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PDF | Research | Week of Jun 23 2025

Quote of the Week

“Narratives come and go. But the only north star is earnings growth — and in the US it’s still far superior.”

- Fahad Kamal, chief investment officer, Coutts (FT). 

 
 

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Letter from Tokyo (Last of a Series)

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Private Credit – The Final Reckoning

(Third of a Series)

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We spoke recently to a C-suite executive of a global specialty chemicals company about how tariffs are affecting his business. He outlined his strategy to expand production in the US, but also how these plans were being stymied by the cost of importing equipment.


“There are some things today, cranes for example, that are only manufactured in China and Germany,” he told us. “You can’t get them here. And now tariffs make this equipment prohibitively expensive. It’s affecting our ability to grow here, production that would add hundreds of good jobs. I imagine this type of thing is happening across the country.” 


The impact of tariffs, despite post-Liberation Day softening of some policies, is real. National policies are typically designed to fix problems, not create them. We are a source of global instability, not stability, a top economist told a private markets audience last month...


Chart of the Week

The Comeback Kid

Since the 2021 peak, global M&A activity has been on the rebound. 

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Source: LSEG

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Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights

Leveraged loan prices continue to climb in secondary market

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Average secondary market prices on US Leveraged loans reached 96.44 on June 25th, the highest level since March 17th according to the Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index...

Contact: Vincent Daigger/ Bloomberg

PDI Picks

Families turn to private credit 

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The asset class is moving beyond its traditional institutional investor base. 

Where insurance firms, pension schemes and other institutional investors have ventured en masse, family offices are increasingly dabbling in what, for many of them, is a new area. Their average allocation to private debt doubled from 2 percent to 4 percent last year, according to UBS’s Global Family Office Study 2025 (see chart)...

Contact: Andy Thomson / Private Debt Investor

Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

How do middle market lenders characterize the quality of 2Q25 loan supply?

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According to preliminary results from LSEG LPC's quarterly middle market lender outlook survey, a large majority (81%) of respondents say they were not able to lend as much as they wanted in 2Q25...

Contact: CJ Doherty / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

PE Index quarterly returns

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Preliminary Q4 2024 returns suggest a quarter of weaker performance, potentially tilting the yearly returns for 2024 back into single digits...

Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Private Credit’s Growing Complexity Untested Through Market Cycles

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Download Report



What are Key Trends to Watch for BDCs?


Fitch’s 2025 sector outlook for BDCs remains ‘deteriorating’ as continued spread pressure and additional non-accruals will likely weaken earnings and dividend coverage for BDCs in 2025...

Contacts: Brad Hamner, Brian Harris / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Percentage of Loans with MFN Carveouts

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 11.1% as of 20 June) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, are lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans)...

Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

June Update: Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.