I know, I know, I was one of the voices pushing ultra-caution last year. And I know, people feel like it’s still going to take a long time to get back to normal, given the shambolic vaccine roll-out, the emergence of new variants, etc. But the overwhelming crappiness of the present should not blind us to what is likely to happen over the next few months. Life will be much different – and better – by July, and we need to think through what that means.
Let’s start by thinking about what current vaccination outlook is. We know that Canada is supposed to have 23 million doses from Moderna and Pfizer by the end of June – that means 11.5 million vaccinations. Even assuming 2 million of those doses go to essential care workers, that still leaves enough vaccines for everyone over 60 to be fully vaccinated by June. Now, while the over-60s only account for 20% of total cases, they account for 71% of hospitalizations and 96% of all deaths.
I can’t stress this enough: a COVID where the death rate is cut by 96% is an entirely different order of public health issue than the one we have faced for the last twelve months. Remember all those misguided souls (like those who signed the Great Barrington Declaration) who claimed COVID would be no worse than a mild flu if only we could protect the vulnerable? This was incredibly dangerous nonsense at the time because there was no way to do so. But, now, with the vaccine, there is.
OK, one might argue, but on the evidence of the initial roll-out, 23 million doses in the country doesn’t mean 23 million doses distributed. Well, it’s true that the roll-out to date hasn’t been brilliant and given who is in charge of it in Ontario, I expect we will have many not-so-good weeks to come. But look, its not as though provincial health systems have completely forgotten how to inject people. 10 million people in four months is just a regular flu season in Canada. There are some complications this time because of the double jab, and because there is a lot of concern about the “wrong people” getting the drug too early. But it should be handleable.
New variants a problem? They certainly will be in the next couple of months, before the vulnerable are fully vaccinated. But while these viruses spread more rapidly, there is not yet much worry that extant vaccines are significantly less effective against these variants. So, yes, they will cause problems, possibly quite severe ones, in the weeks before we get to roughly 30% coverage. But after that, while vigilance is required, they don’t change the picture that much: A lot of people will get sick, but very few severely so. A lot like seasonal flu, in fact.
Plus, there is a very good reason to think this is the pessimistic case. Two more vaccines (Astra Zeneca and Johnson & Johnson) seem to be reasonably close to approval. Canada has something on the order of 60 million doses on order from these two manufacturers (and the J&J doses are single-dose not double-dose so on their own they cover almost the entire population of Canada). Delivery dates are of course a secret because this is Canada and no one is allowed to know anything and even if we did know, we’ve all learned over the past month or so that actual dates are a crap shoot. So, we don’t know when extra doses are coming in, but we do know they are coming. And what universities and colleges need to remember is that every timeline for vaccine distribution you have seen so far ignores Astra Zeneca and Johnson & Johnson. They are only based on Moderna and Pfizer; they assume these other 60 million doses do not exist.
Now that only takes us to the end of June, beginning of July. The best guess is that vaccines are going to be ever-more plentiful during the summer. When the federal government is saying that everyone who wants a vaccine will get one be the end of September, they are making that prediction without Astra Zeneca and Johnson & Johnson. In fact, there is a strong likelihood that everyone over 20 who needs a jab by the end of August will have one. Maybe even earlier.
So, now, ask yourself: given all this, why in God’s name would universities and colleges not be open in September? I am starting to see colleges and universities make decisions about the fall, and many of them (Lethbridge excepted) seem very cautious to me. And I get it: we’re still currently – and rightly – in a very defensive mode. But if we make decisions about September using a February mindset, we are setting ourselves up for some bad decision-making. The vast majority of students – 70-80% or so - are simply desperate to be back on campus, to be back with friends, to be in classes. They will be simply – and rightly – furious if we force them into another term of remote learning when the rest of the economy is open.
Now, I get it: my scenario is not current common wisdom. We’re all thinking we’re vulnerable, and right now, we are. But folks: skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been. I know professors are scared about going back to class now. But by September, damn near every professor will likely have had the jab: that’s a totally different world, and we need to envisage being in it when making decisions.
I don’t want to minimize the challenges here: there is indeed some degree of uncertainty about the pace of vaccinations and the rate at which the COVID danger will recede. Even if COVID ceases to be a serious mortality threat, the existence and severity of so-called “long-COVID” will be scary enough to make precautions a needed requirement. Institutions will almost certainly want to keep mask mandates in place this fall, and maybe cap classroom sizes too. They will want to have vaccination sites on campus and have plans to offer vaccinations to all international students (I think most urban Chinese students will have access to the vaccine before August, but elsewhere I suspect coverage might not be complete). And maybe, it would be a good idea to push the start of term back a week or two, just to give the vaccination tally a little bit higher before starting back up.
But the bottom line is: pay no mind to infection rates in the interim, because they won’t be relevant come fall. The key numbers are the vaccines: as long as the Moderna/Pfizer numbers hold up through June, and the Astra Zeneca and J&J vaccines come through, then the default assumption for September should be in-person instruction.
