Hello,

To keep you up to date on what the Real Estate Market did last year and how this impacts your homes value, I have put together this newsletter. My charts break down the statistics for Single Family Homes in the Plum Canyon area in comparison to Saugus for last year. Additionally, I have compiled some national "expert" predictions on what we may expect in 2022.

Everyone knows that 2021 was a great year in real estate. In fact, the Santa Clarita Valley had 4579 Homes sell last year. That number consists of both Single Family as well as Condo/Townhome sales. That is the most homes ever sold in the SCV.

Our Plum Canyon residential home prices and sales did very well last year. If you review the charts below, Plum Canyon Sold 165 Single Family Homes. The highest sale closed at $1,445,000. The average Sold price was $868,171 with a median Sold price of $863,000. Plum Canyon homes Sold for about 4.6% more than the overall Saugus price of $827,831 and come in at about 10% larger in size, averaging 2,548 sq.ft. for the average Plum Canyon home.

The charts below are for SOLD Signal Family Homes in 2021

Note: Median Price/Size:50% of homes are ABOVE the Median number and 50% are BELOW

Out of the 165 sales, 6.5% (11 homes) Sold at the listed price, 14.5% (24) Sold below the list price and a huge 79% (130 homes) Sold Above the asking price. Plum Canyon had an average DOM (days on market) of 12 days, while all of Saugus was about the same with an average of 13 DOM.

Also 10 of these sales were in the new Skyline Ranch area. Skyline Ranch does have a Mello Roos as well as a $250 HOA monthly fee. These homes are new and the area and amenities are quite nice. Also, the other area with Mello Roos in Plum Canyon are the KB Homes off of Golden Valley.

As of January 18, 2022, there are ONLY 5 Single Family Homes on the market in Plum Canyon. That is an extremely low amount. Also, these 5 are all seasoned listings, having been on the market from 52 days to 125 days, which is way over the average DOM.

Turning to what the 2022 Real Estate market might be as predicted by the National experts is somewhat varied, but overall it will be a great year for real estate.

Both Zillow and Realtor.com economists predict 2022 home sales will hit the highest level since 2006. However, National Association Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicts a slight drop in sales from 6 million to 5.9 million. According to Redfin’s Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather, “it certainly won’t be a buyer’s market” and "will hardly make a dent in the ongoing supply shortage".

Yun expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rates to increase to 3.5%, but noted that this is lower than the pre-pandemic rate of 4%. This is based on the Fed’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, that shows most members on the committee are expecting three .25% increases in the short term Fed Fund Rate in 2022. Fairweather predicts rates will rise from 3% to 3.6% by the end of 2022, equaling about a $100 per month increase for the median mortgage payment. However, as of the 3rd week of the new year the rates are already at 3.5% as they went up in the last week.

Economists do differ on what prices will do. Fannie Mae predicts that, after the 17.6% price rise in 2021, the median price of an existing home will rise 11.5% in 2022 to the national average of $387,000. A far cry from the the 2021 Plum Canyon average of $868,171.

So where are these buyers coming from? For us, it is greater LA County. Many of the buyer that I see buying the Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices listings are from outside of Santa Clarita. And, they seem to be exactly what Bank of America notes, which is, millennials are nowhere near done reaching the age for homebuying and are leading the charge to get into homes. The number of 35-44 year olds is set to increase by 5 million by 2030. They will want to buy and they will continue to fuel the demand. As rent prices increase, locking into a fixed low rate monthly mortgage is increasingly attractive. So, Zillow anticipates a value rise of 11%. 

But after the massive price increases in 2021 those predictions seem to be a bit bold to me. Redfin comes in lower and expects a 3% price increase with Realtor.com coming in with their prediction at 2.9 %.

So the question remains, how much will house prices increase? We certainly have our own big housing demand in Santa Clarita which offers far more to buyers than most areas in LA County. The SCV is looked at as a good deal with newer, nicer and lower prices than other areas in LA. And, we all know that demand combined with low inventory will keep prices up. We have a great demand and we have low inventory. But everyone has a different idea on where prices are headed. Since NAR is not a profit driven organization perhaps they have the best prediction. They surveyed more than 20 top economic and housing experts and concluded prices will increase by 5.7%.

I think that is more likely in line with reality, as it is also right about where prices have historically risen in California.

If you are thinking about selling or buying, please reach out to me so that we can discuss your details and the value of your property. My goal is to provide you with the very best service and successfully close your sale for the highest price the market will bear. With innovative Berkshire Hathaway marketing and my years of experience, I will successfully navigate you into, and then through the escrow process to make your dreams a reality.

Please Call/Text me at: 661-713-4546

[email protected]

Thank you!

Alex Woltman

Broker/Owner/Realtor

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices

California Properties

661-713-4546

25060 Avenue Stanford

Suite 150

Valencia, CA 91355

DRE#01243035

Data and information complied from SRAR and Inman news.