Reading the Tee Leaves

"Torture numbers, and they will confess to anything." — Gregg Easterbrook

You may have missed the recently distributed “Golf Survey” results. If you did, please allow me to break it down for you here. When drafting this article, I looked up “quotes about numbers and statistics” and was surprised to find quite a few with a multitude of varying opinions. Here are some of the more famous (and funny) ones:

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp posts - for support rather than for illumination."

 — Andrew Lang

"Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital."

— Aaron Levenstein

Mark Twain probably had the most famous quote:

"There are three types of lies -- lies, damn lies, and statistics."

— Mark Twain

So, are statistics good? Are they helpful and useful? I tend to lean in the direction of these two quotes:

"It is easy to lie with statistics; it is easier to lie without them."

— Frederick Mosteller

"Do not put faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say."

— William W. Watt

Overall, the recent Golf Survey was extremely helpful and revealing. What I hope to do here is expose some previous false beliefs and carefully consider what they tell us and also note, like the quote up above, what they do not say. 

First, let’s look at the participation rate and then go over it question by question. 

52% participation, in an HOA setting, is a very good response rate. We were amazed when this most recent Golf Board was voted in with somewhere between a 55% to a 60% voter participation rate. I’ve been told by people in the industry that anything over 40% is a major engagement. This is also something to consider when talking about the so-called “recall.” That is why it is, and it should be, incredibly difficult to repeal duly elected officials from their positions. Disenfranchisement of the voter’s original determination is a very serious matter and should only be done in the rarest and most blatantly egregious cases. Petty arguments about utilizing open tee times, which is done standardly in all bundled golf communities, do not rise to that level. 

Furthermore, you will see from this survey that SEVENTY-ONE PERCENT of those surveyed desire open tee times to be sold to outside play in some manner! Therefore, it is absurd to be filing for a Golf Board recall on that basis while wasting more membership money. 

Chart #1: Type of Home

As the quote up above advises, we need to look at what this does “not say.” Let’s break it down by percentages:  

68.5% of single-family households voted.

55.9% of Coach/Veranda households voted

BUT:

Only 38:3% of Terrace condos voted

Chart #2 Response by Home Type: 

So, any stats in this survey should be viewed as significantly weighted by Single Family homeowners. That’s neither bad nor good, it’s just something we need to be cognizant of especially in light of the fact that the Terraces are in the MAJORITY when it comes to Golf homes! Take a look at these statistics.

360 Terrace Golf Homes representing 40% of the Golf homes in The National

304 Coach/Veranda Golf Homes representing 34% of the Golf Homes in the National

235 Single family Golf Homes representing 26% of the Golf Homes in the National

=899 total Golf door fronts

These responses are weighted exactly backwards with more Single-Family homeowners voting at a rate of 68.5% of respondents with only 26% of the ownership while CONDO owners voted at an average rate of 47% while owning 74% of the homes in the National. There are many possible reasons for this: Condos, in general, tend to be purchased more by investors and part-time owners. We call them “lock and leave” purchases. These owners may be paying less attention to what goes on in the community. Sadly, they MUST pay closer attention because they were the hardest hit by the last Golf Board’s radical and abrupt 47% increase in dues and abandonment of all outside play. 

NOTE: To all the Terrace, Veranda and Coach Home HOA Board members reading this data, please utilize this info to better engage your membership moving onward. Elections have consequences and these decisions are greatly impacting condominium owner’s property values as well as their ROI.

Chart #3: How did you learn about The National?  

Why is this important? It confirms that 84-85% of the people purchasing had not had a prior experience with a similar bundled golf community. Therefore, they relied heavily on what was told to them during the sales experience. Having personally witnessed well over a hundred of these Lennar presentations, they were told what a great investment these bundled golf properties are and how easy it is to rent them out when they are not utilizing the property themselves. They had zero clue that this ability to rent can be chipped away over time administratively by difficult to understand “transfer fees” (which don’t actually transfer the same member’s rights) along with different costs for member-transferees after paying this so-called “transfer fee.” That is by far the biggest elephant in the room. I am waiting for the other shoe to drop on this to see if this “bait and switch” Ponzi scheme ever makes it into a court of law challenge.

Chart #4: Do you own more than one home at The National? 

In my humble opinion, this is the clearest data in the entire report. Evidently, at least 20% of all owners, without a doubt are “investors.” There’s no other way to spin this info. It doesn’t matter what they do with the property, if you own more than one residential property in the same neighborhood, you are by definition an investor. This is BEFORE we tally up those investors who only own one property, which the rest of the data shows is quite significant.  

This next chart really surprised me.  

Chart #5: Age Range

EIGHTY-TWO PERCENT of the respondents were either “senior citizens” (above 62) or approaching retirement age soon. I would have guessed this wrong based on the number of families at the pool on any given weekend. Perhaps, that anecdotal evidence is skewed by the pool attendees being mostly those without private pools, and, therefore, mostly younger families with less buying power. If we learn anything from this statistic, it is that older residents must be cognizant that those in the less expensive properties are harmed most dramatically by incessant dues increases and special assessments as they can least afford them. They may also be those who are very busy and less likely to fill out a Golf survey. Let’s not throw the younger people and families under the bus with ever-increasing dues and assessments.  

Chart #6: Previous experience in a Golf Club. 

This number was about equal. What can we glean from this statistic? Perhaps, once again, a significant portion of the membership does not know what to expect in becoming a member of a Golf community while others may have more experience. This “disconnect” may be part of the reason for some of the dissension on both sides of the aisle.



Question #7: Personal Golf Playing History

Here, once more, we see a very dichotomous statistic:

42% play none, very little, or casually

58% play more seriously

Question #8: Golf Cart Ownership

This is where a major change for the benefit of the more active Golf homeowners may be an option. If we vote to allow “course compliant” Golf Carts onto the golf course, (which would reduce the cart fees for those owning Golf Carts) and increase the Golf cart fees for those without Golf carts, the full-time owners would have a way to reduce their Golf expenses, without unjustly foisting the expense on the backs of other less-playing owners. This way it would be fair for everyone. Do you want your Golf cart fee to go down? Then purchase a “course compliant” golf cart. 



Question #9: Golf Cart Parking @ The Hammock

On the surface, this seems to be a very popular item. If there is a way this can be done safely and in a monetarily responsible manner, then it seems that most of the homeowners would enjoy this change. Perhaps a feasibility committee discussing safety and finance issues on this particular item should be formed. 

This next slide is the one I want to discuss in the most detail.

Question #10: How do you use your Golf Home? 

For starters, the statement at the bottom of the chart is incorrect. If block #2 says "4-6 months," then we should not be interpreting that this statistic should be added in with block #1 "my primary residence." Anything under 5 months and 29 days means you spend more time elsewhere.

As one of the real estate agencies that has been around since the first shovel hit the ground, we have been blessed to personally meet almost 50% of the people that live in this community. Being here since Day 1, gives long-time realtors a very unique perspective that may provide valuable information for everyone. Therefore, we know that of the 44% who checked “my primary residence,” that does NOT mean that they live here 12 months out of the year. Many, many “full-time” residents go back and forth to their “other home” out of state. In fact, that is incredibly commonplace. So, when you see “my primary residence” you must instead read:

“I have declared Florida as my personal domicile which requires that I change all of my address data, my driver’s license, my registration, my insurance, my voter registration, my IRS filing status, etc. to the State of Florida and that I reside and can prove that I live here each year at least SIX MONTHS plus ONE DAY.” 

That’s it. Don’t read more into this statistic than that.

As I stated, since we personally know so many of the residents, a better question to ask (perhaps in the next survey) would be:

Do you live here 12 months out of the year? That would change this number dramatically. Even “primary residence” owners OFTEN rent out their homes when they are not here. So much for the “dreaded investor” caricature that is often painted of these landlord/homeowners. 

With the “DeSantis” tax proposal coming up for homestead properties (on the ballot in November), we must expect many more people to fall into this category. They will declare their Florida property as their personal domicile in order to capture that tax abatement and continue renting their homes out up to 5 months and 29 days a year (which is perfectly legal). 

Maybe this next question clarifies this situation a little better.



Question #11: Do you rent out your property? 

It gets a little dicey here:

80% don’t rent

21% do rent? (probably a rounding error).

Let’s assume 79% don’t rent and 21% do rent.

As we stated on Question #1, these stats are going to be somewhat “weighted” by the single family home responses (which rent their homes less often than the condos). 



This next chart is a very important indicator as well.

Question #12: Who utilizes the Golf in your household? 

A full 52% of Golf membership have NONE or only ONE member that plays Golf. So, 1279 x 52% = 665 door fronts are limited golf users. To state this a different way statistically speaking: 205 memberships DO NOT USE the Golf course EVER. 460 only have ONE member using the golf course. This is why the Golf course has so many open tee times. Whenever the “899” membership is thrown around too loosely, remember that 665 (205+460) of that is none or only one usage. 

This next Chart can be very deceiving and needs more info and context.



Question #13: How often do you play golf?  

A Google query indicates that “three times per week” is an avid golfer. This is another slide that should be tweaked if the survey is done again next year. Of the “7 or more times per week” people, can this be justified by asking the Golf shop to verify? It seems out of whack. 8% of the membership plays golf more than 1x per day? I still stand with my original estimate that "avid golfers"---those who play 3 or more X per week only range about 13-18% of the community. I would like to respectfully request that Duke and Ryan publish those stats to the entire community.

Also, what does “play” mean? Does it mean whacking a few balls on the driving range?

The stat that is missing here is HOW LONG are you here? You can’t play 4-7x per week if you are only here 6 months a year unless you are stating your play time elsewhere.

The final number of 18% "rarely or never" jibes with the previous slide of 16% who report NONE. 

Chart #14 Tee Time Availability Needs 

It seems that doing away with Social and/or Public play during January-March was a reasonable decision from this highly responsive Board. There is a high expectation of tee time availability amongst members for this time frame.  

Chart #15: Golf Importance vs. Amenities

Still a “great divide” here with 48% saying Golf is less important or equal to other amenities while 62% saying golf is more important. With the “skewed” percentage of single families voting here, it’s easy to suggest that this figure might truly be closer to the 50/50 mark if we got 100% participation, especially from The Terraces. It’s an area of great differing of opinions that we must be cognizant of. 

Chart #16: Who Wants Outside & Social Play?

Here’s the one we have all been waiting for and it was quite

the shocking eye-opener, especially in light of the so-called “recall” request: 

This recall petition was predicated on the faux “outrage” which FALSELY claimed this duly elected Board reinstated some outside play in direct opposition to the majority of the Golf membership. 

CLEARLY, and DEFINITIVELY, this is not true. SEVENTY-ONE percent of the Golf membership favored reinstating some outside play, especially on the periods when plentiful tee times exist.   

I think we need some REAL OUTRAGE that these petitioners wasted so much of our time and our money on a false premise! Please remember to vote to RETAIN the 4 members of the Golf Board who were not involved in this scheme.

Last, but not least, this final chart: 

This chart tells us a lot. First, there is a very significant portion of the golf membership that wants to see golf fees distributed more fairly. Those who don’t play very much have already absorbed the sucker punch of recent increases with a combined total of a 50%+ dues increase (which included a special 
"set aside" for reserves). The next move should OBVIOUSLY be to increase playing costs, so that those who PLAY more, PAY more. The 34% “unsure” category is also very telling. It seems the majority of us want to hear more from this Golf Board. We don’t want to recall the Golf Board as we haven’t had a chance yet to hear their thoughts and ideas! 

Summary of the data: 

Charts #1 &2) We need better engagement of the condo owners, especially the Terrace owners. Terrace HOA Board members, please do your part to engage your membership moving onward. Maybe joint meetings of all HOA Presidents and Board members are warranted next.

Chart #3) All Board members (of both the POA and the Golf membership) should be aware of how these properties were originally sold to the owners. Any “claw back” of promised rights will diminish values which we have seen play out already on MLS statistics. We should be looking for ways to EXPAND rights (through proper voting methods, of course) and not diminish them as doing so directly and negatively impacts home values. This chart also indicates that people buy here by personal experience and by “word of mouth” from family and friends. Keeping an enjoyable experience for visitors and a good reputation is INTEGRAL to building future home values. Bitter divisiveness and negativity towards visitors, snowbirds, landlords and social/public play is bad for everyone.

Chart #4) Obviously, investors are an integral part of this community. Let’s not ever forget that fact. They are not going away. They make up a strong component of the fabric of this community. 

Chart #5) The community appears to be heavily weighted by an aging population, which is very typical of the State of Florida in general. However, let’s remain cognizant of those below 55 and their needs as well. I think most of the people I speak to enjoy the diversity in this community as opposed to living in a 55+ community. Let’s embrace all age groups. I was excited to see the "Fire Truck" event recently for the small children of the community.

Chart #6 & 7) For approximately 50% of the ownership, this is their very 1^st time owning a Golf membership. More efficient training and explanation of Golf membership rules and expectations would be helpful for a large portion of the owners. Maybe there should be an outreach program to encourage more members to play. This would bring in more “inside” revenue and further reduce the need for public play. 

Chart #8&9) Perhaps allowing "course compliant" golf carts is a way forward to lower Golf Club costs while simultaneously offering "primary residence" owners a chance to lower their individual playing costs. This one probably goes hand-in-hand with more Golf Cart parking for cart owners. Ave Maria is quite unique in that it is the ENTIRE town, (not just The National) is Golf Cart friendly. This is an area for HUGE growth and revenue opportunities.

Chart #10) Obviously, there remains a distinct “dichotomy” of the types of people who live and own here. We need to seek a better understanding of both sides of the equation. A constant “see-saw” of election results will only result in more problems down the road. Compromise, when done by moral, intelligent and rational people, is not a dirty word. Let’s redefine this slide for next year’s survey. It needs to be tweaked in order to get better data. What does “full time” really mean?

Chart # 11) With at least 20% wanting to rent all or part of the time (and MLS stats suggest that figure is probably much higher), let’s not step on this portion of the community. What can be done to improve homogenized background checking, better enforcement of AirBNB violations, more cohesive application fees and rules/regs between the 18 different HOAs, and cost cutting by joining HOA forces? Remember: today you are NOT a rental property, tomorrow you MIGHT have to be. Don’t lose sight of how quickly life throws a curveball. 

Chart #12) We need a better cognizance of what “899 members” really means in a bundled golf community.

Chart #13) I would love for the Golf professionals to give us the “real” numbers. This can be obtained from the tee sheets. Plain and simple.

Chart #14 ) The Golf Course remains private from January – March, so let’s take down the temperature in the room, please.

Chart #15) Well run Amenities are important to everyone.

Chart #16) The VAST MAJORITY of Golf members want outside revenue, even the single family homeowners. This should be an eye-opening shocker. Vote accordingly.

Chart #17) People are looking for leadership on the revenue issues, not combative in-house fighting which is costing the membership a fortune in wasted time and money. 

Let’s end on a high note. 

This does not have to be contentious. All people must have a voice. Today you may be a non-investor, tomorrow you may have to be. We see people all the time get hit out of the blue by Death, Divorce, Disease and Distance (sudden relocation) EVERY SINGLE DAY. It is foolhardy to think your life cannot change overnight in an instant. This is not a “Debbie downer” statement (yes, I get the pun). These are the facts of life.  

So, statistics can shift all the time, but there is one thing that always remains constant….

CHANGE.

Do you have some good ideas? Please send them to the POA and the Golf Board for consideration. Always be respectful.

and that's my two cents...maybe three

Pursue the well-being of the city I have deported you to. Pray to the LORD on its behalf, for when it thrives, you will thrive.

~Jeremiah 29:7 (CSB)

THIS MESSAGE WAS BROUGHT TO YOU BY

THE COMMITTEE FOR FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY

~Advocating for all reasonable revenue streams to keep dues and assessments to a minimum and home values high. 

Thank you!

PLEASE SHARE THIS MESSAGE WITH YOUR NEIGHBORS!

Previous Op Ed Articles:

Snake Oil and Truth Bombs

They're Baaack!

You Wanna Pizza Me?

On the Golf Royalty and their Proclamations

Empty Is As Empty Does