President Trump has seized on the government shutdown in Washington, D.C., as a unique opportunity to pursue a broad swath of foreign policy goals. In the past two weeks, the President has made major international policy news with at least a dozen foreign countries (outlined below). Here’s more on the President’s agenda and what it means. 

Shifting Focus Abroad  

Rather than engage with Congressional Democrats by negotiating the current federal government shutdown in the court of public opinion, President Trump has turned his focus to foreign policy. His decision has allowed him to guide the national media narrative while many domestic government functions are shut down. The White House believes the foreign policy wins demonstrate effective leadership while Congress bickers.  

Inside the White House, staff appear to be pleased with the strategy. There has been polling in recent days that suggests President Trump is not facing political repercussions from the shutdown to the same extent that he did during shutdowns in his first term.  

Policy Analysis 

Shutdown and ACA Subsidies: The ongoing government shutdown is simply not a top priority for the White House. That means they are unlikely to step in to the negotiate with Democrats. Republicans in Congress will continue to lead the discussions and their offer is unlikely to change: if Democrats will turn on the government, Republicans will negotiate Obamacare subsidy extensions. Our own Marc Short predicted that Republicans will fold on the subsidy extension this year. Reports indicated that those conversations are happening behind the scenes. The question is, when do Democrats give in? We believe it will be after the higher 2026 Obamacare insurance premium rates are released on November 1.  

Trade Negotiations with China: The perceived political benefit from foreign policy wins likely increases the President’s desire to get a deal with China. A durable and durable deal with President Xi Jinping would be a headline victory for the White House, presumably boost the economy, and help President Trump justify his tariff policy (potentially against the backdrop of a rebuke from the U.S. Supreme Court). Even if there are unforeseen bumps in the road or further delays, we have long predicted that a China deal is coming.  

The Foreign Policy Blitz 

Below is a look at President Trump’s foreign policy “blitz” that has occurred over the past few weeks, and what we expect to continue throughout the end of the year.  

Israel: President Trump helped to outline and negotiate the ceasefire agreement a between Israel and Hamas. The subsequent hostage releases ended a crisis which began over two years ago. Last week, the President traveled to Israel to celebrate the ceasefire and became the first president since former President George W. Bush to address the Israeli legislature.  

Russia: After going back and forth, President Trump has now indicated that there are no plans “in the near future” for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, after initially considering an upcoming meeting in Budapest, Hungary. In the interim, Trump has signaled support for bipartisan sanctions legislation pending in the U.S. Senate to pressure the Russian government. 

Ukraine: President Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week, who described their recent meeting as “positive.” The Presidents discussed sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, which is still on hold for the time being.  

Venezuela: For weeks, the United States has been conducting military action against narco-terrorists in the Caribbean Sea off the coast of Venezuela. The President also authorized CIA operations within Venezuela to address the flow of illegal drugs. 

Colombia: The President has also been criticizing Colombia for its failure to address illegal drug production in its country. This culminated in a Truth Social post stating all payments and subsidies to Colombia would end. 

Asia Tour: The President will travel to Asia at the end of this week to meet with leaders, potentially including Chinese President Xi. The details of the itinerary have not yet been publicly communicated President Trump will us the opportunity to make news and put Democrat messaging on the backburner.  

China: In the last few weeks, China and the U.S. have both been pushing and pulling trade levers before the looming November 10 tariff deadline, including increasing broad-based tariffs and new export controls on rare earth minerals. He is currently scheduled to meet with President Xi while he is in Asia.

North Korea: The President is reportedly considering a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jung Un during his upcoming trip to Asia, to “make relations better.” Those considerations might take a hit given North Korea’s ballistic missile tests today.  

Australia: Earlier this week, the U.S. and Australia signed an agreement between the two countries on critical minerals, a direct effort to counter China’s threats to limit exports. The deal invests $3 billion in critical mineral projects in the next six months, including $2.2 billion in financing from the U.S. Export-Import Bank and investment from the U.S. Department of War in the construction of an advanced gallium refinery in Australia.  

Canada: Reports this week have indicated that President Trump could be on the verge of finalizing a trade deal with Canada on aluminum, steel, energy, and other mining products.  

As always, if you have questions about these or any other policy topics and would like to schedule a meeting or call with Marc and Andy, please email us.