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PDF | Research | Week of Jun 9 2025

Quote of the Week

“We are witnessing a significant shift in global markets as assets move from bank balance sheets to funds and investors.”

- Robert Fauber, president and CEO, Moody’s.

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Letter from Tokyo (First of a Series)

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Episode 10: Jess Larsen, CEO of Briarcliffe Credit Partners


“Mid-market lending will continue and will always be the core income component of a private credit portfolio.” - Jess Larsen

Private Credit – The Final Reckoning

(First of a Series)

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Moviegoers know that Tom Cruise “does his own stunts.” We always assumed this mostly meant riding motorcycles fast. And even watching his Mission Impossible and Top Gun acrobatics over the years, we figured riskier sequences involved some kind of green screen technology. Until we saw practice runs for his motorcycle jump on the latest MI thriller.


This astounding daredevil performance (Cruise did six takes to get the perfect shot) was not even the highlight stunt of the film. Yet it shows how with repetition comes reputation. In the world of private credit, experienced managers have been executing tricky maneuvers for years, with a select few doing so before and through the GFC. Practicing the minutest details of sound underwriting and careful portfolio construction eventually pays off in premium track records. 


Last week we attended Moody’s first New York private credit conference – Credit Frontiers 2025. Panelists see growth, convergence, and risk as major themes for the asset class. Other dynamics include liquidity, leverage and transparency. Convergence means partnerships with significant asset users such as insurance companies leading to more innovations. It also suggests private markets will look a lot more like public markets, and vice-versa...


Chart of the Week

Mission Unstoppable

Private credit AUM expected to continue steady growth, driven by direct lending. 

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Source: Fitch Ratings, Preqin

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Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights

US Leveraged Loan Issuance Picks Up in May, Accelerates in June

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May's 41 deals for $31.6b was up $21.4b, or 210% from April’s $10.2b, bringing year-to-date volume to $381b (down 31% from last year). In percentage terms, May’s rebound from April is the strongest since last September when issuance jumped over 252% off August’s low. However, despite that big percentage gain, May remains the second-lowest issuance month of the year in absolute dollars...


Contacts: Vincent Daigger, Lara Wieczezynski/ Bloomberg

PDI Picks

European unitranche market shows resilience

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The deal total for the first quarter was well ahead of last year’s equivalent, with the Benelux region particularly active. 

If you look back over the last 12 years (see chart), it’s clear that the European private debt market has been dominated by the UK, France and Germany, which have accounted for around 70 percent of all transactions between them...


Contact: Andy Thomson / Private Debt Investor

Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Loan funds post 4 consecutive weeks of inflows

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Following the bout of market volatility and accompanying large outflows posted in April, both loan funds and high yield bond funds have turned the corner and posted inflows in recent weeks as investor sentiment improved across asset classes...


Contact: CJ Doherty / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

Share of buyout inventory by industry (top 15)

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A clear concentration of buyout inventory resides in four sectors: software, commercial products and services, and healthcare services...

Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Private Credit’s Growing Complexity Untested Through Market Cycles

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Download Report


Do Banks Face Financial Stability Risks from Private Credit (PC) Exposure?


The financial stability risks from banks' direct exposure to PC are currently limited despite its rapid growth over the last several years. This is largely due to the typical structure of PC lending that involves closed-end funds with committed capital, generally low fund-level leverage, and the banks’ superior position in the capital structure. Further, a downturn in the PC sector is unlikely to pose financial stability risks for the largest banks. Direct exposure represents less than 30% of equity, on average, for large banks although some smaller banking institutions have elevated PC concentrations...


Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Average Free-and-Clear as a Multiple of Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 11.1% as of 6 June) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, are lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans). The brown line displays the BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield (currently at 7.25% as of 6 June, down from its latest one-year peak of 8.5% on 7 April), which tracks the performance of USD denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US...


Contacts: Suneet Chandvani/ Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.