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September Market Summary
Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 3.0% in the second quarter, according to the third and final estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures, the largest contributor to overall GDP, rose 1.90%. Current dollar GDP increased 5.6% in the second quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.5% (3.4% in the first quarter). Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.8% (3.7% in the first quarter). Personal income increased $50.5 billion, or 0.2%, in August, according to estimates released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income, personal income less personal current taxes, increased $34.2 billion, or 0.2%, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.2 billion, or 0.2%. The PCE price index increased 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.1%. Since August 2023, the PCE price index has risen 2.2%, while the PCE price index less food and energy rose 2.7%.
Sales of new single-family houses in August 2024 were 4.7% below the July rate but 9.8% above the August 2023 estimate. The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2024 was $420,600. The average sales price was $492,700. Inventory of new single-family houses for sale represented a supply of 7.8 months at the current sales rate. New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up six of the last seven months, were unchanged from July, which estimated a 9.9% increase in durable goods orders. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5%. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.2%. The international trade in goods deficit was $94.3 billion in August, down $8.6 billion from July. Exports of goods for August were $177.0 billion, $4.1 billion more than July exports. Imports of goods for August were $271.3 billion, $4.5 billion less than July imports. The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.185 per gallon on September 23, $0.005 per gallon above the prior week's price but $0.652 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of September 23, the East Coast price fell $0.033 to $3.052 per gallon; the Midwest price increased $0.072 to $3.077 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price rose $0.005 to $2.733 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price climbed $0.034 to $3.434 per gallon; and the West Coast price decreased $0.025 to $4.111 per gallon.
For the week ended September 21, there were 218,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's level, which was revised up by 3,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims for the week ended September 14 was 1.2%, unchanged from the previous week's rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended September 14 was 1,834,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's level, which was revised down by 8,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates for the week ended September 7 were New Jersey (2.4%), California (2.0%), Puerto Rico (2.0%), Rhode Island (2.0%), Nevada (1.7%), Washington (1.7%), Massachusetts (1.6%), New York (1.6%), Illinois (1.5%), and Pennsylvania (1.4%). The largest increases in initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended September 14 were in Texas (+2,216), New York (+1,842), California (+1,108), Georgia (+1,014), and Michigan (+787), while the largest decreases were in Massachusetts (-1,969), Wisconsin (-794), Connecticut (-569), Nebraska (-517), and Louisiana (-224).
Eye on the Week Ahead
October kicks off with the release of the September employment figures. Job gains have slowed notably over the past few months, which contributed to the cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. It appears that the Fed is nearing its goals of maximum employment and 2.0% inflation.
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