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Ag Weather Update

Matt Dixon, Meteorologist

UK Ag Weather Center

Updated 11-11-22

Get ready! Old Man Winter is coming early!

Happy Veterans Day and thank you to all those that have served! Unfortunately, it's not the greatest weather day in Kentucky. As you're probably well aware at this point, BIG changes are on the way!. We currently have the remnants of Hurricane Nicole and a strong cold front pushing through the area. This setup has produced a much-needed soaking rainfall across the eastern half of the state. Below is a look at some of those totals (valid 3PM EST), courtesy of the Kentucky Mesonet. A large chunk of the area has seen more than an inch!

Moving forward, look for any rain showers to exit the state by 8PM-ish. All eyes then turn towards tonight and tomorrow morning, where we'll see another quick-hitting round of precipitation. Key word = precipitation. As cooler air filters into the region, precipitation type will vary, even producing some snow. Right now, it appears the best chance lies across Western KY and northeast into the Bluegrass. Below is a look at one of those models runs, showing precipitation type tomorrow morning. This is only one model, but most are pretty similar. The latest model runs are even starting to hint at a band of higher accumulations. Something to watch as we get closer. Winter weather is one of the more complex forecasts in this profession.

The good news though is that warm ground temperatures will mitigate impacts. Any light accumulations will likely be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces. Something to add...this doesn't appear to be the only winter weather threat this upcoming week. It's still a little ways out, but keep an eye on Monday night and Tuesday.

The big news this weekend is the very cold air on the way. Some will likely not get out of the 30s tomorrow under mostly cloudy skies and northwest flow. Normal highs for this time of year run in the middle 50s to low 60s! Unfortunately, the cool air is going to stick around. The common theme the rest of the week will be highs in the low to middle 40s and overnight lows well-below freezing, at times hitting the low to mid 20s. Bottom line, this will be a shock to the system. Not only for us, but also animals. Be sure to take preventative measures to reduce cold stress!

Looking farther out, the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks both point to VERY high confidence in below normal temperatures sticking around through at least the third full week of November.

Drought Update

The rain today (11/11) has been a welcome sight for folks across the eastern half of Kentucky. The latest update to the U.S. Drought Monitor (below), released on November 10th, shows a slight uptick in moderate and severe drought across the state (mainly Eastern KY). Saying that, there was some improvements made across Western KY. While this area missed out on the rainfall today, they've hit on some significant rounds over the past couple weeks that others have not.

Prior to today (11/11), the state had only averaged 1.39 inches over the past 30 days. That number only grows to 1.70 over the past 60 (back to September 12th). Officially, it was the 15th driest October ever recorded in Kentucky (map below). If we also take into account September, it was the 11th driest September and October ever recorded (data back to 1895). The rain today is definitely a welcomed sight! Some will see more today than the total over the past 2 months!

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Related News from UK and Beyond

Kentucky Crop Progress and Condition Report - USDA NASS Kentucky Field Office, November 7, 2022

Midwest Ag-Focus Climate Outlook - USDA Midwest Climate Hub, November 8, 2022

Kentucky Corn and Soybean Production Smaller - USDA, NASS, Kentucky Field Office, November 9, 2022


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