Two Critical Battleground States in November

Pennsylvania and North Carolina

Partners4Democracy has been focusing on the seven states that will determine who the next President will be.  This month, we are focusing on Pennsylvania and North Carolina.  

Recent polls show Pennsylvania as a toss-up and give a small lead for Trump in North Carolina. In addition to the presidential race, both states have crucial statewide and down ballot elections.

Pennsylvania

In 2020, President Biden carried Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes, a narrow 1.2 percent margin in a state that Trump carried four years earlier by just 44,292 votes, seven-tenths of a percent.  Recent polls show the Biden and Trump essentially in a tie.    

Democrats fared well in the 2022 elections, flipping a U.S. Senate seat, holding the governor’s office, and shocking everyone by gaining control of the state House of Representatives for the first time since 2010 by a one seat majority.

This year, in addition to Democratic U.S Senator Bob Casey’s reelection bid, the entire state House and half of the state Senate are up, as well as three statewide offices, Attorney General, Auditor and Treasurer.

Senator Casey holds a small lead in the polls, but the Republican challenger, David McCormick, is extremely wealthy, and looks like a stronger candidate than recent Republican statewide choices.  The race is highly competitive.  In the U.S. House of Representatives, two of the nine seats held by Democrats – Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright – are tossups.  One of the seven Republicans have been targeted by Democrats - the seat held by Scott Perry, recent Chairman of the Freedom Caucus and an anti-abortion election denier. 

The Democrats’ hold on the State House of Representatives is precarious, which makes the ground game to get our people registered and voting critical over the next seven months.

If you want to support a group working to register and get out the vote in Pennsylvania, Partners4Democracy has vetted and recommends the New Pennsylvania Project.  You can contribute HERE.

North Carolina

According to Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, North Carolina is the most important “expansion” state in the 2024 election, a state Trump won by only three-tenths of a percentage point (74,000 votes) in 2020.  President Biden may well need North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes as a hedge against losing a state he won in 2020. 

Winning North Carolina will not be easy, but it is achievable. The dynamic new head of the North Carolina Party, Anderson Clayton, has said that North Carolina is not a purple state or a Republican state, it is an "unorganized state." And that is our opportunity: supporting robust boots-on-the-ground GOTV organizing.

Extreme Republican gerrymandering has led to a veto-proof General Assembly which perpetuates ever worse redistricting. The right-wing lock on the legislature allows passage of anti-abortion, anti-education, pro-gun legislation and more. It is essential – and possible -- to break the supermajority in the General Assembly in 2024 and to regain a Democratic majority (one seat) on the State Supreme Court.

In order to reverse the extreme gerrymandering in North Carolina so the state can return to the 50-50 partisan division of power reflective of its population, Democrats need to win the Governorship, State Assembly, State Supreme Court, and Office of the Attorney General – a tall but doable task. Fortunately, there are excellent Democratic candidates for all these offices.

State Attorney General Josh Stein (D) is running for governor against Lt. Governor Mark Robinson, one of the most extreme Trump-MAGA candidates. Stein has been an outstanding Attorney General and is well credentialed for a move up to the governorship. Robinson, by contrast, has called LGBTQ people “filth,” questioned whether the Holocaust and 9/11 happened, is rabidly pro-gun (“I got them AR-15’s at home”), and favors a complete ban on abortion in North Carolina. “Once you make a baby,” he has said, " it’s not your body anymore" and "Abortion is a scourge that needs to be run out of this land…”  Despite these positions, Robinson won the Lt. Governor’s race and is likely to be a formidable candidate for governor..

The race to replace Stein as Attorney General pits U.S. Congressman Jeff Jackson (D)   against U.S. Congressman Dan Bishop (R), author of the infamous “bathroom bill.” Here, again, is a race where the choice is clear.

In-state political strategists point out that a robust GOTV effort in Mecklenburg County alone (the Charlotte area) could make a huge difference in the outcome of the upcoming elections. There are an estimated 80,000 unregistered voters of color in “Meck” and an all-out effort is being made by grassroots groups to get these potential voters into the voting booth.

That is why Partners4Democracy recommends supporting this effort by contributing to the Carolina Federation.  You can contribute HERE.

The task is clear.  And the strategy is clear. We need to support efforts to get our voters to the polls.  This is your chance to make a difference in these two battleground states.