To: 165 reporters and commentators; plus 164 folks who are generally interested in good governance including members of the Social Mavrik Federation .

From: Bob Bray, President, Social Mavrik Federation

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This copy of my 5th message about the One Day Voting Initiative Petition

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CAMPBELL RIVER: Bob Bray discovers an undeclared advantage for NDP candidates in the Vote by Mail voting opportunity during the 2020 snap provincial election.

My interest in voting opportunities in the 2020 provincial election was piqued by a recent 2021 local election.

I was surprised when the first-counted vote results from the 2021 trustee by-election in Chilliwack were overturned by the Vote by Mail results.

Prior to the Vote by Mail count Richard Procee was leading with 4,483 votes over Carin Bodnar with 4,422 votes.

In the Vote by Mail results Richard Procee obtained 303 votes and Carin Bodnar obtained 1,033.

This dramatic difference in vote results from a single type of voting opportunity had a smell to it for me.

I then examined the vote results from the 2020 snap provincial election where the Vote by Mail voting opportunity was utilized extensively due to the pandemic.

The Elections BC website has an Excel file called the "Interim Statement of Votes". This file reports results from each voting area and each voting opportunity for all 87 ridings. The file has 34,565 rows. This information will be included in the Excel and PDF "Statement of Votes".

Using this information I was able to determine that the Vote by Mail voting opportunity also gave an advantage in the Chilliwack riding in the 2020 provincial election. The advantage can be seen by comparing the popular vote from Vote by Mail to the Total popular vote. There are two patterns of difference: one where the Vote by Mail results are over the Total results and one where the Vote by Mail results are under the Total results.

It turns out that the Vote by Mail results for NDP candidates were consistently over their Total results. And the Vote by Mail results for the candidates in the Social Maverick Voter's Guide were consistently under their Total results.

Here's the popular vote comparison for the Chilliwack riding showing the over and under points and their combination into the tilt amount:

Click here to see a larger version of the above image.

And here's a sample of popular vote comparisons for 6 ridings and 4 parties:

Click here to see a larger version of the above image.

Detailed calculations for all 42 ridings from the Social Mavrik Voter's Guide can be seen here.

Vote by Mail legislation gives an undeclared advantage to NDP candidates.

The images above are included in the social media post shown below.

The name of this legislative petition is: Initiative to change the voting opportunities in provincial elections.

The petition is described on the Current Initiative Petitions page of the Elections BC website along with the Public Notice which can be seen here as a PDF document.

It's a way to get directly involved in the political process between elections.

And it's great for couples!

Both register as canvassers by mail or email. Both receive a signature sheet by mail or email. Each witnesses the other's signature. Both return the signature sheets by mail or email. And collecting a single signature is appreciated. It's a way to participate in the political process from the comfort of your home.

A canvasser experiences British Columbia's direct democracy process - which is unique in Canada. .

A registered canvasser will see his or her name on two online lists, one with names in alphabetical order and one with names in geographical order.

The alphabetical list is maintained on the Elections BC website.

The geographical list will be maintained on the Social Mavrik website. It shows each canvasser's home riding. This list is currently under development.

If you are thinking of registering as a canvasser, of course there is an Elections BC application form. When a completed form is approved by the proponent (that's me) it is submitted to Elections BC. An identification card is issued and sent to the proponent who forwards it to the newly registered canvasser. The application form is here. Please send the completed form to this email address or mail it to the contact address shown below.

As I write this there are 0 canvassers registered for signature gathering after August 9th from folks who wish to push back.

Canvassers for this One Day Voting petition will be invited to occasional half-hour group Zoom calls hosted by me for training and strategizing plus question and answer conversations.

The name of the second legislative petition in 2021 is: Initiative to conduct a Surrey policing binding referendum.

The petition is described on the Current Initiative Petitions page of the Elections BC website.

At the time of writing 0 canvassers are registered for signature gathering after August 16th from folks who prefer national policing over local policing.

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Bob Bray, President, Social Mavrik Federation

Phone: 250-504-0052

Mail: 784 Bowen Drive, Campbell River, British Columbia V9H 1S2

Email: bob.bray@socialmavrikbc.ca

Website: socialmavrikbc.ca

I posted the image below on facebook.com/bob.bray.334

and on mewe.com/i/bobbray1.

Click here to see a larger version of the above image.

Click here to see a larger version of the above image.

As of July 5th the above tweet was seen 119 times with 1 engagement.