A new Opportunity Washington poll* reveals Washington voters have grown increasingly worried about the direction of our state, about the health of the economy, and their personal financial health. The results from this November survey contrast with a poll we conducted last February. On all key measures, pessimism has grown.

In this newsletter, we share the results of the survey. In many respects, the results mirror those of recent national surveys that we cited in a blog post last week. In that post, we linked to a New York Times piece, which said,

Not for everyone, everywhere. As the results below show, there are still a lot of Washingtonians who think things are going well here. But now, there are fewer than there were in February. And this survey was conducted before the recent inflation spike.

Also, among key demographics, particularly those with lower incomes, those living outside relatively prosperous urban areas, those with less education, and older voters, majorities now believe their situations are fragile and deteriorating.

In these tough-and-worsening times, voters - including Independents and King County residents - are asking lawmakers to reduce taxes and spending, to let them keep more of their own money.

With the state budget now showing an $8.6 billion unrestricted balance, is that an unreasonable request?

Six out of ten Washington voters think the state is on the wrong track. In February, the survey showed nearly half of the population said things were headed in the right direction. Last month, that fell to 31%.

The slide below shows that Democrats, Independents, and Republicans are all now more pessimistic than they were in February. Just 20% of Independents and 6% of Republicans think things are going in the right direction.

About 50% of voters rank the economy very good or good, down from 57% in February. Those rating the economy poor or very poor have increased from 40% to 47%.

As the slide below shows, the ratings vary significantly within the state population, with King County residents, college graduates, those earning more than $100,000 a year, and Democrats giving the economy the best marks.

It's personal. The economy is not an abstraction. The survey shows 58% are worried about their personal financial situation; nearly a quarter are "very worried." This is something new and a departure from the national survey data. As we wrote in our Friday blog post, an Associated Press poll found 64% of Americans rate their personal financial situation as good.

Worries have increased for all age groups, but most sharply for older Washingtonians.

Since February, public sentiment regarding state taxes and spending has shifted dramatically. While overall, just a third of voters in February said that Washington should cut taxes and spending, that share increased to 51% in November.

Here's the question:

The following slide shows the increased sentiment for reducing taxes and spending in King County and among Independents.

Opportunity Washington is a partnership of the Washington Roundtable and Association of Washington Business, the two groups identified on the slides as sponsoring the survey. The poll was conducted by DHM Research November 8-11, 2021 as a hybrid survey (phone and text-to-online) of 600 Washington voters. Quotas were set by gender, age, areas of the state, education and race to ensure a representative sample. The results have a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4%.

Several of the blog posts below also focus on the economy and how it is affecting households. For example, Gallup finds inflation to be a major concern, with 45% of households experiencing hardship. Job openings remain at record highs, as unemployment claims are falling.

Given our poll findings, we want to call your attention to our report on a recent story in The Hill: Big tax cuts planned in many states. Washington appears to be an outlier. Again. No spoiler here, the headline says it all. From the story,

The governor releases his budget this week. More later.