Hello,

Mallory and I get along really well, but there’s one thing we constantly have a disagreement on.

I am warm natured. I was made for the artic north, because I don’t mind cold weather.

Mallory on the other hand runs cooler, so she likes to put a blanket on our bed that I’d say would only be appropriate if we lived in Antarctica. I roast at night when it’s on our bed. We're pictured below.
Also, I’m not stationary when I sleep. I may end up in a different direction by morning. In fact, when I was a kid, I often stayed with my grandparents. My grandfather was so tired of me kicking the covers off myself at night that he would get telephone wire from his basement workshop and tie the covers to the bed post to keep them on me.

My grandfather retired from the telephone company, and he worked on the old rotary phones in his spare time. He had spoils of telephone cord in his workshop.

I can’t help I move around when I sleep! But this drives Mallory nuts.

She says things like, “We are already sleeping with a lighter quilt then you pull the covers off me.” This is an ongoing saga at our house. This reminds of another ongoing saga… We're pictured below in our family pictures from our 2021 vacation.
The traditional definition of what a recession is two negative quarters of Gross Domestic Production (GDP). This means the economy slowed from growing. In August, by this definition, we entered a recession. A recession does not necessarily imply a stock market correction although they sometimes happen simultaneously.

We’ve seen a redefinition of recession happen since August, and some of the arguments that we are not in a recession may have merit.
Yahoo Finance ran an article on Monday from Brian Sozzi. He writes, “I'm sitting on Yahoo Finance Live on jobs report Friday, almost in a state of disbelief. Non-farm payrolls rose by an impressive 261,000. That didn’t strike me as a recessionary print. Then an economist sitting next to me says he sees a recession in 2023 and a 2% rise in the unemployment rate.”

The article went on, “’We have a recession call for next year,’ Deutsche Bank Securities Chief US Economist Matthew Luzzetti said. ‘For a while, we've had that call. We expect it to happen around the middle of next year. We have the unemployment rate rising to 5.5% by the end of next year.’”

What’s tricky is consumers have not seemed to figure out that we’re supposed to be in a recession or one is coming either. Starbucks reported a 11% increase in sales despite raising prices to combat inflationary pressure.

The article went on to say Mastercard’s CEO states “nothing in his business suggest a recession is imminent.” Sozzi concluded, “All of this brings me to think that perhaps recession talk is overblown. Maybe consumers will come out and spend, spend, spend this holiday season.” And I think that will be a tale tall sign for how impacted consumers have been. Sozzi pictured below.
To contrast this the Wall Street Journal recently had an article that stated shoppers are scaling back their purchasing and buying more affordable things. The article quoted a jewelry store owner. From the article, “She has noticed a shift in her customers’ buying habits in recent months to less-expensive silver jewelry from gold. That has prompted her to curtail her own spending.”

Despite this ambiguity we do know that the market is down this year, and folks who are near retirement or are in retirement with no financial planning may be in a less than favorable position.

The value of a written retirement income plan can’t be overstated when we confusing trends in the economy. It makes sense that as we are gliding into retirement to lessen our risk and begin transitioning to an income and distribution plan.

If done properly, a plan may even allow for increasing income in retirement. Sometimes when we try to create these plans ourself we can’t see the forest for the trees. And it may be hard to make sound decisions.
Questions? Call our office at 864.641.7955.
 
Until next week,

David C. Treece,
Financial Advisor

PS: Clients: look for an invitation in the mail SOON to our client appreciation Christmas Party! Also, we are going to have hor d'evours from one of my favorite Spartanburg restaurants: Blue Moon. If you didn’t see the details last week, Click Here.
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