|
Today might be a big day.
I’m not talking your birthday… but if it is, happy birthday, anyway.
And, I’m not really talking about the first Monday in a new job, the start of retirement, getting married, or saying a farewell to a loved one. All important but not in the context of what I’m talking about.
Over the weekend it was trailed here and in the foreign press, that Charmer is going to make a speech telling us, ‘globalism is dead’.
If that’s right, expect the Daily Mail, to tell us:
‘We’re Taking Back Control, Again!’
PM vows to protect British workers.
Yada, yada? Well, maybe not.
If it’s true it will be a big, symbolic shift. The beginning of the end of international cooperation, open markets and free trade? Maybe, the death-knell for the WTO and the IMF?
More importantly for our everyday, it could mean supply-chain vulnerabilities, national security concerns and a redefinition of the politics around control, identity, sovereignty…
... let’s hope not jingoism.
Industrial policy will have to be revamped, as will trading partnerships. Expect industries to be subsidised and deals with ‘new friends’.
For you and me?
Expect ‘buy-British’ and a ‘Global Britain’, reset. If HMG tries to ‘re-shore’ manufacturing, our costs here are much higher than in low-cost countries.
If we introduce tariffs directly, moving away from global free-trade, expect import duties, regulatory misalignment, border delays…
... all of which adds to costs.
Expect Charmer to do something irrelevant like, subsidising electric vehicles in an attempt to fertilise the green economy… not that anyone will have the money to buy one!
And, the spectre of inflation.
The Trades Union Congress has worried about the sustainability of wage growth.
They forecast a potential 6.2% reduction in real wages over the next two years, equating to a loss of approximately £1,750 ph. The UK would experience the most significant real-wage squeeze among the G7.
If prices go up… too bad, particularly if you’re a nurse. Because…
… the NHS Pay Review Body has not yet released its recommendations regarding pay increases for the 2025-26 financial year.
They say the process has ‘experienced delays’. What does that mean?
Dunno…
I have no idea when the PRB will publish. Neither does anyone I’ve spoken to.
In anticipation of the PRB's eventual recommendations, the DH+ has ‘allocated’ a 2.8% pay rise for NHS staff, including nurses, for the 25-26 period.
But… even that has not found its way into wage packets. It's not been paid!
I’m guessing the 2.8% is based on HMG's assessment of economic conditions and budgetary constraints.
The PRB have been silent. Either they’re busy buying batteries for their calculator or they’ve been gagged.
The OBR, 2025 forecast average for inflation is ~3.2% - 3.75%.
If a nurse earns £32,000 per year a 2.8% pay rise puts £896 extra pa in their wage packet. If inflation is 3.5%, they’d need a £1,120 increase to maintain their standard of living.
This is important because…
… NHS nurses have experienced real-terms pay-erosion over the past decade.
Remember, they went on strike for 19%, pay ‘restoration’. Contrary to the advice of their leaders, RCN members accepted 5%.
They are well on the way back to the predicament that sparked the strike.
Plus, don’t forget the promised rejig of the Agenda for Change pay scales has been dumped, sidelined, parked, buried.
By the way the resident (junior) doctors, settled their ‘restoration’ strike for a bonkers two-year deal that got them nowhere near their target. They’ll regret not sticking out for a three year deal.
It looks to me, working people are in for a rough ride.
Not, of course, if you are a member of this cavalier government, holding-up the nurses pay-rise. They’re all-right-Jack.
The Prime Minister has his work suits and spectacles paid for by well-wishers and has hospitality footie and pop concert tickets. Altogether worth about £100,000!
The Deputy PM had her frocks and holiday paid for .
The Chancellor had a night out, for nothing.
The Foreign Secretary and Liam Conlon, add them to the list.
Good luck I suppose. But...
... if you can, doesn't mean you should. Nothing illegal... all declared but... well... call me old fashioned...
... it looks bad, really bad doesn't it?
Wezzzz… some bad times are comin' and they ain't far off... pay the nurses.
Today would be good.
| 
