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September 14, 2025
Key Developments and What We're Discussing Today:
- Today, September 14, marks 709 days since October 7, 2023. The Hamas-led attack on Simchat Torah resulted in 1,182 fatalities (including 44 Americans) and over 4,000 wounded. 251 hostages (210 alive, 41 dead bodies) were taken during a day of brutal savagery and sexual violence. It was the largest single massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, with more than one in every 10,000 Israelis killed, and the third overall deadliest terrorist attack in the world to date.
- The 48 remaining hostages, 25 known to be dead, 20 thought to be alive, and three of unknown status, include the bodies of two Americans: Omer Neutra and Itay Chen. It is beyond outrageous that after all this time, they are still enduring torture and starvation in tunnels with no outside contact. It is beyond outrageous that no hostages have been released since June. Releasing the hostages is clearly not a priority for Trump and Netanyahu, but it's a top priority for us.
- All political violence is unacceptable, including Charlie Kirk's murder. But neither is Kirk a hero. He does not deserve the Presidential Medal of Freedom and he did not practice politics "the right way."
- Political violence is not a "both sides" problem. It's primarily a right-wing Republican Party problem, starting with its leader, Donald Trump.
- The Jewish Voters Resource Center released a major analysis answering key questions about the Jewish electorate, its voting behavior, and its views on a wide variety of issues.
- Last Chance: Politics with Dana and Steve is co-hosting an event on September 18 in Chicago with Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, the leading (and my favorite) candidate in the Illinois 9th congressional district Democratic primary. See below for details.
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Greetings!
All political violence is unacceptable, including Charlie Kirk's murder. Anyone who cannot unequivocally condemn his murder, let alone celebrating his murder, is un-American. Our views, Kirk's views, or the shooter's views do not change that judgment. His wife is now a widow and his children are fatherless. He did not deserve this, his family did not deserve this, and it is a tragedy on every level.
We should answer speech with speech, rarely with censorship and never with violence. Our democracy cannot survive if we let the threat of violence prevent anyone from sharing their views, and certainly not if we let violence silence anyone.
That doesn't mean Kirk deserves the Presidential Medal of Freedom that Trump announced on September 11 that he would give Kirk posthumously. Kirk's murder was abhorrent and wrong. But Kirk is not a hero because he was shot.
The Presidential Medal of Freedom is awarded to "any person who has made an especially meritorious contribution to (1) the security or national interests of the United States, or (2) world peace, or (3) cultural or other significant public or private endeavors."
Kirk defended Elon Musk against charges of antisemitism by engaging in antisemitism. Kirk did not shy away from who he was, and we shouldn't either. According to the Southern Poverty Law Center, his Turning Point USA's "primary strategy is sowing and exploiting fear that white Christian supremacy is under attack by nefarious actors, including immigrants, the LGBTQ+ community and civil rights activists."
Kirk did not deserve to die, but he does not deserve the Presidential Medal of Freedom. This is yet another Republican attempt to rewrite history, similar to their efforts to restore the reputations of Confederate traitors.
Charlie Kirk did not practice politics the "right way." If you read Ezra Klein's argument to the contrary, you owe it to yourself to read Jeremiah Johnson's short response. If you're not convinced, read Johnson's full piece. Still not convinced? Read this from David Corn.
Democrats are unequivocally condemning Kirk's murder. How many Republicans in Congress condemned the June 14, 2025 murder of Minnesota Speaker of the House Melissa Hortman and her husband by a Trump supporter? Hint: Not many, if any.
Trump did not order the flag flown at half-mast for Hortman as he did for Charlie Kirk, and Trump refused to call Minnesota Governor Tim Walz after the assassination.
Maybe we could lower the temperature if Trump ordered the flag flown at half-mast when Democrats were assassinated. Maybe we could lower the temperature if Trump attempted to bring us together instead of tearing us apart and fanning the flames in the immediate aftermath of Kirk's murder.
Maybe we should lower the flag half-mast for school shootings, but then flags would nearly always be flying at half-mast, a perpetual reminder of the GOP's failure to take gun violence seriously.
When Republicans can be bothered to condemn a shooting, they offer nothing but thoughts and prayers. I don't see any of the victims coming back to life. I only see more shootings and victims. Republicans refuse to back common-sense gun safety legislation, including restoring the ban on assault weapons that was working. The only part of the Constitution they seem to have read is the Second Amendment (except for the first 13 words).
After Trump blamed the shooting on the "radical left," we learned that the shooter was a Republican Trump supporter. According to the shooter's grandmother, the entire family is Republican. Once again, Republican thoughts and prayers did not work (what a callously insensitive statement from Utah's Republican governor, Spencer Cox). Meanwhile, Trump seems to have gotten over Kirk's death quickly.
Lost amid the coverage of Kirk's murder was another school shooting, this time in Colorado. The shooter was a white supremacist antisemite.
Understanding the Jewish electorate. Last week, the Jewish Voters Resource Center (JVRC) released an in-depth analysis of the Jewish vote that settles many questions about the American Jewish electorate.
JVRC is a non-partisan organization that conducts cutting-edge research on matters of importance to Jewish American voters, including domestic and foreign policy issues, as well as demographic studies and polling of the Jewish American electorate.
JVRC's 77-page analysis is worth reading in its entirety. These are some of the key findings:
- Kamala Harris did win 71% of the Jewish vote in 2024, which was nearly identical to Democratic performances in 2012 and 2016 (Biden's stronger performance in 2020 among Jewish voters was an outlier).
- The report confirms, through the first methodologically sound analysis of Jewish election turnout, that the percentage of Jews who turn out to vote is higher than that of the general population. Jewish Democrats turn out at higher rates than Jewish Republicans.
- Jews across denominations, age groups, and gender vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Orthodox Jews, who are only 9% of the Jewish electorate, are the exception.
- Younger Jews are less concerned about antisemitism, including on campus, than older Jews.
- Jews are more concerned about antisemitism from the right than from the left. Jews trust Democrats more than Republicans to fight antisemitism.
- 52% of Jewish Americans think Trump is antisemitic and that his actions are increasing antisemitism.
- Netanyahu has been seen unfavorably by Jewish Americans since 2020.
- A large majority of Jews support a two-state solution (Netanyahu and the GOP do not support a two-state solution).
If you want the facts on the Jewish electorate, read all of it.
Not all polls purporting to measure the Jewish vote are created equal. JVRC's analysis has a section that explains why different polls of the Jewish electorate sometimes yield different results. What follows might be a bit technical, but not too technical for readers of this newsletter, especially those who want to think intelligently about polling.
The answer lies not in who paid for the poll, but the poll's methodology. No reputable pollster is going to fudge the results because its clients want them to. It is possible that the client won't release unfavorable polling results. But a pollster that allows false results to be published in its name will not stay in business long. Dismissing a poll simply because you don't like the ideology of the pollster or the person paying for the poll is silly (dismissing a poll because the questions seem biased is another story).
The JVRC analysis explains that properly weighting for Jewish denomination (Orthodox, Conservative, Reform, and unaffiliated) is important. However, the discrepancy we often see between polls of the Jewish vote is primarily explained by whether the poll is specifically designed for a Jewish audience and whether it includes people who are Jewish but do not consider their religion to be Judaism. According to Pew Research, these Jews are 27% of the American Jewish population and vote disproportionately Democratic. Any poll that does not ask the proper screening questions to ensure they are included will not get an accurate picture of the Jewish electorate.
In addition, we should be wary of polls that try to draw broad conclusions based on precinct-level data or polls of certain neighborhoods, as they are usually not representative of the Jewish electorate as a whole.
We should also be suspicious of conclusions drawn from crosstabs of Jewish voters from polls not specifically designed to poll Jews. The margin of error for crosstabs is greater because the sample size is smaller, and crosstabs--especially in polls not designed to poll the Jewish vote--often do not accurately represent the population in question. (Crosstabs are breakdowns of survey answers based on particular variables, as opposed to "toplines," which are the polling results as a whole.)
Think about this the next time you see dueling poll results. If you can't tell from the information released about a poll whether its methodology was sound, it probably wasn't. Don't share polling results unless you are sure.
Upcoming Event. Alan & Andrea Solow, Jon Carson, Politics with Dana & Steve, and Mark & Margie Zivin are hosting Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, the leading candidate in the 9th Illinois congressional district Democratic primary (Rep. Jan Schakowsky is retiring), on Thursday, September 18, from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm CT, in person in Chicago. RSVP and contribute here.
In Case You Missed It:
- Arno Rosenfeld points out the flaws in the ADL's survey purporting to show that faculty in higher education report widespread antisemitism.
- When Democrats are in the White House, Republicans love to whine about "daylight" between the U.S. and Israel, as if two sovereign countries would never disagree. Disagree if you must, but at least keep it behind closed doors! But when it's Dear Leader airing the dirty laundry in public, not a word.
- Here’s a transcript of Trump’s “Rose Garden Club” speech. If you ever wondered what full-blown dementia and narcissistic collapse sound like, it sounds like THIS.
Tweets of the Week. Shannon Watts and Mikel Jollett.
Thread of the Week. Charlie Kirk in his own words.
Chart of the Week. Condemning Political Violence.
Video Clips of the Week. How Are the Very Rich Feeling About New York’s Next Mayor? and Leigh McGowan on Charlie Kirk's murder.
Vintage Music Clips of the Week. I never knew this until last week: Remember The Turtles' song "Happy Together"? Their subsequent hit, "Eleanor," was a parody of "Happy Together" that was never intended to be a hit.
For those new to this newsletter. This is the newsletter even Republicans have to read and the original home of the viral and beloved Top Ten Signs You're At a Republican Seder (yes, I wrote it). If someone forwarded this newsletter to you, why not subscribe and get it in your inbox every Sunday? Just click here--it's free.
I periodically update my posts on the IHRA definition of antisemitism and on why Democrats are better than Republicans on Israel and antisemitism. My definition of "pro-Israel" is here (it's a work in progress, as am I).
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