
HD 48: Anne Ross (D) v. Curtis Schomer (R) – Billings
This open seat previously held by Rep. Mike Yakawich is a 50-50 swing district. Ross is an artist and entrepreneur, and Schomer is a hard rock miner and union member.
HD 56: Jamie Isaly (D) v. Jason Gunderson (R) – Livingston
This open seat previously held by Rep. Laurie Bishop (D) has a 53% partisan lean favoring Democrats. Isaly is a retired teacher, and Gunderson is a law enforcement officer and is the son of former Rep. Steve Gunderson (R-Libby). Read more about the race here:
HD 57: Rep. Marty Malone (R) v. Scott Rosenzweig (D) – rural Livingston Park County
Rep. Marty Malone’s district was changed significantly and now is a 50-50 swing district that still includes the rural areas outside of Livingston in Paradise Valley, including Pray and Gardiner, but it now also includes Cooke City, Clyde Park, and even the hospital area of Bozeman. Malone is running for his 3rd term and is a former Park County Commissioner. Rosenzweig is an entrepreneur in satellite communications. Read more about the race here:
HD 60: Alannah Griffith (D) v. Jerry Johnson (R) - Bozeman
The Bozeman area saw major changes during redistricting, with the delegation increasing by two legislative seats to 8 total seats. Democrats can run the table in Bozeman if they win HD 60; all other districts have a partisan lean favoring Democrats of at least 55%. The sole swing district is HD 60, a 50-50 seat incorporating Gallatin Gateway, West Yellowstone, and Big Sky. Griffith is an attorney, and Johnson is a property manager who served 24 years in West Yellowstone as the Mayor and city councilor. Read more about the race here:
HD 89: Rep. Mark Thane (D) v. Lyn Hellegaard (R) - Missoula
Redistricting created a situation where two incumbents were put in the same district. If Thane prevails, Democrats will likely control every district in the City of Missoula. Thane is a retired teacher running for his 3rd term in the House. Hellegaard is a banker, small business owner, and former Missoula City Councilwoman running for her 2nd term in the House.
Senate Races to Watch
SD 2: Rep. Dave Fern (D) v. Doug Adams (R) – Whitefish and Columbia Falls
This new Senate seat presents an opportunity for Democrats to pick up a lone Senate seat in the Flathead as it has a 53% partisan lean favoring Democrats. Fern is a small business owner running for the seat after being termed out in the House. Adams is a landscaper who has served the City of Whitefish as deputy mayor and city councilor and currently serves on the Flathead County Libraries board of trustees. Read more about the race here:
SD 21: Rep. Sharon Stewart Peregoy (D) v. Rep. Gayle Lammers (R)
With Sen. Jason Small (R) being term-limited, Democrats have a chance to win back this seat, encompassing the Crow and Northern Cheyenne reservations and having a 55% partisan lean favoring Democrats. Peregoy has served for the last 16 years in the legislature. This would be her 2nd stint in the Senate after being termed out of her House seat. Lammers, recently appointed to the House to replace now-Department of Commerce Director Paul Green, owns and operates a 5th generation family business, the Lammers Trading Post in Hardin. While the partisan lean favors Democrats, this seat was previously held by a Republican, and the state GOP is bullish on Lammers.
SD 24: Rep. Mike Yakawich (R) v. Mark Nicholson (D)
This open seat previously held by term-limited Sen. Jen Gross (D) presents a rare pick-up for the GOP after redistricting. SD 24, which encompasses downtown and southcentral Billings, is a 50-50 swing district. Yakawich is a former small business owner and Billings City Council member appointed in 2022 to succeed Frank Fleming in the House. Nicholson is a retired physician.
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