My interest in voting opportunities in the 2020 provincial election was piqued by a recent 2021 local election.
I was surprised when the first-counted vote results from the 2021 trustee by-election in Chilliwack were overturned by the Vote by Mail results.
Prior to the Vote by Mail count Richard Procee was leading with 4,483 votes over Carin Bodnar with 4,422 votes.
In the Vote by Mail results Richard Procee obtained 303 votes and Carin Bodnar obtained 1,033.
This dramatic difference in vote results from a single type of voting opportunity had a smell to it for me.
I then examined the vote results from the 2020 snap provincial election where the Vote by Mail voting opportunity was utilized extensively due to the pandemic.
The Elections BC website has an Excel
file called the "Interim Statement of Votes". This file reports results from each voting area and each voting opportunity for all 87 ridings. The file has 34,565 rows. This information will be included in the Excel and PDF "Statement of Votes".
Using this information I was able to determine that the Vote by Mail voting opportunity also gave an advantage in the Chilliwack riding in the 2020 provincial election. The advantage can be seen by comparing the popular vote from Vote by Mail to the Total popular vote. There are two patterns of difference: one where the Vote by Mail results are over the Total results and one where the Vote by Mail results are under the Total results.
It turns out that the Vote by Mail results for NDP candidates were consistently over their Total results. And the Vote by Mail results for the candidates in the Social Maverick Voter's Guide were consistently under their Total results.
Here's the popular vote comparison for the Chilliwack riding showing the over and under points and their combination into the tilt amount: