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Every big theatrical release eventually makes its way to streaming. It gives people who missed it in theaters a chance to catch up. And for those who already saw it, a second look at the details they missed the first time. The Lead Presents: Making Sense of Private Credit Defaults had its own debut the other week, drawing more than 700 registrants for a conversation with all four major rating agencies on how they calculate and measure defaults. With the replay now live, we wanted to walk through a recap of our conversation. Here are the key scenes worth revisiting.
The session picked up right where Different Numbers, Different Stories left off. The reason default rates range so widely is that everyone's measuring something slightly different. One firm may focus on missed payments. Another might include distressed exchanges like maturity extensions and PIK amendments. The universe itself can differ in composition, whether in size, how it's weighted (by issuer or by volume), or whether it includes loans further down the capital stack rather than those most senior. As one panelist framed it, these differences don't mean one rate is more right than another. They each serve a purpose, because it's a non-homogeneous market...
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