Green Bay's Population to Shrink? Not So Fast!

The recent draft of the Go Big Green Bay 2050 Comprehensive Plan seems to indicate that Green Bay’s population may decrease in the next twenty-five years. Yet, what goes into forecasting this type of figure? Here are some insights into what makes a projection plausible.



Forecasting the population of a city like Green Bay isn’t about predicting one fixed number — it’s about understanding the forces that will shape who lives, works, and raises families here. City planners, businesses, and community leaders need these projections to guide investments in housing, schools, healthcare, and infrastructure. Here are the key methods — and emerging signals — that can help us anticipate what Green Bay might look like in 2040.

1. The Cohort-Component Method

The backbone of population forecasting is the cohort-component method, which

projects how many people will be in each age group in the future. For Green Bay, this

means:

• Tracking births, as Wisconsin has seen declining fertility rates.
• Estimating deaths, with an aging Baby Boomer population that will reshape the

region’s age structure.

• Monitoring migration, which may be the biggest wildcard — will young

professionals move here for affordable housing, or will they leave for bigger

metros?



2. Trend Extrapolation

Looking at past patterns can provide clues. Green Bay’s steady but modest growth

could be extended forward using census data and housing permits. But trend

extrapolation alone may miss major shifts, like the impact of remote work allowing

professionals to live in smaller cities, or economic downturns that push people away.

Continue reading here

An Interview with Dave Wegge

Stories of Origin

By Tony Pichler

There he was—trapped! Dave Wegge and I were driving down to Brookfield in his SUV to join Devon Christianson and Randy Lawton in providing a workshop at the Wisconsin Non-profit Conference. Little did Dave know that I had an ulterior motive, not to mention a notebook and pen in hand. What was I seeking as the new Executive Director of

Envision Greater Green Bay? The story of how Envision moved from the Bay Area Community Council and its focus on producing community studies on various issues to the current focus of futuring and strategic foresight analysis. I was not disappointed. Dave provided the tale of transition.

In Dave’s words: “Devon Christenson was the President in 2016. We had one-year

Board Presidents back then and, of course, the organization was completely board led.

Devon held a strategic planning session led by Lee Bouche at the KI Center. Four

people who had been around since the beginning of the Bay Area Community Council

were invited to participate.”

Over time, memory sometimes fades. For Dave, who has been involved in so many

community initiatives, as well as his work at St. Norbert College, there has been a lot of

water under the bridge of life. So, the names of those who participated in that initial

session were a little foggy. However, Judy Crain, Dennis Rader and Dave himself definitely came to mind. The group was charged with visioning a future direction for the

BACC. Continue reading here

Going Shopping for School Clothes with

My 12 Year Old Granddaughter

by Jim Golembeski

High-waisted, baggy, flared jeans, neutral colors. Comfort. Birkenstock sandals were essential. And they have to be worn with Nike socks.

My wife and I got to spend two days shopping with our granddaughter, and it was a wonderful chance to get a glimpse into her tweener brain. Seventh grade is an important time to start developing interests and habits that will lead to a successful career. I think she still has veterinarian as a top choice, but I think the next few years will broaden her options. Gen Z has watched the Millennials struggle in the workforce with college degrees in the social sciences and college debt. They are more realistic about careers.

A little workforce history: back in the 1980s, our K-12 schools largely eliminated what were called “shop classes,” i.e. training for the trades, to emphasize four-year college education instead. Those jobs in the trades belonged to the Baby Boomers and there were plenty of Boomers to meet the need back then. By the turn of the century, the Boomers started retiring and there was little training capacity to replace them in the trades. Factoid: in 2005, Lakeshore Technical College serving Manitowoc and Sheboygan Counties, one of the most intensive manufacturing regions of the country, did not have a welding program! At Bay Area Workforce Development Board, we helped them start one. Learn more here

Save The Date

Keynote Presenter

Garry Golden

Foresight You Can Use

Every 50 years or so, according to Kondratieff wave theory, capitalist economies reorganize themselves around a new technological foundation, sparking the rise of new business ecosystems. Where are we now in that cycle? What might the next foundation look like?

https://www.futuresplatform.com/blog/kontratieff-cycles-shift-in-technological-platforms-business-ecosystems

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